for midlands take with open arms

take with open arms rain below average

good night all been on here many hours partner spiting blood like gm chart

Hottest chart I've ever seen 22c uppers equals the uppers for August 03 when we hit 100f.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

GEM actually hits 24c uppers at 174h.

Holy moly!! that's some chart 

Very very hot if verified

I think we need to hold back on the excitement just a tad-

THe charts arent record breaking, but certainly appear to be homing in on a plume that gives a glancing blow to the UK, the northern & western extent still unclear.

Its safe to say though as the models start approaching t96 the prospect of that 20c isotherm filtering into the UK looks good odds,

With breaking records though 1 or 2 days of this plume wouldnt suffice, you need sustained conditions where the heat gradually builds in situ rather than a plume that dramatically increases temps to a record level- I would allign it with the frequency of the UK seeing the -15c isotherm in winter.

If the projected plume lands then this type of profile indicates to me 35c being the marker, maybe 36 or so if we get a bit more sustained heat, but the minute the atlantic digs east its goodbye heat.

Im more interested in the storm potential, however its an attractive proposition seeing the 20c isotherm in 5 days whem im on hols for 2 weeks at T48

regards

S

Come on get 40C here!  I got 35C last Monday at 16-17C uppers because the very dry warm ground help that.

I really got a hunch that we will get very high temps at some point very soon and good to see most models going for that for 6 days away since now is Friday night here.

We truly deserved to get some very high temps with some records to be broken and let us get our turn after European and N American had their very hot summers in 2007-2012

Doesn't ruin anyone as it will be on the record and seeing other countries already had record broken when we suffered cool wet summers so we deserve our turn. 

Probably not, because as Big Steve Murr suggests to get temps that high, 38-40c I think you need the kind of "oven effect" we got in 2003 when heat sustained itself for many days and it just got hotter and hotter.

Nevertheless these are quite a remarkable charts and if we had temps as high as 40c in northern France for instance all bets would be off.

Indeed. IMO we've had more than a decent summer so far; the fantastic spell of the two weeks or so prior to Tuesday just gone saw to that. 29C was reached in various places in Scotland too; that hadn't happened much if at all since the hot July of 2006.

Indeed, like those famous northerlies in winter, a bit of a toppler, nothing sustained. Interesting to experience though!

I've never been able to grasp this concept of "deserving" weather Have we recently been on the naughty step and somehow got back in favour?

Its a weather forum though, not a 'pleasant, lovely and mild' forum.

Surely we all want extremes in some form or another? I would love to see 40C breached, but only once. Once is enough!

High 20s temps are hot enough for me in summer, a la during the recent heatwave up here. No extremes for me thanks.

I want to see an August blizzard and 40C in the same week 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130726/18/165/h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130726/18/165/ukmaxtemp.png

Closer to the ECM 12z op run from the 18z GFS op run.

Comes up with 33°C maximum but over a broad area that includes London - so a local 35-36°C would is not an unreasonable interpretation. 

It's still a bit below the ECM values. If you take the areal coverage of the 20°C isotherm as a rough guide then ECM looks to be bringing 33°C+ across most of England, with 37°C or so in the London area... but only if the skies are reasonably clear! Continental thunderstorms could produce a lot of cloud to interfere with proceedings.

While the output is still at the sort of range where expecting an extreme event is foolhardy, I can't help but hypothesise about it...

The big deal about the ECM run is that the uppers probably cross 20°C across much of the south early on Thursday night, with a very hot and humid airmass easily capable of producing widespread 20°C minimums, perhaps a few degrees higher in major urban areas. From such a warm starting point, it's easy to see how temperatures could soar towards the record high levels - one could anticipate mid-20's by 7am in some places if it was sunny.

Now try to contemplate what conditions would be like under the region of 28°C uppers... dangerous for some. For this reason I can't wish it to happen, but if it does, I'll make the most of what I can while sparing a thought for those who suffer ill-effects.

Whatever happen I really like to see the extreme heat and records to be broken and at least we get some interesting temps data on our records.  After a good 18z run that allow more heat further NW ward movements than just SE corner heat so hopefully next few runs to keep pushing it further NW ward to add more hot days.