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Saint Snow
03 January 2014 16:33:26


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0


12z will end up very different to the 0z and 6z methinks, hints of Bartletisation in a week from GFS


but Met O holds more interest at 144:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021 


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


Out to t204 and I think the GFS 12z looks more promising than the 6z. Can still go T-U, but the Azores high has skulked back further and that Arctic/Siberian high is ridging westwards better.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
03 January 2014 16:36:27

Aaaaand T-U it goes



A slack low at t+204 bombs to another deep low over Iceland by t+240. An offshoot of the AH builds off NW Spain, and the Arctic/Siberian high retreats as energy pumps NE'wards over the top of the UK.


 


Meh! 


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
03 January 2014 16:40:33

Before FI pulls a potentially interesting (but very different to the 6z) FI out of the bag - or at least it looks like at t+300


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/03/basis12/euro/pslv/14011600_0312.gif


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Whether Idle
03 January 2014 16:44:19


Before FI pulls a potentially interesting (but very different to the 6z) FI out of the bag - or at least it looks like at t+300


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/03/basis12/euro/pslv/14011600_0312.gif


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


end up like this


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0 


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whiteout
03 January 2014 16:47:32


There's a lot more to weather than snow snow snow.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


This is for your mouth


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


LOL

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Saint Snow
03 January 2014 17:02:14



Before FI pulls a potentially interesting (but very different to the 6z) FI out of the bag - or at least it looks like at t+300


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/03/basis12/euro/pslv/14011600_0312.gif


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


end up like this


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Yeah, at t+300, there was potential IMO, but a second deep low spews out of Canada and eventually merges with the first that has parked its fat, sweaty arse right over the UK.


Straws to clutch:


1) there is a lot of energy slurging into mainland Europe from this major low system.


2) the beast is building over Scandanavia


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
03 January 2014 17:06:37



Before FI pulls a potentially interesting (but very different to the 6z) FI out of the bag - or at least it looks like at t+300


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/01/03/basis12/euro/pslv/14011600_0312.gif


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


end up like this


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


There will be some wintry ppn around IMO


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3723.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3724.png


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
03 January 2014 17:09:26

Not sure why there is negativity over the 12Z GFS. Looks pretty good to me, odds-on now that Europe will see a massive cooldown around mid-month.


The UK might or might not join in, but it gives us the significant chance of a cold spell which at the moment is zero chance.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Charmhills
03 January 2014 17:22:39

GFS 12z generally unsettled bar brief ridges and some colder air never far away.....cold rain for most should it verify.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
David M Porter
03 January 2014 17:26:29


Not sure why there is negativity over the 12Z GFS. Looks pretty good to me, odds-on now that Europe will see a massive cooldown around mid-month.


The UK might or might not join in, but it gives us the significant chance of a cold spell which at the moment is zero chance.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Agree there, Rob.


IMO the models look more interesting right now than they have done at any time since the opening few days of December, when both the GFS & ECM (briefly) toyed with the idea of the HP cell we had to our SW at the start of December moving north-east towards Scandi & ultimately setting up an easterly. Seems an age ago now.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Bugglesgate
03 January 2014 17:28:49



There's a lot more to weather than snow snow snow.


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


 


This is for your mouth


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


LOL


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Imperial Leather - luxury !


When I were a lad we  had our mouths washed out with  capbolic soap - and we  were glad of it  !


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Rob K
03 January 2014 17:40:02

Some extremely heavy rain forecast for the SE corner tomorrow on NAE.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prec/14010415_0312.gif


A similar story on WRF-NMM high-res


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014010312/nmm-1-22-0.png?03-17

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
03 January 2014 18:26:24

Pretty uninspiring set of ens for the GFS 12z - couple of cold outliers right at the end but generally unsettled and average.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/


Could be a sign the model yet again underestimated the atlantic and has moderated back to unsettled or could be a blip and something more appetising will reappear for the 18z.


 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
03 January 2014 18:41:25
Oh well, we see that the UK weather will Continue to be Changeable Mobile Westerly, with both mixes of Cold in Mild Airmasses, and some wet and Windy or breezy Conditions for the next 10 days, and at times colder with showers at brief occasions.

The Same goes for Pacific NW N and NE - Cold Arctic air affects Canada, and the low pressure affects the Canada and the USA and Northwest Atlantic with much cold and snowy weather episodes- and wavy low pressure rich PFJ- N and NW Europe less cold West and SW - N and NE Europe plus the Norwegian Sea and Iceland plus Svalbard being much colder with High Pressure winds and Cold Siberian Arctic Air from the Northampton NF the E NE pushing West and SWa to ime but away from uk and W Europe!!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Gooner
03 January 2014 18:44:03

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-168.GIF?03-0


Interesting ECM

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


jondg14
03 January 2014 18:44:22
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4178/ECM1-192_olr8.GIF 

Hello! That wasn't expected. Hopefully a trend setter.
Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2014 18:45:30

Easterly very close cold uppers could be on their way.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
03 January 2014 18:45:59


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-168.GIF?03-0


Interesting ECM


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Quite interesting Marcus, but you were saying all this a month ago before I flew out to Oz! LOL....


Groundhog day on the weather charts, just like it was watching the cricket!!

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
03 January 2014 18:46:28

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH0-192.GIF?03-0


Cold weather sat to the NE

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
03 January 2014 18:46:48

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-168.GIF?03-0


Interesting ECM

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Indeed and a large cold pool sitting just across the North Sea at T192!


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gooner
03 January 2014 18:47:41



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-168.GIF?03-0


Interesting ECM


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Quite interesting Marcus, but you were saying all this a month ago before I flew out to Oz! LOL....


Groundhog day on the weather charts, just like it was watching the cricket!!


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I think you will find that is the first time this Winter I has posted the two words " interesting ECM"

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


idj20
03 January 2014 18:50:41

Some extremely heavy rain forecast for the SE corner tomorrow on NAE.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/03/basis12/ukuk/prec/14010415_0312.gif 


A similar story on WRF-NMM high-res


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014010312/nmm-1-22-0.png?03-17

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Where it just misses East Kent by a whisker.

My "trusty" yr.no page which I use to follow hour-by-hour forecast and a quickie glance into the next 9 days for my local area is forecasting 24 m/s.wind speeds right at this very moment (7 pm), that would be classed as a powerful wind. Yet, apart from the occasional "rib jabbing (as Gusty nicely put it) squally spells in the past couple of hours, there is currently only a light breeze. I guess it's trying to pick out those passing squally showers.

But it still feels like I'm tempting fate by having typed this up.
Folkestone Harbour. 
Gooner
03 January 2014 18:51:40

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH0-216.GIF?03-0


ECM brings the cold very close to the UK


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-216.GIF?03-0


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
03 January 2014 18:52:45

The UK force field is in full effect on the ECM :)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif


 


-5C uppers almost as far south as the Azores to our southwest, and just across the North Sea, but we manage to stay mostly clear of them...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
03 January 2014 18:53:21
Heavy snow for the SCots and east of England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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