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Gavin P
24 February 2014 13:38:50

I don't think we've reached a "tipping point" really. It's just weather, all-be-it a very, very extreme and OTT variation of it.


I'm also not really the weather is more volatile than it's ever been (but it has been pretty extreme since 2006) When you look at the huge variation that occured from around 1915 to 1920, that was a VERY volatile period.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Andy Woodcock
24 February 2014 13:48:47


I think the British weather is certainly becoming more volatile, varying from one extreme to the other more often, being either cold or warm.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Perhaps it's just childhood memory syndrome, but I remember the weather of the late 70's & 80's to have been more volatile than much of the 90's & 00's.


Perhaps it was just that the 90's & 00's - dominated as the were for long periods by the 'Euro High' - which were the anomaly?


Or perhaps we go through periods of calm & more volatile as natural variation.

Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 



Very true,

Look at the 1970's,

Two very hot summers 1975 and 1976

Wettest Autumn on record 1976

One of mildest winters on record 1975

Snow in June 1975

Severe Storm in England January 1976

Storm surge in North Sea January 1978

Mega blizzards in SW England February 1978

Heavy spring snowfalls and coldest Easter on record March, April 1975

Severe winter of 1979

All the above events occurred in just 5 years, makes the last 5 years look boring in comparison!

Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Russwirral
24 February 2014 13:57:44



I think the British weather is certainly becoming more volatile, varying from one extreme to the other more often, being either cold or warm.


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


 


Perhaps it's just childhood memory syndrome, but I remember the weather of the late 70's & 80's to have been more volatile than much of the 90's & 00's.


Perhaps it was just that the 90's & 00's - dominated as the were for long periods by the 'Euro High' - which were the anomaly?


Or perhaps we go through periods of calm & more volatile as natural variation.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Very true,

Look at the 1970's,

Two very hot summers 1975 and 1976

Wettest Autumn on record 1976

One of mildest winters on record 1975

Snow in June 1975

Severe Storm in England January 1976

Storm surge in North Sea January 1978

Mega blizzards in SW England February 1978

Heavy spring snowfalls and coldest Easter on record March, April 1975

Severe winter of 1979

All the above events occurred in just 5 years, makes the last 5 years look boring in comparison!

Andy

Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 

makes you wonder if the benign weather we usually see is actually the extreme weather anomally and not the other way round.


 


Maybe the British isles is meant to see extreme weather. maybe thats the norm?


Allyj
24 February 2014 14:09:02
With regards the record rainfall I just see it as nature balancing up the years we had very low rainfall and very dry winters hence being on the brink of droughts every summer, this is just our turn to re-balance.
idj20
24 February 2014 14:11:44

Did take me a while to get into that teatime quiz programme on ITV.

But being serious, No. We would have asked the same question in the winter of 1990 and the autumn of 2000. Likewise when we had massive heatwaves in the summer of '03 and '06 and the extended dry spell in the opening years of this decade - the very thing which is prompting the use of water meters in order to control our water supply - that, in itself was a talking point and I'm sure we'll go back to dealing with all that later on down the line.
   It's just our mid-latitude climate doing it's thang, whether we like it or not as we continue to take the rough with the smooth. Certainly making me admire and respect it all the more, never will I moan about our "boring climate" again.

However - and God forbid - if the next three or four winters does go along in the same style as the one we just had then perhaps I will be more convinced that something is up with our climate. There wouldn't be much left of the Cornish Coast if it does turn out to be the case!


Folkestone Harbour. 
the converted
24 February 2014 14:27:50

Like other contributors, no is the answer. We have had two extremes so far this decade, this winter being consistently wet and stormy and ice and snow in November/December 2010. I think we will have a few more  extremes this decade at least. I would throw in a repeat of the 1995 summer at some stage. Hopefully we wont have a repeat of this winter for a longlong time. It caused awfull distruction and the after effects are still being felt

SEMerc
24 February 2014 14:48:01


Anyone who moves country based on weather alone will fail as an expat and be back in the UK within 2 years I am certain of it.
The reasons for leaving the UK can be many and varied and usually a combination of many factors and the right mix for youwill mean success.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


In my experience it's usually in order to be able to whine about the old country. I find that the people who whine the most are usually the ones who've been away the longest.
I still find it astonishing that an expat, who hasn't lived in the UK since the 1970's, can still pontifcate about this country. I've come across one or two of those.UserPostedImageUserPostedImageUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 



I don't think Syndey was pontificating at all just expressing an opinion which after all is what you do on a forum!

Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 


I wasn't having a go at him. I was having a go at expats I know personally.

SEMerc
24 February 2014 14:58:34



 Or there are those who spend their life regretting / moaning about their missed opportunity to try something different because it was too difficult or hard work.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed, you only get one go at life so if you want to do something badly enough then find a way to do it.


(Hence my current manic hoarding of Tesco points. I want to see Alaska, travelling in style to get there, and by gum I will - all being well in just over a year's time I'll be there.)


As an aside, the more I see of North America the more I like it. If I were to emigrate from the UK it'd be to Canada, although getting a permit would probably be very hard!


Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 


Well I'm biased in favour of North America, having lived a total of 12 years out there. Alaska is one state I'd love to visit.


I'm not surprised, for example, that reportedly only 12% of yanks have a passport, given that there are so many things to do and so many places to visit in North America there's no overwhelming need to go anywhere else.

Medlock Vale Weather
24 February 2014 15:35:55

Well being age 60+ I have seen enough snow to last a lifetime. I still really enjoy it though when we get it. In regards to moving away altogether of course it has crossed my mind many a time in the past. Being the age I am I was thinking of Florida a while back due to the health benefits of the strong sun after reading a book called "solar power"
I'm more of a global warming sceptic. Throughout my life we have always had changeable seasons (at least here).
From the little ice age in the middle ages and the bitter Winter of 62-63 and now this wet current Winter. To the hot very dry Summers of 1976 and 1995 and the very wet Summers of 2007 and 2012.
So our climate has always changed ("climate change" is a rather new word for it). You cannot guarantee what the next year will bring in this country and that's what make our climate interesting to me.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 



I don't think we have reached a tipping point, it was only 12 months ago the talk was of cold blocked winters caused by melting polar ice!

What this winter has shown me is that I couldn't live in the UK once I retire during the winter, yes a week or two of wind and rain sat by a warm fire is nice but 5 months! It's the endless damp and darkness that was so depressing. Living this far north the lack of daylight in a cloudy winter is terrible, it's an effect Londoners will not notice as it's always 'brighter' in the capital as I have experienced many times this winter.

I plan to spend at least half of winter beyond 2018 in Lanzarote, renting a small Villa where friends and family can come to stay, I can still get a fix of cold, snowy weather during January and February but October, November, December and March I will be abroad.

I must read that book Solar Power, it will probably confirm everything I believe about the power of sunshine and the negative effect a cloudy UK winter can have on one's health.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


It's a great read, you can get it on the link below, I think they ship to the UK. I got mine off a friend - exactly the same book.


http://www.amazon.com/Vitamin-Solar-Volume-Optimal-Health/dp/B002MY9A3U


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Osprey
24 February 2014 15:42:09

Well if you'd have been around in 82 and that 48hour blizzard with that fine snow that came through the door jam and in peoples loft you'd have thought "Hello climate change flipping ice age time"


...and 76 summer begging & pleading for it to rain (Stupid pleaders, pleaded too much as from end of August76 it didn't stop raining for ages)


I think they even imported a Indian rain dancer top help with the drought (IM serves)


 


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Edicius81
24 February 2014 16:27:33
NickR
24 February 2014 16:45:39




 Or there are those who spend their life regretting / moaning about their missed opportunity to try something different because it was too difficult or hard work.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


Indeed, you only get one go at life so if you want to do something badly enough then find a way to do it.


(Hence my current manic hoarding of Tesco points. I want to see Alaska, travelling in style to get there, and by gum I will - all being well in just over a year's time I'll be there.)


As an aside, the more I see of North America the more I like it. If I were to emigrate from the UK it'd be to Canada, although getting a permit would probably be very hard!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Well I'm biased in favour of North America, having lived a total of 12 years out there. Alaska is one state I'd love to visit.


I'm not surprised, for example, that reportedly only 12% of yanks have a passport, given that there are so many things to do and so many places to visit in North America there's no overwhelming need to go anywhere else.


Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees 


Yes, history and other cultures are so overrated.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Devonian
24 February 2014 17:06:18


I think the British weather is certainly becoming more volatile, varying from one extreme to the other more often, being either cold or warm.


The will always be natural variability with processes such as the NAO which will allow UK winters to still be cold despite the presence of higher global temperatures.


I see climate change as changing a dice (an extreme event is like hitting a 6 and climate change is adding more 6's) , you can't pin an indivdual event on climate change but in the long run it is having a role.


One of the reasons for such intense storms this winter is cold air spilling into the NW Atlantic which has been much warmer in comparison to the past. This fuels more cyclogenesis.


Originally Posted by: yorkshirelad89 


I absolutely agree bar one word, I would say 'is probably becoming'. Infact I might add a few more 'probablys' here and there 

Snowjoke
  • Snowjoke
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 February 2014 19:16:24

Lots of interesting replies to my post, but reviewing the original post, I think I worded it incorrectly!! 


What I was trying to say is 'IF' the weather/climate in the UK does change permanently for the worse with increasingly mild, wet and windy winters, then would it be enough to make you leave the country. If cold snowy winters became a thing of the past and winters like this one became the norm?


 

Gooner
24 February 2014 19:20:48



I agree with Alan........................is it really at a tipping point ( whatever that is ) extreme weather happened many many years before we were here , in my book the weather is just that and it is really just swings and roundabouts


Originally Posted by: vince 


 


brilliant post , very rare for me to agree with you ,but this is tops


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I have always liked you Vinnie


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
24 February 2014 19:22:10

But only 11 months ago was the coldest March (and more either side) for decades, so what if that was the new normal.
It's an entirely hypothetical question.


Hungry Tiger
24 February 2014 19:26:47

No - weather records are there to be broken.


When we thought mild winters were here for ever - just look at December 2010.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


richardabdn
24 February 2014 19:53:46

The weather has become unbearable over the past 8 years, particularly since the start of 2011. In the space of 18 months we've had the worst summer on record and the worst winter on record. Two seasons so vile and depressing it's impossible to have any quality of life. Not when the weather is so wretchedly foul day in day out. No better than serving a prison sentence being cooped up indoors all the time

It is not a case of there being more extreme bad weather which would at least be interesting e.g. gales, blizzards, thunderstorms. There is actually far less. What we do get is just run-of-the-mill bog-standard bad weather that goes on for an eternity - a lack of changeability. We just get stuck in patterns which spew out the same crap day in day out

This is now the fourth write-off virtually snowless winter in 8 years. I thought the 90s were bad but only 91/92 was anywhere near as snowless as these four horrors. We've just had the fourth February in a row to be less snowy than February 1998. Combined with the worst run of summers in recorded history from 2007 to 2012 the weather has never felt so much like a perpetual autumn. Right now I am thinking that I hate living in this country and would rather live just about anywhere else in the western world.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
sriram
24 February 2014 20:37:34
No we will always get all types of summer and winter
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 February 2014 22:02:55

Alan summed it up for me on page one of this thread and I'd agree with what most others have posted too.  I'm old enough to remember mild, wet winters as well as cold snowy ones, long hot summers and cool grey ones, so nothing surprises me and I'd never say never.  We always seem to come around to the question of climate change, when one season breaks records, but I don't believe climate change is anything new.


If we all fled the country because we get weather that we don't like, the UK would be pretty empty by now.  One of the things I like about living here is the changeable weather.  I think I'd get bored with weather that was predictable and I think it's because our weather is so unpredicatble that I'm happy and grateful for a snowy spell in winter and a hot sunny spell in summer.  Anyway, what would we talk about on here? 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Chiltern Blizzard
24 February 2014 23:16:18


The weather has become unbearable over the past 8 years, particularly since the start of 2011. In the space of 18 months we've had the worst summer on record and the worst winter on record. Two seasons so vile and depressing it's impossible to have any quality of life. Not when the weather is so wretchedly foul day in day out. No better than serving a prison sentence being cooped up indoors all the time

It is not a case of there being more extreme bad weather which would at least be interesting e.g. gales, blizzards, thunderstorms. There is actually far less. What we do get is just run-of-the-mill bog-standard bad weather that goes on for an eternity - a lack of changeability. We just get stuck in patterns which spew out the same crap day in day out

This is now the fourth write-off virtually snowless winter in 8 years. I thought the 90s were bad but only 91/92 was anywhere near as snowless as these four horrors. We've just had the fourth February in a row to be less snowy than February 1998. Combined with the worst run of summers in recorded history from 2007 to 2012 the weather has never felt so much like a perpetual autumn. Right now I am thinking that I hate living in this country and would rather live just about anywhere else in the western world.


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Just when I thought your postings couldn't get any more gloomy, you come up with this....brilliant stuff!   Not sure if it was the intention but it certainly made me smile - I mean "Two seasons so vile and depressing it's impossible to have any quality of life" and


"Right now I am thinking that I hate living in this country and would rather live just about anywhere else in the western world".   Great lines!


In the midst of all the gloom, anyone would think Aberdeen hadn't seen a snowflake this side of the millenium, but the past few years Scotland has had some very noteworthy winter weather.  2009/10 was within a whisker of being the coldest winter in Scotland for over 100 years (all winter three months had CSTs below 1c for instance), and within a year of that,  December 2010  was truly remarkable north of the border..... not to mention the extremely snowy March 2006.


Cheer up, still time up there for a ground frost and a bit of sleet before April if you're lucky....


 


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Rob K
25 February 2014 07:00:01
Anyone for whom a bit of rubbish weather would be enough to make them leave the country can't have much else to worry about, to be honest 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
springsunshine
25 February 2014 09:11:57


Alan summed it up for me on page one of this thread and I'd agree with what most others have posted too.  I'm old enough to remember mild, wet winters as well as cold snowy ones, long hot summers and cool grey ones, so nothing surprises me and I'd never say never.  We always seem to come around to the question of climate change, when one season breaks records, but I don't believe climate change is anything new.


If we all fled the country because we get weather that we don't like, the UK would be pretty empty by now.  One of the things I like about living here is the changeable weather.  I think I'd get bored with weather that was predictable and I think it's because our weather is so unpredicatble that I'm happy and grateful for a snowy spell in winter and a hot sunny spell in summer.  Anyway, what would we talk about on here? 


Originally Posted by: Caz 



Totally agree! Most places in the world have prdictable boring climates eg a continental type climate.


Here in the uk every season is totally unpredictable and we experience all types of extremes from time to time.


All those banging on about climate change as if its something new,its been happening for the past 4.5 billion years and events like this wet winter have happened before,many times and will happen again,its just the British weather doing what it does,it does NOT mean our climate has changed or due to the myth of AGW.

Stormchaser
25 February 2014 09:43:04

Well whatever people feel is happening out there, one thing we do know is that the average global temperature is higher now than it was two decades ago or, to a much smaller extent, one decade ago.


That ties in directly with a higher average moisture content (per unit mass).


 


Systems which develop organised areas of high moisture then amplify this effect;


Imagine filling a tub with water from 10 buckets, all 10 litres capacity, then emptying the tub and filling it with water from 10 buckets, all 10.1 litres capacity. The net gain is a whole extra litre.


 


It then follows that the potential limit for the amount of rain falling in a given period across some part of the world is higher now than it was 10 or to a larger extent 20 years ago.


A similar argument can work for heatwaves, though I feel it gets a lot more complicated with that one so I tend to leave it alone at the moment.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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Keep Calm and Forecast On
David M Porter
25 February 2014 09:46:15



The weather has become unbearable over the past 8 years, particularly since the start of 2011. In the space of 18 months we've had the worst summer on record and the worst winter on record. Two seasons so vile and depressing it's impossible to have any quality of life. Not when the weather is so wretchedly foul day in day out. No better than serving a prison sentence being cooped up indoors all the time

It is not a case of there being more extreme bad weather which would at least be interesting e.g. gales, blizzards, thunderstorms. There is actually far less. What we do get is just run-of-the-mill bog-standard bad weather that goes on for an eternity - a lack of changeability. We just get stuck in patterns which spew out the same crap day in day out

This is now the fourth write-off virtually snowless winter in 8 years. I thought the 90s were bad but only 91/92 was anywhere near as snowless as these four horrors. We've just had the fourth February in a row to be less snowy than February 1998. Combined with the worst run of summers in recorded history from 2007 to 2012 the weather has never felt so much like a perpetual autumn. Right now I am thinking that I hate living in this country and would rather live just about anywhere else in the western world.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Just when I thought your postings couldn't get any more gloomy, you come up with this....brilliant stuff!   Not sure if it was the intention but it certainly made me smile - I mean "Two seasons so vile and depressing it's impossible to have any quality of life" and


"Right now I am thinking that I hate living in this country and would rather live just about anywhere else in the western world".   Great lines!


In the midst of all the gloom, anyone would think Aberdeen hadn't seen a snowflake this side of the millenium, but the past few years Scotland has had some very noteworthy winter weather.  2009/10 was within a whisker of being the coldest winter in Scotland for over 100 years (all winter three months had CSTs below 1c for instance), and within a year of that,  December 2010  was truly remarkable north of the border..... not to mention the extremely snowy March 2006.


Cheer up, still time up there for a ground frost and a bit of sleet before April if you're lucky....


 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Richard possibly doesn't recall any of those memorable events!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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