Evening 

Here are my updated weather thoughts for Kent for the week ahead, issued 6th April @20.30hrs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1i_mCbJaTAM

 

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I have a game called 'Express Weather Bingo'. We each have a list of absurd weather forecast-related headlines that appear in the Express, and we cross them off as they appear. This year, mine are:

"Britain to bask in 100*F heatwave"

"Washout summer in store"

"Hosepipe ban on way as drought bites"

"Coolest summer on record forecast for fed-up Brits"

"Ice-Age winter on the way"

"Diana: why we're still obsessed"

 

 

 

 

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You forgot

"Madeline McCann - shock new revelations"

"New Migrant Flood on the way"

"Muslims are Evil"

"the EU is really really bad"

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I do think that for once, James Madden might just have got it right.....

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469046/The-Met-Office-confirmed-that-Britain-on-track-for-a-three-month-heatwave

Next week: Madden forecasts that night will follow day .....

Unfortunately though, the overall article is as accurate as a blind man firing a warped arrow in a hurricane

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/04/07/looking-at-the-headlines-is-summer-coming-early/

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Boring weather or something?

Not sure I've ever witnessed this thread drop to halfway down page 4 before lol

Yellow warning out for parts of the South for this afternoon/early evening

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to break out across southern parts of England early on Tuesday afternoon and die out on Tuesday evening.

The public should therefore be aware of the risk of localised flooding. In particular surface water could lead to difficult driving conditions at times. Hail and lightning are likely to provide an additional hazard locally.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

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One for South West . Down in Somerset But not Bath and North East Somerset...  

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Somebody within the metoffice must have gotten a right telling off after yesterday's shenanigans, so today we have a warning issued lol.

And it's even been updated since then to include more Northern Parts of the South East

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

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Yet bar a downpour this morning it's been a gorgeous day so far here with unbroken sun 😂

Just a heads-up that there was a new weather series starting on C4 this week (catchup below)

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/britains-most-extreme-weather/4od#3689414

I know these tend to get critical reviews on here somewhere between rubbish and mediocre but I thought this one was quite good for its type

The guy fronting it was quite savvy (Alex Beresford), It was basically looking at this winter's just gone floods and gales in the context of historical events (1703, 1859, 1953, 1987 and 1990) which all had severe events of their own. The causes of these events was examined and a little bit of pattern matching and futures (not too much of the latter thankfully)

worth a watch IMHO

 

 

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Mini-heatwave this weekend apparently - http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/britain-bask-mini-heatwave-weekend-7065095

 

WTF?!

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Monday's Mirror:

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/97439/daily_mirror_monday_5th_may_2014.html

82F and it will last two weeks...apparently!!!

 Not just The Express, then!

 

What makes me laugh is they describe that forecaster as an expert? An expert?!

This was the clown who went for a freezing snowy winter just gone.

All I can say he hasn't got any shame. No apology, no nothing.

What narks me is the media have had a go at the Met Office over failed long range forecasts in the past but keep returning to these bozos. Yet no front page criticising them when failed.

No, they are described as "experts". They go back to them. You never see an editorial criticising them.

Another thing that gets me, is this is then spread by word of mouth but people who have little interest or don't understand the weather, don't realise there are numerous weather forecasting companies. They see it as gospel. They see the weatherman on the TV and think they did the forecast when they haven't.

When it goes pear shape, all weather forecasters are then tarred with the same brush as haven't a clue, I could forecast better etc.

Rant over.

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In the voice of a paper seller

PAPERrrr!

Giant Jellyfish INVASION!

Read-all-about-it!

Get your free Jelly fish with the EXPESS!

Heatwave and jelly on the way!

It's a Plague of Jellyfishies!

Read-all-about-it!

PAPERrrr!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/474337/Forecasters-predict-May-heatwave-but-hot-weather-could-bring-plague-of-GIANT-JELLYFISH

Do they still have paper sellers up the smoke?

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on Meto is the " Chief Forecasters View " a new thing? only just noticed it lol...

But to be honest, I would expect something more indepth written rather than...

"Overnight temperatures on Thursday night are likely to dip into single figures more widely across southern Britain."

I mean a novice like myself could predict that under clear skies  ...I don't see the point of it.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/chatham_forecast_weather.html

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I did find that a bit odd as well, but I think it was a revision to the earlier text forecast predicting a minimum of 9*C for the SE region for example, which implies many areas staying in double figures.

I think.

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Rather stunning time-lapse here: http://petapixel.com/2014/05/19/storm-chasers-capture-supercell-forming-right-top-jaw-dropping-timelapse/

Met Office is predicting a below average Atlantic hurricane season

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/met-office-predicts-below-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/

NOAA is predicting a near normal or below normal season (50% chance of a below normal season)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140522_hurricaneoutlook_atlantic.html

This seems to mainly be due to an expected El Nino event which should drive stronger wind shear which of course is not conducive to strong hurricanes

 

The UK is on course for the third warmest spring since records began, forecasters say.

The Met Office said an average March-May temperature of 8.97C (48.15F) would be beaten only by 2007 and 2011 in the records, which date back to 1910.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27635564

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Bit odd since we didn't get days of 20C maxes like some recent Spring did but mainly down to warmer nights that help the UK mean figures up.  Mentioning 2007 and 2011 that brought poor summers afterward hope not a repeat for this year.

Despite the sunshine and current temperature being 12°C the BBC have forecast a high here today of 12°C.

Day after day and now month after month the BBC seem to underestimate the daily high here by at least 2 degrees. Not a massive amount but it is, given non-rainy conditions always wrong. I wrote a polite inquiring e-mail to them last year asking about the discrepancy between their national forecasts and the more accurate regional ones (and indeed more accurate Met Office forecast) and never even got an acknowledgement.

I'm row resigned to putting up with the forecasts being wrong every single day. Don't they notice or when they put the max temperatures up on the national maps do they mean the coldest WS in a sparsely located coastal location such as Inverbervie rather than where 200 000+ people live?

Although my city garden tends to be even warmer my comments are based on the official Met Office observations.

Edit: Somewhat ironically while writing the above the temperature has reached 13°C (officially) at 8:50am.

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Yesterday was "only" out by 3 degrees so pretty much in line with the consistently poor performance. Today's forecast high is 14ºC. Temperature at 8:50am was 15ºC. Somewhere around 17ºC or a bit more would be a realistic guess and that is without even looking at the models in any great detail.

Once every so often or a degree or so on 50% of dry bright days is to be expected. 2-3 degrees underestimation every single day is not really good enough as it suggests that they do not verify their won forecasts nor correct any anomalous programming. I would have expected more but as they have not replied to my correspondence in the past I just have to resort to watching their forecast and mentally adjusting the maximum values each day.

I realise it sounds petty but there is no real excuse for such continued, consistent discrepancy.

Edit: Current temperature here is 20°C (at 12:20 pm)

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met office and bbc monthly outlook show not a lot of chance for a real settled warm spell till the end of the month. going to have to be patient.

The Beeb really cocked todays forecast up , was supposed to a poor day, ended up rather pleasant

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At least they are consistent here. Today was yet again 3 degrees warmer than their forecast.😂

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