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Polar Low
16 July 2013 09:12:13

Thanks Martin

Polar Low
16 July 2013 09:23:55

little shift east from ecm at 500 if that came off possable concerning extreme heat likely at that range likely imo


 


 


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Polar Low
16 July 2013 09:31:51

a1 post Steve 1976 was a bit like that we had little breakdowns but things soon became very hot again soon after also that great summer got off to quite a slow start so we have the add bonus of having a quite very warm start to summer 2013.


 


quote=Gusty;513831]


The trend of a few days ago to bring a cooler and potentially more unsettled W or NW'ly flow after 24th July is becoming less favoured as we approach the more reliable timeframe.


As Stormchaser correctly eluded last night pressure does leak away but this is not uncommon, infact the record heat in August 2003 resulted when high pressure slowly collapsed in favour of a vast but slack continental heat low. 


What is apparent is that there is no atlantic onslaught for the foreseeable anywhere in the models, instead we appear to be faced with a continution of this very warm, locally dry hot summer pattern now into August.


A reduction of pressure does not mean unsettled and cooler weather in the middle of summer, infact it could very well result in increased heat, humidity and more in the way of local thundery episodes in the longer term as a result of a great reservoir of surface heat feeding into the upper heat low.


Fascinating output now, thats for sure. 


ARTzeman
16 July 2013 09:41:29

Looking through the charts took a lot of time...Did like the high pressure on GFS....So good month for sun into August is well liked...School summer holidays will be okay to start off with...






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Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Hungry Tiger
16 July 2013 09:44:12

Good morning folks. Here is todays morning walk through guide to the outputs issued at midnight on Tuesday July 16th 2013 for the UK.

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

Hi Gibby, Have you stopped posting your summaries on Netweather?

Originally Posted by: danm 

Yes I have for no particular reason other than time taken copying and pasting each night and morning to multiple forums plus I feel TWO is the best Weather forum in the UK. You guys now have exclusivity outside of my website as a result.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 



Thanks - that's an excellent compliment Martin. Much appreciated.


 


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


16 July 2013 09:47:02

GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolution 

Polar Low
16 July 2013 09:49:19

Was thinking that too hopeful partner wont go crazy earlier on in school holidays as no need to be indoors like last year was also thinking about booking another hoilday in uk this time for wind surfing in August, thinking I will  might do so at the mo always did love Holywell bay.


 


 



Looking through the charts took a lot of time...Did like the high pressure on GFS....So good month for sun into August is well liked...School summer holidays will be okay to start off with...


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

nickl
16 July 2013 10:29:12


GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolution 


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


no chance matt. possibly a 32 but cant see any more than that.

16 July 2013 10:32:09



GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolution 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


no chance matt. possibly a 32 but cant see any more than that.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Well I reckon somewhere might scrape a 33 but that GFS for tomorrow is impressive!

My guess for the highest temperature for July in the prediction thread was 31.4 degrees and that is bang on so far but I can't see it lasting long

Rob K
16 July 2013 10:34:23



GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolution 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


no chance matt. possibly a 32 but cant see any more than that.


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


GFS showed 32 and 33 a couple of times on the high-res charts for last weekend and in the event the highest was 31.4C. Having said that who knows what the highest temps would actually be if there were official recording stations in every town of the UK. With such a sparse recording network there's no way we actually see the highest temperatures "officially".


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome
Matty H
16 July 2013 11:01:33



GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolutionUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


no chance matt. possibly a 32 but cant see any more than that.

Originally Posted by: nickl 


Well I reckon somewhere might scrape a 33 but that GFS for tomorrow is impressive!

My guess for the highest temperature for July in the prediction thread was 31.4 degrees and that is bang on so far but I can't see it lasting long UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 



Did you predict this on your Facebook pages? ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜‰


I think you might be ok. I agree with Nick (remember that one?) I don't see anywhere breaking 32c anytime this week, but who knows? Small alterations in the placement of the high will affect temps.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogynyย 
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Zubzero
16 July 2013 12:04:40

NAE show's 31C for London tomorrow, so somewhere around there may scrape a 32


The weekend is my bet for more widespread 30s as the high builds and moves north


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

Gavin P
16 July 2013 12:39:17

Hi all,


Here's todays video update;


July Heat Followed By August/September Look-Ahead;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Temps look to peak tomorrow, then slide down a bit (still very warm) before potentially building again early next week when it could become very hot!


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
16 July 2013 12:46:56

GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolutionUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

no chance matt. possibly a 32 but cant see any more than that.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Well I reckon somewhere might scrape a 33 but that GFS for tomorrow is impressive! My guess for the highest temperature for July in the prediction thread was 31.4 degrees and that is bang on so far but I can't see it lasting long UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: nickl 

Did you predict this on your Facebook pages? ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜‰ I think you might be ok. I agree with Nick (remember that one?) I don't see anywhere breaking 32c anytime this week, but who knows? Small alterations in the placement of the high will affect temps.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Not the 31.4 degrees (I'm not that brave ) but I did say the weekend would produce the highest temperatures so far and that it could reach 32 somewhere to the west of London today and 33 in a similar location tomorrow (Come on Heathrow!). 


BBC latest video forecast said 32 today and 33 tomorrow. There goes my prediction then

Matty H
16 July 2013 13:07:41

GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolutionUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

no chance matt. possibly a 32 but cant see any more than that.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Well I reckon somewhere might scrape a 33 but that GFS for tomorrow is impressive! My guess for the highest temperature for July in the prediction thread was 31.4 degrees and that is bang on so far but I can't see it lasting long UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Did you predict this on your Facebook pages? ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜‰ I think you might be ok. I agree with Nick (remember that one?) I don't see anywhere breaking 32c anytime this week, but who knows? Small alterations in the placement of the high will affect temps.

Originally Posted by: nickl 


Not the 31.4 degrees (I'm not that brave UserPostedImage) but I did say the weekend would produce the highest temperatures so far and that it could reach 32 somewhere to the west of London today and 33in a similar location tomorrow (Come on Heathrow!).UserPostedImage
BBC latest video forecast said 32 today and 33 tomorrow. There goes my prediction then UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 



Maybe, we'll see. As Gav has alluded to above, early next week is potentially very hot. One to watch
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogynyย 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Gooner
16 July 2013 13:09:49

Start of next week looks very hot indeed


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


16 July 2013 13:09:56

GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolutionUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

no chance matt. possibly a 32 but cant see any more than that.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Well I reckon somewhere might scrape a 33 but that GFS for tomorrow is impressive! My guess for the highest temperature for July in the prediction thread was 31.4 degrees and that is bang on so far but I can't see it lasting long UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Did you predict this on your Facebook pages? ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜‰ I think you might be ok. I agree with Nick (remember that one?) I don't see anywhere breaking 32c anytime this week, but who knows? Small alterations in the placement of the high will affect temps.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Not the 31.4 degrees (I'm not that brave UserPostedImage) but I did say the weekend would produce the highest temperatures so far and that it could reach 32 somewhere to the west of London today and 33in a similar location tomorrow (Come on Heathrow!).UserPostedImage BBC latest video forecast said 32 today and 33 tomorrow. There goes my prediction then UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: nickl 

Maybe, we'll see. As Gav has alluded to above, early next week is potentially very hot. One to watch

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Yeah, the GFS has consistently looked very hot as we head into next week after a slightly cooler weekend (though warmer for the north). Would love a Spanish Plume so we could smash some records but don't see that happening. Will have a look at Gavin's video later.

Sevendust
16 July 2013 13:11:20


GFS has a thin strip across southern England of around 33-34 degrees for tomorrow (going by the colouring rather than the numbers). Somewhere could scrape a 35 on the basis that the GFS is quite low resolutionUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

no chance matt. possibly a 32 but cant see any more than that.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Well I reckon somewhere might scrape a 33 but that GFS for tomorrow is impressive! My guess for the highest temperature for July in the prediction thread was 31.4 degrees and that is bang on so far but I can't see it lasting long UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Did you predict this on your Facebook pages? ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜‰ I think you might be ok. I agree with Nick (remember that one?) I don't see anywhere breaking 32c anytime this week, but who knows? Small alterations in the placement of the high will affect temps.

Originally Posted by: nickl 


Not the 31.4 degrees (I'm not that brave ) but I did say the weekend would produce the highest temperatures so far and that it could reach 32 somewhere to the west of London today and 33 in a similar location tomorrow (Come on Heathrow!). 


BBC latest video forecast said 32 today and 33 tomorrow. There goes my prediction then


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Agreed Matt - I think 33'C is well within range tomorrow. Locally a tad warmer here today and tonight will be hotter giving a higher starting point. Classic heatbuild scenario

Super Cell
16 July 2013 13:12:41

Maybe, we'll see. As Gav has alluded to above, early next week is potentially very hot. One to watch

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I think that there will be a fair 'down pour' in the Bristol area on Monday...


Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
16 July 2013 13:18:59

29.7 at Heathrow so far. Going to have to go some over the next few hours to reach 32 but at least my guess in the prediction thread would last another day

Stormchaser
16 July 2013 14:20:07

Whew... busy day today, only managed to sneak a peak at the GFS 00z this morning, noting the continued trend towards a later breakdown.


Catching up now and the ECM 00z is a sight to behold, all thanks to energy SW of Greenland going SE from day 4 to day 5 rather than NE - the kind of late adjustment that we've often seen with sliding lows in winter, except that it's occuring way out to our west and the effects for the UK are to boost our high pressure by supporting it from beneath rather than applying pressure on it from above. The result is proper high pressure dominance right out to day 10 combined with the trough near the Azores threatening to pump up some even hotter air to the UK .




Then the 06z GFS op run came into agreement regarding that energy SW of Greenland . What a morning it must have been to watch unfold, shame to have missed it


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A3K
  • A3K
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2013 14:30:29


Whew... busy day today, only managed to sneak a peak at the GFS 00z this morning, noting the continued trend towards a later breakdown.


Catching up now and the ECM 00z is a sight to behold, all thanks to energy SW of Greenland going SE from day 4 to day 5 rather than NE - the kind of late adjustment that we've often seen with sliding lows in winter, except that it's occuring way out to our west and the effects for the UK are to boost our high pressure by supporting it from beneath rather than applying pressure on it from above. The result is proper high pressure dominance right out to day 10 combined with the trough near the Azores threatening to pump up some even hotter air to the UK .




Then the 06z GFS op run came into agreement regarding that energy SW of Greenland . What a morning it must have been to watch unfold, shame to have missed it


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Well described Stormchaser  My mouth is watering at the prospect of even hotter air. If anything is missing from this glorious weather spell, it's some real hot heat! 


Andrew.
Born in the USA.
UserPostedImage


Hungry Tiger
16 July 2013 15:15:03


Hi all,


Here's todays video update;


July Heat Followed By August/September Look-Ahead;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Temps look to peak tomorrow, then slide down a bit (still very warm) before potentially building again early next week when it could become very hot!


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 



 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


RavenCraven
16 July 2013 15:23:11

It would be astonishing if it gets hotter as it currently feels like I am abroad, a real hot dry heat day after day. The output today is brilliant if you like hot weather. 

Islander
16 July 2013 15:26:59


It would be astonishing if it gets hotter as it currently feels like I am abroad, a real hot dry heat day after day. The output today is brilliant if you like hot weather. 


Originally Posted by: RavenCraven 


 


Couldn't agree more, baking hot, grass going brown, lovely nights on the deck supping a cold beer in a warm breeze. But looking at the models it is certainly possible that it will get hotter. I would be very surprised if somewhere in the UK didn't hit +32C or even +33C at some point in the next 7 days. 


Guernsey
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