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eddied
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:28:03 AM
I don't get some of the posts here. It clearly wasn't as bad as it might have been, but the amber warning was for strong winds, flooding and falling trees. There have been strong winds, flooding and fallen trees. The trains were cancelled this morning as the winds were due to peak during the rush hour. What happened? The winds peaked during the rush hour and some 40-50 trees fell on tracks and not on trains filled with commuters. The media have wall to wall hyped this which maybe had the more naive expecting the apocalypse but what was predicted has basically happened in many areas, bar maybe 10mph of wind speed, and due to the caution taken there have been few injuries.

I hope the Danish are getting their heads down.
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
John Mason
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:29:08 AM

If you compare the current analysis chart with the forecast charts for this morning from two or three days ago you can see just how much this has been downgraded. A low of 974mb instead of 964 or even 960, and a gradient less than half as tight. Given that this very much weaker storm has still brought down lots of trees and caused power cuts you can only imagine what the originally modelled storm would have done!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


We certainly dodged a bullet here. I don't know if you follow discussions elsewhere, but it was 'poor' phasing of the upper trough and the low which delayed explosive development: in essence the low got too far ahead of the trough - or the trough didn't play catch-up smartly enough. This was a finely-balanced situation that was a sod to call right, although one observation is that models picked up on this storm and its track before it had formed, several days ago.


Still, 140,000 homes and businesses without power in SE England, and a crane has blown over onto the roof of the Cabinet Office!


Deepening however continues as the low crosses the North Sea, with risk of serious problems as it runs into Denmark later today as a more intense feature.

Deep Powder
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:30:36 AM

I personally think the MetO and other agency warnings are justified, it's their remit to advise the public and they do a good job of it IMO
It's the media hysteria and mass cancellation of travel that i find unjustified. For example if this happens next week let's see if the people of N.Ireland and NW England, densely populated areas, recieve the same level of coverage
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png 

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 



Joe

I agree, but us in the SE don't demand the over hyped media coverage, I find it just as frustrating as those further north. I have no idea why they do it and why people (general public) don't appear to realise they are being over dramatic......

TWO is the best way to get a level headed view! 🙂
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
johnr
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:34:34 AM

Not a non-event here, albeit so far a brief one as it seems to be dying back as rapidly as it started. Windy all night but nothing exceptional, then at 7.30am it picked up. The max gust at 7.40am was 48.8mph then an increase to 76.8mph a few minutes ago at 8.12am. These are not corrected for height - the anenometer is a couple of metres above our bungalow roof ridge.


The third highest I've recorded here in 20 years. At least it seems to be dying back now but bits of tree are still flying horizontally past our windows. Power went off for ten minutes but back on now.


John


[edit] seems to be picking up again at 8.35.


 


Mickfield, Mid Suffolk
warrenb
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:35:09 AM
Lost a few fence panels etc so a day off work to repair them, but I think we got lucky.
Steam Fog
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:35:19 AM



I'm afraid I don't agree. If you mean sections of the media, then absolutely, but the amber warning was a necessary precaution in my opinion.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Absolutely. Had the warning's been insufficient and more people killed or seriously injured then the met office would have been severely criticised for not putting warning's out.

There was some daft reporting and deliberate misrepresentation in some of the media mind you. If there's any criticism it might be more sensibly directed towards those who would rather sell newspapers than provide some perspective.

Rob K
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:36:13 AM

I personally think the MetO and other agency warnings are justified, it's their remit to advise the public and they do a good job of it IMO
It's the media hysteria and mass cancellation of travel that i find unjustified. For example if this happens next week let's see if the people of N.Ireland and NW England, densely populated areas, recieve the same level of coverage
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png 

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 



Joe

I agree, but us in the SE don't demand the over hyped media coverage, I find it just as frustrating as those further north. I have no idea why they do it and why people (general public) don't appear to realise they are being over dramatic......

TWO is the best way to get a level headed view! :)

Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 



There is the argument that because the SE doesn't get strong winds so frequently, there is more damage when they do arrive. Trees don't get thinned out by regular gales, so when there is a storm you get more and bigger trees coming down. Also buildings are not designed to withstand strong winds the way they are up in Scotland for instance.

Plus, journalists are mostly London-based and lazy and would rather go and stand on a beach in Bournemouth than trek up to the north...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
pthomps
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:38:15 AM


Yes, a non-event here also, had a few minutes of strong winds in teh early hours 3ish and that is your lot


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Well, to counter all of the 'none event' posters, it's been quite a wild few hours here in Colchester (Essex). As I type, the chainsaws are out removing a fallen tree across the road. For me, the forecasters got it exactly right, and certainly it's not been as windy as  this for several years...


 


Peter

JoeShmoe99
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:39:23 AM
Joe I agree, but us in the SE don't demand the over hyped media coverage, I find it just as frustrating as those further north. I have no idea why they do it and why people (general public) don't appear to realise they are being over dramatic...... TWO is the best way to get a level headed view! :)


I grew up in West London and lived there for 25 years (when i first joined TWO way back in the early naught-ies i was in Ealing) so i agree completely!

Gandalf The White
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:41:47 AM



Was that it!UserPostedImageAll that hype!! its been nothing more than a strong autumn gale.
A hell of alot of rain though,here in wareham, over one and half inches overnight!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Worst I've seen here in 5 years in terms of damage if not actual wind strength. Fairly noteworthy I would have thought

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Given that many places are seeing damage, death and injury right now its a pretty half-arsed comment.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 



Sadly there have been rather too many of those in this thread.

Anyone with a half-decent understanding of meteorology and a non-parochial mindset will recognise this to have been a notable event. Not exceptional but certainly pretty well predicted by the Met Office.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


light without heat
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:41:52 AM

Not a breath of wind here and light rain ....amazing 


Chris - Hull, East Yorkshire
Polar Low
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:42:09 AM

Indeed it was very wild




Yes, a non-event here also, had a few minutes of strong winds in teh early hours 3ish and that is your lot


Originally Posted by: pthomps 


Well, to counter all of the 'none event' posters, it's been quite a wild few hours here in Colchester (Essex). As I type, the chainsaws are out removing a fallen tree across the road. For me, the forecasters got it exactly right, and certainly it's not been as windy as  this for several years...


 


Peter


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

nsrobins
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:44:48 AM

Positives


Impressive advanced modelling on track especially ECM and laterly HIRLAM/NAE (eventually)
Correct decision IMO for advanced train cancellations - 24 trees on line in SW Trains region alone, three of which were hit by dummy runs earlier.
Correct level of advanced warnings from MetO and very well handled by them IMO
No widespread damage as earlier predicted
Near on perfect max gust modeling - 99mph at The Needles, although inland gust slower than modeled
The IOW Portsmouth to Fishbourne ferry continued to run through the night in a Violent Storm 11 - impressive
Behaviour on this forum generally sensible and objective which is a credit to the members here.


Negatives


Almost nauseating at times media coverage, especially from Sky, in the run up to the storm. Way over the top IMO
Intensity less than expected probably due to unsychronised phasing with left jet entrance zone. Proabbly prevented a more severe event so not really a negative.
At times laughable behaviour from other forums - very hard work for moderators.


So, next?


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Polar Low
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:45:48 AM

Bang on and if not cancellled many people may have been killed.


 


I don't get some of the posts here. It clearly wasn't as bad as it might have been, but the amber warning was for strong winds, flooding and falling trees. There have been strong winds, flooding and fallen trees. The trains were cancelled this morning as the winds were due to peak during the rush hour. What happened? The winds peaked during the rush hour and some 40-50 trees fell on tracks and not on trains filled with commuters. The media have wall to wall hyped this which maybe had the more naive expecting the apocalypse but what was predicted has basically happened in many areas, bar maybe 10mph of wind speed, and due to the caution taken there have been few injuries. I hope the Danish are getting their heads down.

Originally Posted by: eddied 

Deep Powder
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:49:13 AM
Joe I agree, but us in the SE don't demand the over hyped media coverage, I find it just as frustrating as those further north. I have no idea why they do it and why people (general public) don't appear to realise they are being over dramatic...... TWO is the best way to get a level headed view! :)


I grew up in West London and lived there for 25 years (when i first joined TWO way back in the early naught-ies i was in Ealing) so i agree completely!



I joined in the early naughties too, should have remembered you were originally in Ealing! I do think up north folk cope better with big rather events!

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
NickR
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:51:03 AM


Positives


Impressive advanced modelling on track especially ECM and laterly HIRLAM/NAE (eventually)
Correct decision IMO for advanced train cancellations - 24 trees on line in SW Trains region alone, three of which were hit by dummy runs earlier.
Correct level of advanced warnings from MetO and very well handled by them IMO
No widespread damage as earlier predicted
Near on perfect max gust modeling - 99mph at The Needles, although inland gust slower than modeled
The IOW Portsmouth to Fishbourne ferry continued to run through the night in a Violent Storm 11 - impressive
Behaviour on this forum generally sensible and objective which is a credit to the members here.


Negatives


Almost nauseating at times media coverage, especially from Sky, in the run up to the storm. Way over the top IMO
Intensity less than expected probably due to unsychronised phasing with left jet entrance zone. Proabbly prevented a more severe event so not really a negative.
At times laughable behaviour from other forums - very hard work for moderators.


So, next?


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


On this, this thread has been a haven of sense and intelligence compared to The Other Place, which has been ridiculous at times.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:52:21 AM

Less powerful than predicted, and certainly overhyped by newspapers in search of a headline, but still 99mph reported at the Needles, and, sadly, a teenager swept to his death of Newhaven beach. Two lots of minor injuries where trees fell on/in front of moving cars (a taxi and a police car).


Network Rail not running trains in the South East until they've cleared the fallen trees, estimated 40 down on the Southern network (basically Sussex) and 26 on Southwest (basically Hampshire). I can understand a grump from Wareham about a non-event - listening to local radio the greatest damage seems to have been to East Hampshire, around Petersfield, and Sussex, around Lewes (and possibly Kent, too, but I can't pick up Radio Kent)


Royal Met Society expert saying that this was a once in 5 to 10 year storm for southern England -sounds about right to me


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Charmhills
Monday, October 28, 2013 8:58:26 AM

Heavy rain here in the early hours with little or no wind, 17mms.


Of course no strong winds were expected here anyway apart from the rain.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Solar Cycles
Monday, October 28, 2013 9:00:42 AM
Looks like my storm in a teacup warning was spot on, Past history tell.s us that the trajectory of the storm would be further south than what was being modelled.
idj20
Monday, October 28, 2013 9:03:07 AM

So, can I relax now? I have to say it was one very noteable wind event! Especially that squally bit at 6.30 am, that was frightening.
  Not exactly on a par with the Great Gale of October '87 but the number of fallen trees and walls around here is a testimony to how signficant this event was.

I hope that's our lot for this Autumn as this sense of normality returns to things.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Polar Low
Monday, October 28, 2013 9:04:35 AM

Thanks for your great posts Neil and GTW for starting it all off its been great and some really good links for all of us to use.


 



Positives


Impressive advanced modelling on track especially ECM and laterly HIRLAM/NAE (eventually)
Correct decision IMO for advanced train cancellations - 24 trees on line in SW Trains region alone, three of which were hit by dummy runs earlier.
Correct level of advanced warnings from MetO and very well handled by them IMO
No widespread damage as earlier predicted
Near on perfect max gust modeling - 99mph at The Needles, although inland gust slower than modeled
The IOW Portsmouth to Fishbourne ferry continued to run through the night in a Violent Storm 11 - impressive
Behaviour on this forum generally sensible and objective which is a credit to the members here.


Negatives


Almost nauseating at times media coverage, especially from Sky, in the run up to the storm. Way over the top IMO
Intensity less than expected probably due to unsychronised phasing with left jet entrance zone. Proabbly prevented a more severe event so not really a negative.
At times laughable behaviour from other forums - very hard work for moderators.


So, next?


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Bow Echo
Monday, October 28, 2013 9:06:49 AM

IMO a complete over reaction by the rail companies. Millions commute into London every day including my husband, but nobody can go anywhere this morning. Complete lockdown for SE people who have to try and get to work.

Originally Posted by: micahel37 

Really? Network Rail have already removed 40 trees from lines, and many more remain blocked. 4 trains have hit trees. The chances of restoring services by 9 am is looking remote given the damage. 40,000 homes have no power and the Isle of Wight have reported 99moh gusts.

Originally Posted by: DeeDee 


As a train driver, I have to say that the companies (mine included) reacted with appropriate prudence. We don't have the luxury of street lights to show us what is ahead, merely headlights which, if rounding a bend or either exiting or entering a tunnel don't give a whole lot of time for reaction at line speed. Some of those trees which have come down across tracks are substantial, and I for one don't want to end up mangled in any of that stuff. Yes its annoying, for me too..most of us do want to provide a good service, but the railway is built around safety, and regardless of the complaints that is what I and my colleagues will count as a priority. I have in my career hit a tree. I can assure you it is no fun and can really spoil your day!


Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


Osprey
Monday, October 28, 2013 9:08:12 AM

We had a fair bit of rain not much wind thank goodness


I take no notice of the media


I back all the precautions taken regardless


We can't predict what exactly will happen with these kind of weather events.


As someone pointed out, it's not an exact science


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Weathermac
Monday, October 28, 2013 9:09:56 AM
The midlands seems to miss the worst of the gales as Lows always seem to track through the centre of England .
The last really bad gale to hit here was back in 1990 as we even missed the Great 1987 storm by a whisker so we have had very little tree loss over recent years thankfully.
ARTzeman
Monday, October 28, 2013 9:13:28 AM

Glad it is over the worst even though only a high wind of 19.4 km/h. At 01:19....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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