based on the UKMO & a what I have seen from the suites over the last couple of days-
The BOM is the first model ( operational ) to present vertical advection over Western Greenland ( a La 2010 )
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2013111612/bomnh-0-240.png?12
Its a simple transition in theory & the downstream pattern has been modelled very similar for the last 24 hours ( around day 8/9) which is the flat sausage shaped Scandi high-
THe upstream pattern is more complicated & the BOM is a choice of evolutions, however this evolution becomes ever likely if the projected energy in the northern arm of the jet has been favoured by the models by mistake- ( NB: tonights ECMs failings) should we see more energy moving back into the southern branch of the jet then the retrograde block becomes favoured...
I hear the uproar that the BOM is being picked over the ECM- its a rare thing but the BOM could have fluked the right solution alongside the ECM which I think is very poor in its modelling tonight.
UKMO + BOM ( ironically the BOM has the UKMO starting package)Look the form couplet tonight...
cheers
S
Originally Posted by: Steve Murr