I know what you mean Saint, but I'm sure many said something similar in late Jan/early Feb 2005 when we had had a winter very like this one until that point, yet I don't think anyone was complaining much when mid-February came and the weather changed. Last winter wasn't any great shakes either generally, but we all know what happened right at the end of it....

JMA shows us what happens if the jet angle sends energy less to the NE than the other models take it.

Either it's missing something, or the other models have got the wrong idea. Typically, the latter is less likely, but with the high uncertainty at the moment, that's not actually saying much.

No two models agree on how the Arctic High will develop over the next 6 days, so that's a bit of a wildcard. ECM and GEM are suddenly trying to shift most of the PV energy to the UK from Canada, which would have a chance of producing the sinking trough and Arctic Ridge scenario that JMA has, only 4-5 days later. Either that or the Arctic High fades away and we end up stuck  under a trough with upstream LPs swinging in.

GFS... lets just say it saw the chance to add a bit more westerly momentum and full-on sprinted with it! 

For some time now I've not been taking too much from each day's 72h+ output in isolation, as doing so would just lead to frustration.

Finally - the December 2010 accounts are interesting, but they don't belong here - keep it on topic, please 

Ahh, some wisdom

the jma op and a few gefs and gem ens members are just about all we have to cling to for cold over the next couple of weeks at least

And please, no "winter is over" type posts either. It's 19th January, not 28th February.

Good points there - In some respects I am not surprised. Bear in mind though there is another 5 to 6 weeks of winter left.

Yeah, we had a very cold March with 2 or 3 decent snowfalls.

But everytime the sun came out, the snow retreated faster than you could say "If only this was December or January". The roads quickly cleared and the underneath of the snow was a little slushy. All a bit underwhelming.

Back to the charts, however, and there's little/nothing to suggest that a repeat is on the cards, so it's moot anyway.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday January 19th 2014.

All models show the coming week as another changeable one as further troughs move in from the West and NW through the week with a band of rain moving East on Tuesday replacing the quiet and chilly weather of tomorrow when sunny spells will be plentiful away from any persistent fog. By Wednesday the trough is shown to of made it's way across to Eastern Britain where it could stay wet and chilly for a while into the day. The West will become drier and brighter with scattered showers in a chilly NW breeze. Later in the week a ridge of High pressure moves across Britain lingering over the South into the start of the weekend before strengthening Westerly winds take over by Saturday. Throughout the week all models suggest nothing particularly wet or cold though frosts will be more frequent than of late both early and late in the week.

GFS then shows the second half of the run with a notable Azores High sometimes displaced closer to the British Isles, certainly more than of late. This coupled with a strong Jet Stream powering over the Atlantic sets up a strong Westerly flow across Britain veering towards the NW on occasion. Rainfall will be much reduced to that of late, especially over the South while northern areas in particular will see some strong winds at times in temperatures never far from the seasonal average.

The GFS Ensembles are another indifferent set, basically showing that there is a lot of mileage left in an Atlantic based pattern fuelled by an active Jet stream with rain at times for all throughout the run and temperatures close to or a little below the average at times. The operational was a warmer outlier regularly in the second half.

UKMO tonight shows Low pressure near Iceland with strong Westerly breezes over the UK with a trough crossing East through Saturday with some rain for all, heaviest in the North.

GEM shows changeable weather persisting over next weekend and start to the new week as more disturbances run SE across the UK bringing rain followed by clearer and more showery weather at the same time as it becomes a little colder through the showery phases.

NAVGEM closes it's run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with a broad flow of Westerly winds with troughs blowing through in the breeze delivering rain at times in average temperatures.

ECM tonight shows much stronger winds from next weekend with strong Westerly winds with rain at times with Low pressure areas passing across to the North. Some clearer and slightly colder more showery interludes are likely at times too with some sunshine but nothing remotely wintry.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight show no overall change in the pattern with the main features likely to be present in 9 and 10 days time according to their ensembles is a strong Azores High, Low pressure near Iceland and a trough slow moving down the North Sea. High pressure is shown still over NE Europe though and no doubt some members promote this in a bigger way but the bias still remains for a West or NW flow most likely over the UK with rain or showers at times in temperatures near to or a little below average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream remains very active and will become more so later in the period as the current position of the flow to the South of the UK changes to a more direct passage Eastwards over the UK to Europe as the block to the NE declines

In Summary the pattern remains a very Atlantic driven show with a strengthening of the Jet Stream developing deeper depressions to the North of the UK from next weekend and dragging stronger Westerly winds across the UK with rain at times. However, this becomes much more focused on the North rather than the South with little in the way of disruption caused by any weather events over the coming two weeks as the charts stand tonight.

Yep if we accept that by1 44h there is good cross model agreement on the return of the Atllantic pushingaway the Scandi HP ythen the only thing that cans save the day is an easterly getting in properly before that before 144h

On the current output  eithe Wednesday or Friday represent the  best chance.Fot that to appear requires a combination of stronger better positiioned Scandi HP  thus pushing furher west,a weakening /delay in arrival time of LP to wedst later ion the week.This seems pterty unlikely (although John Hammond stated that some change could still occor in the Atlantic HP battle

meanwhile its back to the faxes

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

If anything occlusion to east is further aaay than the earlier fax for wenrsday 12hh