The reason the ECMWF12z wasn't too good, was due to quite a major pattern change in canada imo. The polar vortex, instead of being split and isolated was actually strengthened and moved south east. The bearing high was forced into the western part of the continent where its influence became significantly reduced. This meant there was virtually no communication between the atlantic and the pacific, so it should not be suprising that the collapse occured.
However if you look at the error charts for that part of canada
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112712/EEH1-216.GIF?27-0
then its apparant that there is alot of uncertainty regarding the heights. In the 850 chart the difference is even more apparant.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112712/EEH0-216.GIF?27-0
If this ECMWF chart represents a trend setter then I would be very worried. I don't think any other chart has produced something so different in terms of the position of that high in a while. Perhaps that is evidence that it is an anomoly, especially since there is so little intramodel agreement. But to be clear, the ECM is alone today in its positioning of the PV in the key area; I personally wouldn't accept its word over every other chart, though it doesn't exactly make me happy either.
Even so the ECM216 and 240 charts are very wintry. With such low uppers, heavy snow would be a major feature to anyone exposed to the wind.
Edited by user
Wednesday, November 27, 2013 9:17:37 PM
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Reason: Not specified
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.