Good evening. Here is the latest report on the Boxing Day Evening 12 noon reports for today December 26th 2013.

All models show a deepening Low pressure moving ENE close to Northern Scotland tomorrow with a strong Westerly flow across Britain. With heavy rain crossing quickly East overnight clearing through the morning it's a mix of sunshine and showers for the rest of tomorrow and Saturday before a ridge crossing East on Sunday drier things up briefly before cloud and rain spills back NE late in the day.

GFS then shows the last two days of 2013 as very unsettled with Low pressure up to the NW steering troughs NE across Britain with further rain at times in a blustery but less strong than of late SW wind. New Year 2014 shows little change in the overall pattern with wind and rain continuing to feature regularly over the UK as depressions cross the UK from the West or NW. With time some short colder interludes with more in the way of wintry showers is possible with a Northerly flow at the end of the run giving the UK the best shot of sleet and snow showers for a time as High pressure builds close to the SW.

UKMO closes tonight's run with Low pressure out to the West with a South or SW flow across the UK with rain or showers at times in temperatures close to average.

GEM also shows a very zonal pattern persisting with High pressure well to the Southwest and a succession of Low pressure areas continuing Eastwards to the North of the UK throwing trough after trough across the UK with rain and showers at times in average temperatures.

NAVGEM also show the same zonal synoptic setup with Low pressure areas to the North of the UK repeatedly bringing wet and windy weather across the UK with rain and showers for all in average temperatures.

ECM tonight shows a short battleground scenario between troughs of Low pressure moving in from the West against a High pressure block to the North and NE. This seems temporary as the Atlantic Low pressure bandwagon train seems too strong coupled with a strong Azores High pressure area which on this occasion overpowers any blocking to the NE.

The GFS Ensembles show little support for any major pattern shift anytime soon. There is support for the Jet Stream to flow more SE over Europe and this may allow some longer colder interludes to affect many parts of the UK later in the period.

The Jet Stream forecast continues the flow in it's general current location for the next week or so before it is shown to move South particularly at the European end with some cold pooling possible over the UK later

In Summary there is very little support for anything desperately cold within the next couple of weeks with the general consensus being for a continuation of the unsettled and rainy weather with colder conditions with sunshine and showers at others. With a strong Azores High we are left to look for conditions over Europe at the moment to produce something that could end the current unsettled Atlantic spell and though there are some hints of that happening on some runs tonight any success is likely to be thwarted by an over riding Jet flow and the Azores High as illustrated at the end of the operational run from ECM and the far end of GFS though admittedly from rather different situations to one another.

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On reading this I think I now know what CET figure I'll put in for the January one.

Its most certainly not a cold one.

 

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so that just leaves early to mid feb for our winter then

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page 19 here we go.

The GFS keeps a Very zonal and less cold in general outlook- with wet and some what windy at times.

At t144 the UKMO and the ECMWF though - oops a daisy do, it appears the UKMO and ECMWF Models are sending West and NW out from the UK the main PV Low pressure- A Scandy high develops where it should- they Intensify Newfoundland S Greenland Sea PV Low and attendant pushes E and SE the associated Short waves.

So only worth 6 days ahead, and though the Strat Warming and High vs Low i.e, warm vs cold affect and spin around the Arctic Canada and Eurasia W and N Russia Cold, a warming for East to NE USA and over N E Central up through ever greater warm High in the East N Central and the NE side as well< This over Siberia E NE Asia E SE Russia. - edit added. The Arctic Cold Stratosphere Vortex is very cold at -75 even -80 and some links I have show it and so do the NCEP NOAA GFS 10 hPa charts and more particularly the ECMWF Stratosphere Charts show the Cold Pool high up and it Low Pressure with it Vortex moving speedily- and the Higher Pressure in Siberia/ Asia side.

I'd expect the GFS will have to adapt to ECMWF soon to show the likelihood of it warming up - it is doing it in Asia and Siberia NE Russia I repea ECMWF warm it up to -15 to -25 c - NE USA SE Canada warm upto -40 to -35. We need to see this wave affect the large N Hem Low at Strat Level- it is Strong and Spreads out across the Continents of the Northern Hemisphere! read my post. <>.

The effects for the UK look like starting later in 1st Week of Jan 2013.

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It does look as if the Atlantic has too much juice and likely to overide any attempt at getting a block closer, however it is interesting to watch the pattern evolve

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The thing is Gavin, there was no sign of any cold at this stage last year infact it was a lot milder than what current ensembles are suggesting. This didn't prevent a below than average January even by 1961-90 averages.

The GFS Manchester 2m temps don't look particular mild, infact they look on the cool side if anything.

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Except last year there was an SSW which gave us our January cold spell. This year there is nothing

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No cold then for 2 weeks.

The GFS must be right then V the Euros. ( it lucked in once this season- maybe again)

 

UKMO, ECM + ECM ENS all point to a cold picture by day 10....  but it must be me & my cold bias....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122612/EDH1-240.GIF?26-0 

Euro trough, Block to the NE & a displaced azores high.

 

S

 

 

 

 

Whatever the models might be showing currently, writing off the next 5+ weeks is pretty daft imo, but all the more so given the tendency for some decent charts (albeit not on every run) shown over the past couple of days at the 2 week range.

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I'm not without sympathy for this POV

I've seen a few attempts recently to at least inflate the Eurobloc against the Atlantic. This will at some stage cause a significant change in the current pattern.

Whether the bloc inflates to Scandi and allows the undercut only time will tell but as Kev says it certainly isn't worth writing January off based on current output

A classic Euros v. GFS (and GEM) battle - who will win this time?

ECM has enough energy sliding SE to provide some interest even with a 945mb bomb in the Atlantic on day 10. It wouldn't have taken much more energy going SE to produce a very tasty chart or two.

 

This season has favoured the less amplified solutions so far, hence GFS has done okay, but this time UKMO is siding more firmly with ECM than has been seen previously this season, so that's reason to raise an eyebrow at least.

Let's wait and see what happens tomorrow - I feel it could be important.

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http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

Updated 12z ECM 15 day shows a considerable drop off & the 1991 run thrown in for good measure.....

 

S

Was there a SSW in December 2009 and November the following year? In other words, is one of these always a pre-requisite for a cold spell, very helpful though they can be?

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To me the 10 day ECM Ensemble Mean shows why I can't be too excited by tonight's output alone and it's not because of what's going on over Europe..it's our good old friend the Azores High. For as long as that stays in it's current stranglehold form and the Jet over the top is as strong it will only implode any attempt of any type of pattern change towards extensive cold in the short term.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

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Yup its got me interested im on board im fastening my belt

So because a few charts on Boxing Day are showing an Azores High we can write off the whole of January? Okaaaay....

And never mind the fact that ECM has a whopping scandi high and only fails to bring in the cold due to overdoing the Atlantic low.

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Must admit that I am getting much more optimistic now. A block originating from scandanavia should be far less impacted by any cold pool over canada. And there do seem to be genuine signs of something like this trying to develop particularly on the 12Z ECM. 

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Yes, this is predictably entertaining. One camp expressing certainty about the changeable and average conditions persisting and another seeing hints of a pattern change to something colder. And both based on the same model output....

We have enough evidence of the fallibility of both the operational runs and the ensemble mean. I see nothing in the output to say that colder conditions aren't possible in the 10-14 day timeframe but equally nothing to say it will change. Sure the Azores high is still prominent but that doesn't prevent colder weather.

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No technical SSW, David - just strong wave action - similar to what is in the current forecast. I would be wary of making any predictions for January based on the fact that the last two months have seen red herrings at the opening stages. There are a lot of options being modelled in the last few days, a sure sign that zonality might not be the only route for the weeks ahead.

It's possible but the ensemble support is not strong.

Tom, the ensemble mean from the 12z shows a continuing pattern of cold weather from around Day 9, slowly coming closer each run. Do you know what synoptic pattern is underlying these temperatures?

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html 

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