I'm perfectly happy with 10-14*C by day and low single digits by night in the first half of March - that's around the long term average or just above, and can be very pleasant in sunshine and light winds.
...hence light winds and sunshine are the details I'm now concerning myself with;
We're currently seeing a strong signal for high pressure to park right over the UK or just to the east. Both of these locations favour reasonable temperatures, and the latter can be decent for sushine too depending on the air source
We don't want an air source from the east, as that interacts with the North Sea to produce low cloud that tends to get well inland at this time of year. So a SE or S flow is preferrable.
Thankfully that's what the models are firming up on for days 5-6, but beyond that, GFS shows more of an easterly flow while ECM shows more of a SE'rly - so there's the possibility for a less than ideal setup to evolve there, but we still have a strong player voting againt that, as does GEM.
What about the winds? If the Atlantic pushes too close, we'll have a breezy spell for days 5-6, otherwise light winds look to prevail. Trouble is, the models have been known in past years to place high pressure too far south in the mid-long range, then correcting it a little way north, resulting in breezier conditions for the south at least - something to keep an eye on.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2012/archivesnh-2012-3-14-12-0.png
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014030400/ECH1-240.GIF?04-12
For those who've wondered, yes it is looking rather similar to how 2012 did during the same month.
Having said that , the Pacific Ridge is some way further east this year, and that can be an important player for the UK. We also have more of a positive PDO signal and signs of a strong El Nino as opposed to the very weak affair in 2012 that never really got going.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser