Monday 20 January Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook
Summary
No real sign of winter so far. Will this change?
Having already reached the middle of winter - at least from a meteorological point of view - it would be fair to say that we haven't really seen much winter weather yet; the month of December was the fourth warmest across the UK, since 1910. The first half of January has seen higher than average temperatures too.
Is this going to change in the next few weeks? That question is keeping forecasters on thier toes at the moment.
Some of the longer range forecast models seem to keep dropping hints at colder weather on the horizon but then a couple of days later the same models change to something altogether milder. Over the next couple of weeks you can be sure that we'll be keeping our eyes peeled for signs of winter.
Monday 20 January—Sunday 26 January
Feeling cooler with some frost and fog
During the early part of this week many of us will experience two traditonal winter staples that, so far, have been notable in their absence this winter; frost and fog.
So far the succession of storms have kept poor visibility at bay and have meant that, for most, scraping your windscreen in the morning has been more the exception than the rule. However, a more settled spell of weather through Monday and Tuesday. By day this should bring some bright interludes. By night though it will bring frost and fog sharply into focus.
After a brief interlude of wetter weather midweek, we then return to cooler conditions towards the end of the week.
As we head towards the weekend, suggestions are that another frontal system will move in from the Atlantic. The crucial question though is "how cold will the air be that it is running into?"
If a pool of cold air has built up over the southern half of the UK then we could see some snow. If, on the other hand, everything is moving quicker and being stirred around more, we're probably talking more about a bit of sleet before some rain. As ever, timimg will be crucial.
By the end of the weekend, whether we've had snow or rain, it seems that a return to generally milder, wet and windy conditions is on the cards.
Monday 27 January—Sunday 2 February
The end of January - any sign of winter yet?
As ever, once we look at the second week we are looking more at trends than specific detail. The trend for this week seems to be one for low pressure systems to continue feeding in from the Atlantic. These are most likely to affect the north and west of the UK with higher pressure across the south and east holding these frontal bands at bay.
This set-up would bring some dry and bright spells to southern parts, though the price we pay for this would be cold, frosty nights and patches of fog. Wetter and windier conditions will persist further north with perhaps some snow on top of hills and mountains in northern England and Scotland.
If we do see this pattern it will be very interesting to see the end of month statistics. With temperatures in December coming in above average, will January follow suit?
Monday 3 February—Sunday 16 February
Still on the hunt for firm indications
Once again, the majority of longer range models tend to favour sticking with the pattern where the north and west see bands of rain at times, while the south and east favour drier, brighter but cool conditions.
For southern counties of England any spells of drier weather would almost certainly be welcome, given the current high groundwater levels. However, the continual track of weather systems across the northern half of the UK could lead to above average rainfall for northern Scotland.
Whether or not some of the computer projections continue to throw the odd idea of a colder snap into the mix remains to be seen. It's certainly not something that we should rule out - it is winter after all. One thing is for certain, it's something that we'll all be keeping a close eye on at the BBC Weather Centre.
Next week
Will we still be hunting for signs of winter? An interesting time in forecasting, for sure.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com