I hope you and Matty will be just as tolerant as us coldies are regarding the equivalent sort of comments in July  / August from us that hate the heat, didn't see much tolerance last Summer 

Back to MO, certainly a settling down on the way with the likely location of the high pressure centred over the UK it seems currently. Into FI and GFS wants to blast the atlantic back through (but some notable cold ensemble members again on the current run), so from midweek onwards at least a refreshing change from the wind and rain with temperatures likely returning to average or slightly below if fog forms and lingers.

It's becoming tiresome. Yes, Jacko, we get that you don't like cold, and you've every right to have an opinion. But almost every single run sees you crowing about how the mild weather stays with us. Some would conclude you're just trolling. A poor man's Codge perhaps.

(apologies Mods for going O/T)

Hmmmm, both go for a trough off the south west coast of Iberia. 

To me this would tip the balance of a -NAO which to me could give more credance to HP being to the north of us.  Just a theory mind.

We could do with a Pressure drop towards mainland europe though.

Good point about the Azores low pressure. This does back the ECM solution but easterlies are finely balanced things and it won't happen ulnless a multitude of factors line up favourably. But the potential is there according to ECM

Could not agree with this more and I/we all know Jacko will dissapear from here when the cold air arrrives and then re appear when the models wobble.

I would like to third that... JackO - forgive me for noticing but you appear to post the same thing every morning, did the same last winter and the winter before.

Maybe it would be best to bite your tongue... or give the bigger picture a full review rather than hanging on every zonal GFS run?

I'm a fanatical coldie,but jacko is entitled to his view and  I find his posts are interesting and thoughtful. 

That Scandi HP is being modeled more and more towards the North of Scotland.  With more of a resiliant feel to it. (though it is pushed away eventually).  an Encouraging signal that the energy might be diverted towards europe - which would help draw the HP into the correct place for Cold > UK.

240hrs

00z

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140106/06/240/h850t850eu.png 

06z

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140106/00/252/h850t850eu.png

a push for the scandi block setup?

Also - noticed more ensembles going for the -10*c scenario. Overal the consensus is a cool one.  But more and more members are picking up on very cold spikes.  Yesterday and the day before there were 1-2 members.. today 3-4 members.

beady eyes on the 12z!!!

Big difference on the 10 day mean between GFS and ECM:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Let's hope ECM is right.

It is finely balanced and the ensembles show this perfectly

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

Yes the majority of runs are milder (still cool compared to current temps) but a small cluster are sub-zero and interestingly the operational and control both go for this outcome.

Will be interesting to see if the cluster number going for cold increases from the current value.

10hpa temp:

The difference between GFS and NAVGEM in the extreme short term (12h) is staggering. The former has very low key warming with PV reformation while the later all but annihalates the PV in a moderate event. JMA also does its own thing. 

Roger how is the comment below interesting and thoughtful ?

WOW Quiet in here! I wonder why?

Should dry out a little hopefully and that cold air looks to give us a miss. Perfect!

I can see why people are down though, any blocking being shown on the models seems too tenuous to affect the UK. The hillarious thing is, just as we get cyclosis of the atlantic and WAA in canada, the arctic high dissapears and the AO goes positive! Its pretty hillarious that the arctic and atlantic seem to be taking turns to disrupt any chance of a cold spell. 

On GEFS 6Z I like p16 for FI cold, although this is cherry picking.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1

I don't know about others, but I'm just relieved that all the models seem to be pointing at more settled conditions. The drive to work this morning was hairy and I came across a couple of people who'd taken a risk and flooded their engine intakes - a great way to start your new year back at work. In other places people have been isolated and even died as a result of the weather we've had.

Maybe others can see something I can't, but coast to coast blizzards look unlikely to me based on current output, which has been reasonably consistent over the last couple of days. A period of single digit mild coupled with inversion night time frosts and fog clearing to sun looks more likely, and that kind of weather is quite pleasant and should suit all tastes - i.e. not mild, not cold, and most of all, not windy and rainy....

We had a touch of it in early December and it really wasn't too bad!

Surely Jacko is allowed the odd mischievous comment too!

Anyhow some  better news for coldies(and therefore worse news for Jacko) from the GEFS 06h run.

A shift to more colder ens v 0h run now 60:40 zonal at 144h

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

including this beauty. and 60:40 at 240h too.

We really need to keep an eye on the 144-168 tipping point to see if strong enough HP develops to our E/NE to fend off the Atlantic.

have an opinion

SAINT- The only tiresome thing IMO is your persistent attacks on me (both last winter and this). If I have read the charts wrongly then please do point me in the right direction. I see it as being relatively mild- thats my call. If I am wrong then so be it, but surely I am entitled to an opinion like anyone else.

P.S. Thanks Roger for having the decency for allowing someone else to have a different opinion and yes some encouragement if its colder weather your after looking at the latest ens- there could well be a battle royal brewing if this continues in the same vein.

You've brought this up before, but I think in all the time I've been on TWO, I've mentioned you three times. Hardly 'persistent'.

As I said, of course you're entitled to your interpretation of the MO. But, as I also said, your constant crowing about it being mild is tiresome & verging on trolling IMO (see, I'm also entitled to have an opinion...)

That's the winds gone.

don't mean to step on the shoes of MODs, but the really tiresome thing is having to troll through these back and forth comments that add absolutely nothing to this thread.

Meanwhile, the models perhaps lean slightly more to cold than zonal through the last output, but in all honesty i'd say its anyone's guess.

PM me if you have a problem boyo and stop refering to me as a troll which I find insulting and childish. We will have to agree to disagree- I think this winter has uptil now been mild-as my MO contributions have pointed out over the last few weeks. Take a look at philip Edens site if you think I am wrong- no use in shooting the messenger!