Good evening folks. Here is tonight's look at the NWP output taken from the midday runs for today Tuesday December 17th 2013.
The weather is shown by all models to be very unsettled and often very windy with gales and heavy rain sweeping across the UK tomorrow, especially later in the day and toward the NW where some storm force gusts are possible. Through Thursday the weather will turn colder and more showery with some wintry showers in the North with even a little wintriness to the showers across the hills and moors of the SW too at times. Then through Friday and the weekend the weather stays very unsettled and windy with further spells of heavy rain and it will become mild again across most areas with the North seeing slightly colder weather again on Sunday with showers.
GFS then shows next week as increasingly stormy with potential for damaging winds and high rainfall totals giving rise to flooding issues in prone areas over Christmas. In addition colder air will migrate slowly across Britain at times with the risk of snowfall albeit mostly transient over hills and mountains from Christmas on. Little change is then shown in the pattern through the entire run which means little significant change in the weather type until after the New Year.
UKMO closes it's run next Monday with Low pressure in the \north Atlantic with a strong to gale SW flow with mild and wet weather extending NE across the UK early next week.
GEM tonight shows a very windy and wet Christmas week with incessant spells of rain, heavy at times mixed with spells of colder and more showery weather with snow on Northern hills.
NAVGEM also shows a wet and windy spell to start next week with some potentially stormy conditions surrounding a small daughter low crossing Southern Britain next Tuesday.
ECM tonight shows a very disturbed Christmas with strong winds throughout next week with rain, showers and severe gales all featuring with Boxing Day looking likely to be the worst day with severe Westerly gales and cold weather with squally wintry showers across all areas.
The GFS Ensembles again show no changes to the pattern that's been maintained for some time now from the GFS output. Low pressure and copious rain events coupled with strong winds remain the most important weather events over the coming few weeks with little chance of anything other than fleeting wintry showers on the hills and mountains in among the wind and rain.
The Jet Stream continues to have the UK in it's sights as it crosses the Atlantic across the UK and way into Europe over the coming period. The sine wave pattern occasionally pushes it further North then back South as each opposing air mass passes over the UK.
In Summary tonight at the risk of sounding like a broken record nothing has changed tonight. Day to day variations in the impact of storm systems is all academic as the genera message is one of wet and windy weather very frequently for all over the next few weeks with potential for some very powerful depressions delivering extremely low pressure and severe gale or storm force winds almost anywhere over the period. There is also scope for some colder polar air in the mix at times later delivering some sleet or snow to Northern and Western hills and mountains.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset