JMA shows us what happens if the jet angle sends energy less to the NE than the other models take it.
Either it's missing something, or the other models have got the wrong idea. Typically, the latter is less likely, but with the high uncertainty at the moment, that's not actually saying much.
No two models agree on how the Arctic High will develop over the next 6 days, so that's a bit of a wildcard. ECM and GEM are suddenly trying to shift most of the PV energy to the UK from Canada, which would have a chance of producing the sinking trough and Arctic Ridge scenario that JMA has, only 4-5 days later. Either that or the Arctic High fades away and we end up stuck under a trough with upstream LPs swinging in.
GFS... lets just say it saw the chance to add a bit more westerly momentum and full-on sprinted with it!
For some time now I've not been taking too much from each day's 72h+ output in isolation, as doing so would just lead to frustration.
Finally - the December 2010 accounts are interesting, but they don't belong here - keep it on topic, please
Originally Posted by: David M Porter