Morning all, looks like GFS's output is matchig real time data so it seems to be coming along as per according to plan.

Unfortunately.

To say that I'm nervous about tonight is an understatement, and Met Monkey's latest update isn't helping my mood not one bit

It's going to be a long night tonight as I try and stop mother from panicking. Here's hoping we'll get through it with the minimum of fuss and tears.
   At least it'll all be over this time tomorrow . . . untl the next deep depression system come steaming in on Friday but I'm hoping that one should be less intense even though it wants to take more of a southerly track.

Yes, the text forecast for down here mentions 50-60 MPH gusts with 70-80 for the south coast tonight.

As GFS has persistently forecast 70-75 MPH gusts here on the north coast of Kent I do wonder if the Met Office is undercooking it - I'll be amazed if there aren't some 80-90 MPH gusts recorded on the south coast tonight and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a 90 to 100 gust in the most prone locations (eg the Needles on the Isle of Wight).

And 969 on the 6z analysis chart - it's deepening fast.

Buoy M4 off NW Eire dropped 12mb in last 3hrs. The system as said above is on track as modelled.

I am somewhat puzzled by the continued lack of AMBER for wind today. There's an amber for rain that mention's the gales but the wind specifically only carries a yellow.
Ordinarily I don't get too animated by these but the BBC News are leading with the weather and the headline is 'there's an amber warning for rain'. Well yes there is, but the headline issue is IMO wind not rain (though flooding is likely).
Confused Joe Public? Probably.

Take care everyone down there on the south coast and stay safe.

Likewise to you all up north - it's a pretty ferocious spell for the top and tail of the British Isles!

Already warned folks to get their barometers ready....

The wind has really got going in the last 20 minutes or so here, tree tops bending quite well and i think many trees will fall today with the wind combined with saturated ground.

You're right Neil, I dropped off presents to a few friends yesterday and when I mentioned the wind and battening down the hatches they said, 'why? is it going to be that bad then'? so I would think anyone not watching what we watch will be unaware of how bad this storm may get.

The echoes on the rainfall radar look like they are declining in intenstity?

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Where? Just looks like the normal variability to me.

Plus I think for those southern areas in the Amber zone this is more of a rainfall duration risk rather than just the intensity.

Fair point actually about the duration.

It was just that I'd noticed the darker reds disappearing somewhat.

Plus the radar site covering the south-west approaches has not been working for the past few frames, so coverage down there may not be accurate.

Reduced duration for the really heavy rain along the south coast in this morning's forecast compared to yesterday - light rain 0900-1200 today and 0300-0600 tomorrow whereas previously it was to be heavy all the way through. 

But my daughter, who lives in Tonbridge, says that the Medway is bank full already so there's still going to be more than enough rain to cause trouble. And the wet conditions have already caused a landslip which has closed the Hastings - Tonbridge railway line.

Stay safe Martyn....get the food cooked now! The upside is that your family live in an idyllic place!

High winds getting closer -

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-3.06,53.60,2048

 looks to be already 75mph on the southern flank

960 seems to deeper than expected at this time.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

No storm forecast issued at the moment,, Van Der Velde usually likes to do it

http://www.estofex.org/