The ECMWF has a different take on things, and should not be dismissed as on average it has the highest verification stats for all models (although not significantly higher, and inter model means do even better than the ECM alone). 

Anyway the ECMOP has a period where blocking tries to be established at 168h

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECH1-192.GIF?06-12

we can see a section of the PV moving into SE Europe and some modest height rises over Scandanavia (I always look for the 552 500mb isopleth as a good guide for decent height rises and in this case its borderline with 552dm being reached by 192h. However these modest height rises are dwarfed compared to blocking in southern europe and the azors. This combined with a still moderately active atlantic quickly flattens the jet and absorbs the high pressure from scandanavia into a southerly position.

There are still a few runs that manage to resist this and fully amplify the ridge over scandi but these are in the minority, it would not be a good bet to plump for that situ.

By 240h we have a developed southern block 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECH1-240.GIF?06-12

Meanwhile in the north the PV shrinks and strenghens. The surface heigh over the arctic retreats further away so its influence on us weakens. 

Also note the ECMOP has another cold shot in progress over canada at this point, suggesting the dwindling of the atlntic may be tempory, this would prevent any WAA getting heights risen over greenland for instance.

What about the EPS?

People have been posting surface temp esembles forecasts, I don't have verification figures for surface temps but I am skeptical how high they are. 500mb heights however, I know do very well on all models and have a higher verification than SLP for instance. Also surface temps as we all know are subject to inversions, meseoclimates, dirunal variation e.c.t. that is too specific to easily get at such a long range. Better imo to look at overall longwave patterns.

Speaking of which the EPS mean shows the same blocking attempt at 168h over scandi

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/EDH1-168.GIF?06-12

But also the same collapse

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/EDH1-240.GIF?06-12

Here the PV over canada is particularly prominent and agrees with the OP that another cold shot is in progress. There is still some small amount of height rise over scandi but its influence does not extend over the UK. Middle europe should do well out of it though. The anomoly charts do show this blocking quite well

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/EDH101-240.GIF?06-12

The UK is very much under the influence of LP despite what looks like the right sort of 'dipole', it reminds me of the winter of 2011/2012 where all the cold air stayed out east:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/EDH100-240.GIF?06-12

And although the uncertainty for middle europe is high, for our part of the world it seems we are firmly in the mild airmass.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/EEH0-240.GIF?06-12

This corresponds to the -6C 850hpa isotherm skirting the SE of england in the absolute best case scenrio.

Indeed, Though GFS has been backing the Atlantic all Winter whereas ECM has chopped and Changed

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 4 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting through to the end of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as earlier in the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types early next month.

Updated: 1158 on Mon 6 Jan 2014

Meto as updated.Note shift in timing of possible cold weather to EarlY fen rather tahn end Jan.However Mreto aso going fora rather cold period for the week preceding this forecast period

I think the only certainty is that there is some change in the synoptics is on the cards but as per usual the exact positioning of the high is unceratin and there is no cross model agreement on this. The final positioning will make a huge difference between fog/grey skies or cold easterlies with snow. As ever we probably will not know this until T72. So far I think it is fair to say that odds are shifting toward colder and dryer conditions then of late.

And Met's view - 'The only clear trend, they say, is for no sign of mildness'

Quite.

Which is why JACKO should provide analysis to back up his claims of mildness. There is no problem whatsoever with having a preference for mild in winter. What IS problematic is simply stating "it's going to be mild" in a joyous manner, when a) you know full well most will be irked by that; b) you give no analysis backing up that claim ; c) the output does not giving any clear signals for properly mild weather anyway.

Looking again at GEFS 06h the 120h -180h period is a battle to establish HP to  the NE/E/SE of the UK with at present odds on zonal winning.

FI is a battle between various strengths and positions of HP with Atlanticfavoutrit again.

Hwever along with The Meto forecast it does look like a dry colder(but not very cold )3rd week of Jan, and  then a fully engaed struggle beween the Atlantic and HO for the last week of the month.

Be intersting to see if the pattern of possible HP establishment continues in 12h runs for GFS and other modelss

Yes, unfortunately it is looking very likely we will have to wait another few weeks or even until Feb as the METO update suggest.

Until we see a weakening of the northern arm of the jet, there is little hope. At least it looks a bit drier but if we end up with a Euroslug, we could be stuck in another wet atlantic airflow and this awful winter will continue unabated 

Amazing difference between big 2

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Yes, amazing how the only really big difference are the predicted values for North Western Europe affecting Britain and Scandinavia. Something has to give, but which one? 

Anyone got a link to the latest jet profiles? Cheers

Encouraging to see the GFS building a decent quantity of deep cold over Scandinavia.

GFS...you owe us a cold run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

yes, better so far but we need an undercut

But I did back up what I was saying, its a MO thread not a media discussion thread. And the metoffice are not saying its going to be particularly cold either. All I'm saying is that any significantly colder weather is very unlikely before the end of the month. 

Meanwhile the GFS continues to roll out...far more encouraging for longer term cold with everything further west and better aligned south to north WAA.

The battle could become very wet as the atlantic fronts run up against the block and stall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Hear hear! I enjoy reading the interpretation of the M.O's given by the more experianced members and the links they provide,, for me it's a big part of it as its built more upon a scientific basis. IMO, frustrated emotional outburts should be, perhaps, directed toward a more appropriate thread.

Indeed Steve, Gav and James mentioned that last night quite cool as well I just wonder

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=1

We do have such a thread in this forum that has been running since mid-December; the winter moaning thead.

This particular battle may be lost but what is encouraging is that energy is attempting to slip ESE'wards underneath the block..rather than NE'wards over the top of it (as was being shown until yesterday on most GFS output).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png

Longer term trends are now more encoraging..defo a step towards ECM with regards to sustained blocking in Scandinavia.

Yes, the Atlantic remains very active on the GFS 12z along with further flooding problems that will arise.

Of course is that helped by that record cold in the US and Canada moving out over warm North Atlantic waters.

Is your name JACKO? 

Same again Sam already have a leak on my wall between window I cant find

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

Met/o 12z brings in the Atlantic by 144hs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010612/UW144-21.GIF?06-18

Winter 2013-14 really has got that feeling of the horror shows of the late 80s and 90s. I cannot see any way out of this relentless zonality for more than a couple of days at a time.

 http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010612/UW144-21.GIF?06-18

My fear when it does finally turn more settled/dry, will end up with a euro type high 

Buds are starting to come on some of the trees, so an early spring will do if we can't get winter.