Two distinct and widely different options showing on the models today.
1) Short cold spell followed by atlantic break through with polar maritime conditions
(supported by ECM + GFS and possibly JMA at 84h)
2) Cold spell followed by battle ground situ as rain turns to snow from the west and falls away, leaving a bitterly cold regime
(supported by NAVGEM + GEM and possibly UKMO at 144h)
The UKMO only goes to 144h so it is dificult to see which one it goes for, but either 2) or the middle ground seems likely.
Uncertainty is unusually high with this split occuring in the reliable timeframe.
Note that the GFS 6z, has moves slighlty towards 2) over the 0Z but is still in that catogary. I really wouldn't like to forecast what happens after midweek, it looks like a forecasters nightmare.
Edited by user
26 January 2014 12:28:20
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Reason: Not specified
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.