GFS brings bitterly cold air into scandanavia from siberia in FI. This means little in itself, but I don't think anyone can rule out a cold spell later this month when -25C 850hpas are getting into Europe.
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140204/18/372/h850t850eu.png
Really frigid airmass there, and this run is by no means unique.
I think, it is likely we will see another attempt at establishing a block, even before 192h with a filling low spinning over the UK and introducing cyclonic Nerlies.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
yep more cold than we have seen all winter , ................................straw please
Originally Posted by: Gooner
I think its more than a straw, there is some consistancy in this.
The models have never been shy about blowing up a mega siberian high, the only problem has been the atlantic. There are real signs of things slowing down; with even some sliders getting into the reliable timeframe. I would say that this would be a gradual and painful process, but it could lead to a period of blocking.
The issue always has been, that just as a block establishes the atlantic reactivates with a fury and barrages its way through. But thats much less likely to happen in mid february than january.
Originally Posted by: Quantum