http://www.sat24.com/gb?ir=true
The frontal wave is developing as per GFS... or perhaps more substantially than that.
The rain totals are already at the values projected by GFS and NAE yesterday, and according to the morning NAE run, the hefty totals will remain across the Solent and parts of Central/SE England (extending up to just west of London) until between 3 and 6pm as the front pivots before clearing away NNE.
The Met Office outlook from yesterday, which was ignoring the GFS and NAE output, looks to be well wide of the mark, as it took the rain swiftly away east leaving it dry by noon. I could not understand why they were doing that.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&zoom=6&lon=-4.00&lat=51.54&fcTime=1388781000
Looking to the SW, that intense blob is of concern, as it's become slow moving like the frontal system, and is also on an intensifying trend. The current track takes it to the Solent which could be what NAE is seeing. GFS seems less convinced, with rain clearing the Solent by 3pm.
Combined with what looks to be heavier rain on Monday than was projected on previous runs, NAE delivers 37-46mm across the Solent over the 48 hours starting 00z today, with 20-30mm totals extending NE from there:
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/04/basis06/ukuk/rsum/14010606_0406.gif
Funnily enough, I'm heading back to Reading today, so I'll be following the rain
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser