Good evening. Here is the latest report on the Boxing Day Evening 12 noon reports for today December 26th 2013.
All models show a deepening Low pressure moving ENE close to Northern Scotland tomorrow with a strong Westerly flow across Britain. With heavy rain crossing quickly East overnight clearing through the morning it's a mix of sunshine and showers for the rest of tomorrow and Saturday before a ridge crossing East on Sunday drier things up briefly before cloud and rain spills back NE late in the day.
GFS then shows the last two days of 2013 as very unsettled with Low pressure up to the NW steering troughs NE across Britain with further rain at times in a blustery but less strong than of late SW wind. New Year 2014 shows little change in the overall pattern with wind and rain continuing to feature regularly over the UK as depressions cross the UK from the West or NW. With time some short colder interludes with more in the way of wintry showers is possible with a Northerly flow at the end of the run giving the UK the best shot of sleet and snow showers for a time as High pressure builds close to the SW.
UKMO closes tonight's run with Low pressure out to the West with a South or SW flow across the UK with rain or showers at times in temperatures close to average.
GEM also shows a very zonal pattern persisting with High pressure well to the Southwest and a succession of Low pressure areas continuing Eastwards to the North of the UK throwing trough after trough across the UK with rain and showers at times in average temperatures.
NAVGEM also show the same zonal synoptic setup with Low pressure areas to the North of the UK repeatedly bringing wet and windy weather across the UK with rain and showers for all in average temperatures.
ECM tonight shows a short battleground scenario between troughs of Low pressure moving in from the West against a High pressure block to the North and NE. This seems temporary as the Atlantic Low pressure bandwagon train seems too strong coupled with a strong Azores High pressure area which on this occasion overpowers any blocking to the NE.
The GFS Ensembles show little support for any major pattern shift anytime soon. There is support for the Jet Stream to flow more SE over Europe and this may allow some longer colder interludes to affect many parts of the UK later in the period.
The Jet Stream forecast continues the flow in it's general current location for the next week or so before it is shown to move South particularly at the European end with some cold pooling possible over the UK later
In Summary there is very little support for anything desperately cold within the next couple of weeks with the general consensus being for a continuation of the unsettled and rainy weather with colder conditions with sunshine and showers at others. With a strong Azores High we are left to look for conditions over Europe at the moment to produce something that could end the current unsettled Atlantic spell and though there are some hints of that happening on some runs tonight any success is likely to be thwarted by an over riding Jet flow and the Azores High as illustrated at the end of the operational run from ECM and the far end of GFS though admittedly from rather different situations to one another.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY