This is a relieving 12z UKMO run- less wet after Thursday next week, less rain and less windy but either North South or NW SE split is shown on UKMO at 12z T120 and T144hrs.
I will be looking in the next Week or so at later in2nd Week and Week 3 of January- the ECMWF, GFS and the UKMO will need close watching, as we could tap into Cold NW flow or a NE Flow, either by NW Atlantic Low or Scandy High, and if the Jet rides over the top with it the Energy- and pour a SW Tracking Low from Sweden or Baltic Sea/ Belarus A SW tracking Trof and Low, and Norway to W & N Sweden / Denmark N Germany High then it could be that as Low Pressure from NW Atlantic splits along with the Vortex and a Svalbard / n and NW Norwegian Sea SE Arctic High Develop, we could see the NW and N Atlantic PFJ Stream break into Southern Europe with the northern Arm disrupted by High to our NW and over Norwegian Sea/ SE Arctic, the GFS and UKMO will take some days or a Week to tell us this, and we could see the Third and Fourth week of a January 2014 turn cold and Frosty in Northern Europe that could Include the East and South UK,
SW and South Central Europe May see Eastward moving low pressure and very cold air could affect E Europe and N Europe, while some NW to N Atlantic Zonality upto Iceland could be expected and we may also get some cold NW or northerly flows thanks to NW and N Atlantic large bending waves of PV Low's, and some UK high pressure building from the East and from SW Europe and from our NE could bring less wet and Windy weather as well- give the Models another 12 days to get fixed!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Â
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.