Early i know but some potentially life threatening storms forecast through xmas when a lot of people will be travelling, id expect to start seeing warnings

Clearly a piece of the PV is now in the NW Atlantic causing a very intense jet stream and its how these low pressure systems inteact with that, which will cause these 'bombs'

Thats a 935mb low GFS has just NW of Scoland on Xmas eve 

Fascinating spell of weather watching coming up as if comes off as showing today will be headline news through xmas

The snow potential for tomorrow night remains on this morning's NAE 00z

Precipitation charts for 12z-18z:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis00/ukuk/prty/13121918_1800.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis00/ukuk/prec/13121918_1800.gif

Temperature profile:

850hPa: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis00/ukuk/t850/13121918_1800.gif

950hPa: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis00/ukuk/t925/13121918_1800.gif

850-1000hPa thickness: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis00/ukuk/th85/13121918_1800.gif

500-1,000hPa thickness: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis00/ukuk/tpps/13121918_1800.gif

As with last night's charts the key is likely to be the intensity of the precipitation.  The exact area 'at risk' will move as the track of the rain/snow moves around but it's a broader band than last night.

06z rolling out, so we'll have another take on this shortly.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/18/basis06/ukuk/prty/13121918_1806.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/12/18/basis00/ukuk/rart/13121918_2_1800.gif

I'd expect it to be limited to higher parts

Out of hosptial at last! anyway

 concerning amount of rain to come

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t96

Hope not very nasty looking xmas eve chart just when people travel

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&carte=1

60m/m within 80 hours in the s/w thats motoring

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/84h.htm

The interesting thing about that sequence of charts, is the build of pressure over the Pole (negative AO anyone?). The PV does appear to split with a chunk over the north Atlantic and us, with the remainder heading off to Siberia. Perhaps that will lead to some winter interest down the line.

You can see how many LP bottled up in the arctic without a single strong HP cell at all.   This giving N America very cold start while here and most of Europe have a mild start. This show well how zonality really push as much as further east with snow cover starting from Russia onward.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Turkey stay uneffected by the zonal weather as the snow cover are further west than further north.

I think someone alluded to that in this thread yesterday, Maunder. It's along way out but there may be some hope for something more seasonal later into next month. I'll also say that this time last year the model runs (most of them anyway) looked far from great for cold prospects, but look at how that all changed after the festive season had passed.

the details will keep changing but this run has a potential Xmas day "bomb". Those awful relatives coming over for Christmas dinner might end up staying the night!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121806/gfs-0-168.png?6

Boom!  Brussel sprout overload

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121806/gfs-0-180.png?6

lol a few more drinks!! would hope for an adjustment south to miss the worst look at that jet

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=5&carte=1

Dear me stormy to say the least if you follow those high wind areas at risk.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=slpw&HH=57&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Conditions in the Bay of Biscay and the Cote Savage would be extreme if that comes to pass. Looks terrible for southern England, but even worse for much of France.

widespread severe flooding by then I would have thought

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Poor Ian wont like that  thats just silly I "Hope"

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/storm-motion/180h.htm

Am I the only one who thinks some of today's warnings are way ott?

I have just seen the Met Office amber warning for 70-90mph gusts yet to me it looks more like 50-60mph gusts widely with 70mph gusts for exposed coastal areas.

[quote=Polar Low;560673]

widespread severe flooding by then I would have thought

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Poor Ian wont like that  thats just silly I "Hope"

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/storm-motion/180h.htm

Holly cr*p! That's gonna hit me hard if it comes off!!

935mb.. that's deep.

Not much of a relief but at least these are mature primary lows being modeled with very low core pressure. Large areas of damaging gusts yes but the ones you need to watch are the secondary runners. The extra gradient they produce on their southern flanks, combined with jet exit zones if phased correctly, are really risky.
Several of these have appeared on succesive runs now and something fairly major could well occur if all parameters are in sync.