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Solar Cycles
Saturday, November 16, 2013 7:47:47 PM


Q - you obviously weren't living in these parts in Feb 2005 - which is memorable only for being the dullest, least memorable, cold spell in modern times


Originally Posted by: Essan 

Lol, it was such a memorable event around here that I wasn't even aware we had a cold spell back then.

Quantum
Saturday, November 16, 2013 7:56:27 PM



Q - you obviously weren't living in these parts in Feb 2005 - which is memorable only for being the dullest, least memorable, cold spell in modern times


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Lol, it was such a memorable event around here that I wasn't even aware we had a cold spell back then.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


For me the snow was waist deep, and closed school for two days. But to be fair I was probably only about 5ft then or less. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:02:56 PM




Q - you obviously weren't living in these parts in Feb 2005 - which is memorable only for being the dullest, least memorable, cold spell in modern times


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Lol, it was such a memorable event around here that I wasn't even aware we had a cold spell back then.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


For me the snow was waist deep, and closed school for two days. But to be fair I was probably only about 2 ft  then or less. 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Amended for you

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Steve Murr
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:07:12 PM

based on the UKMO & a what I have seen from the suites over the last couple of days-


 


The BOM is the first model ( operational ) to present vertical advection over Western Greenland ( a La 2010 )


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2013111612/bomnh-0-240.png?12


 


Its a simple transition in theory & the downstream pattern has been modelled very similar for the last 24 hours ( around day 8/9) which is the flat sausage shaped Scandi high-


 


THe upstream pattern is more complicated & the BOM is a choice of evolutions, however this evolution becomes ever likely if the projected energy in the northern arm of the jet has been favoured by the models by mistake- ( NB: tonights ECMs failings) should we see more energy moving back into the southern branch of the jet then the retrograde block becomes favoured...


 


I hear the uproar that the BOM is being picked over the ECM- its a rare thing but the BOM could have fluked the right solution alongside the ECM which I think is very poor in its modelling tonight.


 


UKMO + BOM ( ironically the BOM has the UKMO starting package)Look the form couplet tonight...


 


cheers


S

Gavin P
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:30:46 PM


based on the UKMO & a what I have seen from the suites over the last couple of days-


 


The BOM is the first model ( operational ) to present vertical advection over Western Greenland ( a La 2010 )


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2013111612/bomnh-0-240.png?12


 


Its a simple transition in theory & the downstream pattern has been modelled very similar for the last 24 hours ( around day 8/9) which is the flat sausage shaped Scandi high-


 


THe upstream pattern is more complicated & the BOM is a choice of evolutions, however this evolution becomes ever likely if the projected energy in the northern arm of the jet has been favoured by the models by mistake- ( NB: tonights ECMs failings) should we see more energy moving back into the southern branch of the jet then the retrograde block becomes favoured...


 


I hear the uproar that the BOM is being picked over the ECM- its a rare thing but the BOM could have fluked the right solution alongside the ECM which I think is very poor in its modelling tonight.


 


UKMO + BOM ( ironically the BOM has the UKMO starting package)Look the form couplet tonight...


 


cheers


S


Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 


Great post Steve.


I've got a feeling the 00z runs will be very interesting in the morning...

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Quantum
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:35:02 PM

If people are posting the BOM 240 chart to look for optimism, then winter is already over 


But seriously, excellent post Steve. I hope the UKMO/BOM are onto something, and perhaps the later deserves more credit than it gets. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
moomin75
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:35:57 PM

I thought BOM was the cannon-fodder similar to NOGAPS - Wasn't BOM the new blonde model??


Besides, you can't trust anything the Aussies produce!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Matty H
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:38:45 PM
That's it then. BOM is the new best model. Well, until it shows an unfavourable solution, and then whichever one is showing cold becomes the new best one. 😝 😉 [sn_bsmil]

Joking aside, still looks like a very seasonal week coming up. Typical autumn fare. [sn_smile]
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
moomin75
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:44:24 PM

That's it then. BOM is the new best model. Well, until it shows an unfavourable solution, and then whichever one is showing cold becomes the new best one. Flapper Wink Big smile

Joking aside, still looks like a very seasonal week coming up. Typical autumn fare. Smile

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


One thing I've learned over the years Matty, is the model that is correct is the one showing what everyone wants to see.


Disregard anything zonal, mild or wet, because they are always wrong!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:52:32 PM
Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:53:33 PM
nsrobins
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:57:25 PM


ecm mean


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Now perhaps that ECM mean from the other day that caused such a kerfufle is making a bit more sense.

No dramatic easterlies with sudden sub-zero incursions are on the menu just yet, but if synoptics continue to trend the way they are, it's only a matter of time IMO.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:57:46 PM


ecm mean


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


 


That ECM mean is pretty nice. OK, it won't deliver the sort of freezing blast some are hoping for, but it looks more favourable in the longer term, which IMO is more important


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:58:04 PM

ecm 500 has it much further north than the opp n/e outbreak likely,


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 8:59:21 PM

indeed




ecm mean


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


That ECM mean is pretty nice. OK, it won't deliver the sort of freezing blast some are hoping for, but it looks more favourable in the longer term, which IMO is more important


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

nouska
Saturday, November 16, 2013 9:02:33 PM


I thought BOM was the cannon-fodder similar to NOGAPS - Wasn't BOM the new blonde model??


Besides, you can't trust anything the Aussies produce!


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I seem to remember the BOM was new to meteociel when December '10 was ongoing - it was oft quoted on here as being the one that led the way for continuing the cold when all around were showing breakdown. A lot of analysing the pedigree and credentials anyway.  You were in Aussie during that time IIRC.

Quantum
Saturday, November 16, 2013 9:09:01 PM

That's it then. BOM is the new best model. Well, until it shows an unfavourable solution, and then whichever one is showing cold becomes the new best one. Flapper Wink Big smile

Joking aside, still looks like a very seasonal week coming up. Typical autumn fare. Smile

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


All of you know deep down, which model really is the best....


 


(and it isn't the ECM) 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, November 16, 2013 9:14:36 PM



ecm mean


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Now perhaps that ECM mean from the other day that caused such a kerfufle is making a bit more sense.

No dramatic easterlies with sudden sub-zero incursions are on the menu just yet, but if synoptics continue to trend the way they are, it's only a matter of time IMO.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Indeed if its long term cold you are after then the ECM 10 day Mean is a Beauty. Stunning charts for the time of year.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nickl
Saturday, November 16, 2013 10:08:51 PM

ecm 500 has it much further north than the opp n/e outbreak likely,


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



That chart IS the op PL?

Maybe the fact that the red is the anomoly rather than the actual placement of the higher heights is making it look bett than the op did.

of more interest is that tuesday 12z is the first run of the upgraded ecm ens. the main change being vertical levels up from 62 to 91. Looking through the details of the parallel analyses on ecmwf.int, it looks like a worthwhile improvement in the NH.
Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, November 16, 2013 10:10:01 PM

18z GFS has a snow event for the South Weds night


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 10:12:46 PM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png


Some cold days coming up


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Zubzero
Saturday, November 16, 2013 10:13:54 PM


18z GFS has a snow event for the South Weds night


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


A bit of back edge sleet/wet snow hardly a snow event 


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013111618/102-779.GIF?16-18

Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 10:43:24 PM



18z GFS has a snow event for the South Weds night


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2


Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


A bit of back edge sleet/wet snow hardly a snow event 


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013111618/102-779.GIF?16-18


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/11/16/basis18/ukuk/rart/13112100_2_1618.gif

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
Saturday, November 16, 2013 10:43:44 PM

Another downgrade, and indeed towards the end of the run the jet is showing signs of flattening out. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 10:45:11 PM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111618/gfsnh-0-120.png?18


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111618/gfsnh-0-144.png?18


A bit different to UKMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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