Thanks Martin

18z continues the trend to colder conditions. Burst of WAA after 192h in the right place, perhaps we could start to see some tasty synoptics soon. 

GFS brings bitterly cold air into scandanavia from siberia in FI. This means little in itself, but I don't think anyone can rule out a cold spell later this month when -25C 850hpas are getting into Europe. 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140204/18/372/h850t850eu.png

Really frigid airmass there, and this run is by no means unique.

I think, it is likely we will see another attempt at establishing a block, even before 192h with a filling low spinning over the UK and introducing cyclonic Nerlies. 

yep more cold than we have seen all winter , ................................straw please

I think its more than a straw, there is some consistancy in this.

The models have never been shy about blowing up a mega siberian high, the only problem has been the atlantic. There are real signs of things slowing down; with even some sliders getting into the reliable timeframe. I would say that this would be a gradual and painful process, but it could lead to a period of blocking.

The issue always has been, that just as a block establishes the atlantic reactivates with a fury and barrages its way through. But thats much less likely to happen in mid february than january. 

Not having a dig Q, I have grabbed that many this winter , there certainly does look to be a bit of a change on the way, cold enough for a bit of late winter joy??

I didn't say you were, I was just trying to inject some (not totally unfounded) optimism! :)

Interestingly the coldest part of the winter on average is the end of february where for less than a week the CET drops to its lowest value. This is true for the 10th, 50th and 90th decile only the records favour january (and of course as a whole january is a colder month).

For me february 2005 was the most exciting winter I had seen in a long while, I would not sniff at a chance at another 2005esque february. 

The NAEFES 12z continues the good trend, the blue anomolies over the UK almost disapear by 384, something that hasn't happened in a long while. My only regret is perhaps my overly high CET prediction of 4.88 :S

Oh dear, that isn't good news Karl

Agreed Jacko. A very wet and disturbed atlantic dominated set up for the foresseable future. Any talk of trends to a very cold outlook in this thread at the moment is mis-leading and detracts from the main issues that many of us are facing in the next couple of weeks. .

Those LP's are queuing up like London tube trains in a rush hour

Lets hope they go on strike too then.

There is no sign in the 0h GEFS of anything but a relentless disturbed zonal flow

Surely with all the rain forecast, the increasing risk will be widespread river flooding.?

Diabolical outlook.  Only saving grace is that the tides are neaping!

The situation is pretty serious for some,

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/144h.htm

The situation in the SE is looking very concerning in the next few days.

Reaming very unsettled almost for the next 2 weeks with alot of rain for many. Snow can't be ruled out in FI though.

Just been watching Sky News on my iPad - Cork is inundated again. What have the British Isles ever done to the weather gods to deserve such an unrelenting awfulness? Perhaps we need to make some sacrifices to the Atlantic sea god - throwing a hundred goats off Lands End might help! (That is what our Neolithic ancestors might have done anyway).