rain rain and yet more rain so it would seem as we head into 2014

Some real flood issues possible again after tomorrows deluge. And it could get worse over the weekend

Thank you Martin

and thanks for all your forecasts throughout the year.

The GFS 0h ENS  confirm Atlantic dominance.At both 240h and 360h the split is 70% Zonal 30% Anticyclonic.A ray of hope at 240h where several members show a strong Atalantic ridge building NE behind a LP moving east.So worth watching to see if something more permanent can emerge.However ensembles currently show this feature is currently snuffed out by the mighty Atlantic just like last nights ECM ridge.

As one of two others have commented recently, some parts of the country didn't see any wintry stuff last winter until around the 3rd week of January or later, and we went through a zonal spell not too dissimilar to this one (in terms of excessive rainfall although without the very stormy winds like we saw last week) over last Xmas and New Year. If by the time we reach mid-late February there hasn't been any change, then yes I would agree with your view above. But that's a long, long way off right now.

Slightly OT but looking upstream the American forecasters are seeing quite a difference between the GFS and Euro models.  Interestingly they make specific reference to this on their public forecasts too, with regards to a winter storm that is expected to track NE across the US.  According to the video in the link below the GFS doesn't model it quite so strongly. I'm sure this will have a knock-on effect for us but either way it's yet another LP heading in our direction unfortunately.

http://www.weather.com/video/winter-storm-kicks-off-2014-42743

WOW or is that woe? What a persistent pattern this seems to be Beast. Tomorrow as you say looks to have perhaps been a tad upgraded? certainly a lot of rain to come and more waiting in the wings- this is a very persistent and worrying trend as we are bound top hear about more flooding issues. The weekend looks awful, and no colder weather in sight. 

Not really that notably persistent. There was virtually no rain for many in December until mid-month (remember people in this thread saying how it could be the driest December on record?) The first heavy rainfall was around the 15th/16th IIRC.

Is a three-week zonal spell really that unusual?

Just to jog people's memory - not to single out BftE unfairly but his is the first such post I found. Lots of people were saying the same thing (including me!)

On the positive side all this rain is topping up the groundwater nicely, which was very low a month ago. Best to get the rain in before the trees come into leaf and use it all up.

Seconded!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123106/gfsnh-0-384.png?6

Endless run of LP's

Hopefully things will even themselves out soon

'The freaks' as the rest of us like to call you mildie lot

Edit: Jacko, don't take this personally, fella; it's not bullying  

Saint, as you know mines a pint of mild, but you can keep the rain pal

Not sure- in fact does any one know of the longest spell of zonal weather recorded in UK?

Most of 2012 would surely have to be a contender for that!

The Atlantic wont run out of steam unless we see a big block to our NE forming, only other way is mid Atlantic ridging but thats very difficult when you have so much cold air locked in over Canada.

The NH pattern next week is very amplified but things don't look like falling in the right place yet even if the second half of the 06z is colder at times. The cold blast over the US next week is quite something on the GFS but it doesn't appear to look like it will cause any more change further downstream..... yet.

As far as the longest spell of zonality goes 1868 / 1869 was probably the worst. December 2013 had an NAO several deviations above normal and it doesn't look like going into a negative phase for a while.

Lets hope that changes later this month.

Point taken, Maunder, but I'm not sure I agree that we're stuck in this rut for sure for the whole of January and it won't be until later in February that things will change. I mentioned the zonal spell that dominated last Xmas and New Year; look at how quickly that blew itself out once we were past the first week of January. February at the moment is more than 4 weeks away, and even if the first half of January continues this current unsettled theme, at the moment none of us can say for sure whether by the time we are past mid-January, the models will still be indicating a continuation of this unsettled spell, orwhether they'll be showing something more promising.

I think some of us are making too many assumptions about the following few weeks. Yes, the models look far from great right now, but they can only give us a guide to what will happen and how many times before have we seen big changes in the model output occur fairly quickly. No need to panic yet, IMO.

In 2000 and something, there was a continuation of rain with no let up causing much flooding in Glos, Hereford and a few other areas, unlike this winter which does give us a break every so often; I remember the Wye and the Severn burst their banks

It wouldn't suprise me to see the models, how'd you say, flip? in the next 10 - 14 days

I need an easterly to dry out the ground

Don't see how anyone can say at this time that all of January is likely to be a write-off. The GFS runs at the moment only go out to mid-January, and I think it goes further ahead than any of the other models.