Agreed

I certainly think we're seeing an end to the average/mild conditions shortly(for down here) either via mid-latitude blocking or the various more meridional options involving low pressure. 

I'm now looking out for signs of the old model corrections that we enjoyed observing back in 2010, such as LP having an increasinly difficult time progressing past Greenland.

With the polar setup less than inspiring, I'm not expecting to see that much (in 2010 the models were underestimating the imapcts of the polar developments), but there's definately room for a slight upgrade here and there.

The ever-threatening downgrade is, of course, a possibility as well, especially after seeing a fair few amplified projections flattened out during the past couple of months.

...but I'm hopeful

The navgem continues to really build the HP perfectly. Its superior even to the ECM setup. With the NAVGEM onside, I don't know what everyone is worried about 

Level 1 or 2

UKMO is very similar to NAVGEM at 144h

Now stop that at once....

Joe ******i‏@BigJoe******i17m

Make sure the Turbines are working Europe,cold is coming and become king in December pic.twitter.com/sPt2XCbSN2

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Looks like the GFS chart Joe tweeted about a few minutes ago is about late November, but I expect he's forecasting this to continue into a chilly December across much of Europe...

Doesn't Joe ******i predict cold weather pretty much all the time? 

err yes

Its not every day that you see the precipitation plot meet the temperature plot

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

That GEFS is interesting, the first cold spell is represented by that trough in the 850 lines. However they go down again right towards the end of the run. This seems consistant with the usual procedure of dropping one trough down and giving a few days of cold weather for the north, before a 2nd trough comes down and introduces the cold air properly for most of the country. In fact as we get closer to the event, I would expect to even see 3 attempts; just because it often takes a while for the block to really setup. 

Quite a few runs getter lower and lower towards the end

Here's todays video update;

First Cold Snap Of The Winter Next Week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks like something might be about to happen, LOL.

Cheers Gav

Something may indeed be about to happen (next week). Whether it is a cold wintry something or a chilly brief not overly notable something still remains to be determined.

Here's the 12z GFS op as we approach the time period in question:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1562.png

Toppler or something else? (Either way it could potentially bring the first snow of the season here)

Edit: Brrrrr  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1683.png 

Well it's not a hugely significant cold 'snap' by any means but sub -8s at 850 in a stiff NE breeze will make it feel much more akin to early winter than Autumn.
2m tmaxes of around +4C on Wednesday next week will threaten wintry ppn especially at height I would think.

It's not you are spot but it is a welcome change

That is a very cold uk chart for mid november little doubt, heavy snow showers for Scotland being brewed by long track warm sst little doubt.

it is also cold toppler in as much as it draws in cold n/e winds to the east

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=1

and a mother of all later on at t240

its not even winter yet just a warm up of things to come

    goodness me gfs control very close to a uk snow event

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=162&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=174&mode=2&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=168&mode=1&carte=1

I would remember people that very often the first attempt fails or brings only a transient cold spell. What we have beyond the initial northerly incursion is an even stronger mid atlantic ridge and a canadian high separated by a weak trough. The GFS has been consistantly merging these together in low res. Exactly how this pans out for the UK varies considerbly, however the general pattern is for a greenland high to eventually establish even if it is a very gradual process. 

To illustrate, I annotated below (I hope mods are okay with this, I have scaled it down, and it is annotated)

The models consistantly try to merge the two dominant anticyclones, and they are converging at greenland. Also the arctic high is moving in a favouble direction too. 

very intresting run that one from navgm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1

if you look thou maybe a flatter outcome generally on 12z gfs

mean

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1

and members

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

Good Points taken Q