Huge differences between the European and American models today beyond +144, GFS has an extended period of dry/sunny and increasingly warm weather whereas ECM and MetO (going by todays MRF) have the high collapsing south with more unsettled weather into the north from Bank Holiday.

The difference between ECM and GFS at +192 is huge.

Just shows what a knife edge all this is.

The frosts next weekend will be a pain as I could easily record temperatures down to -4c in my sheltered rural location, my temporary winter greenhouse with all the Mediterranean plants came down in late March and the wife isnt going to happy when they spend the BH weekend in the kitchen

Andy

I haven't had much time to check in on things lately, this evening I've just scanned through GFS, GEM and UKMO, and I can see that all models have trended towards high pressure for the BH weekend, but with relatively cold air across the UK taking a number of days to warm out.

During that time, GFS has trended towards a mid-latitude block which fights against an increasing westerly flow in the Atlantic and largely wins, while GEM and UKMO (based on the day 6 position) give the Atlantic more edge, with a fairly standard westerly flow developing.

It seems to be quite common to see a westerly push not long into May. Many recent years have then had the jet a bit too far south for much of the UK to experience particularly great conditions, with only the SE getting away with that sort of thing.

This year we look to be in a better starting position to try and keep more of a ridge from the SW in play, and recently I've started to wonder if this may be to do with the region of sharp SST gradient (usually present in some shape or form) in the western Atlantic being located further south this year, causing troughs to dig further in that direction upstream of the Azores High, which has the effect of displacing it to the E/NE.

Yup, seems the default option this year, Im beginning to think we could get a CET record this year.  Bring it on I say.

Quite a cold plunge by the JMA

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014042712/J120-7.GIF?27-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014042712/J132-7.GIF?27-12

But it won't last as milder uppers move in

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014042712/J192-7.GIF?27-12

I must admit I didn't see that ECM run coming...! Guess that means UKMO could be headed that way as well, with GEM just being GEM as usual 

Interesting how the idea of an Atlantic trough sneaking over the ridge has remained, but all of a sudden the jet stream is modelled to track right on NE rather than take a sharp dive south.

...but will it hold? You can never be sure with these things.

The GFS 18z looks truly summery now, after warming up a bit at 12z

May it herald the start of 4 months of high pressure. 

ECM represents the ideal mix; we get just enough of a westerly push to wedge high pressure right over the UK, followed by enough of a relaxation in the upstream jet to prevent the Atlantic from flattening the ridge and bringing changeable westerlies as per GFS and to a lesser extent GEM.

Worth noting that ECM differs markedly to GFS in terms of the orientation of the Atlantic troughs even at just 5 days range, and this greatly affects how rapidly warmer air mixes into the high pressure.

Past experience leans towards ECM, as it tends to rule the roost out to day 5, and for what happens afterwards GFS often tones down the westerlies in the mid-range as the time draws nearer.

Right, time to go take on an exam in Tropical Weather with a smile on my face 

Indeed Nick- we sure deserve that after the foul winter we had!

High teens more likely but you do have a habit of overreaching on temp.

Quite a pleasant spell of weather coming up for the start of May should it verify.

here! behave Ally saw of Retron several weeks ago ,when he was rebuffed for his 18 degrees , I wouldnt want you going the same way  you of all people should be wanting it hotter unless of course your desire for thunder has gone

Hay Vince, I love a good plume which is almost certian to bring a good storm or to in summer.

May it herald the start of 4 months of high pressure. 

i would be fairly doubtful about that and any way after a month of dry the farmers and growers will be looking for rain again.

What I find remarkable is that the models love to push everything so far east. Originally they had the LP where the HP is, surely they can't move it so far easy this time? But amazingly the models did. I guess it isn't too suprising, consider how many LPs fall into the north sea or push out to the east, verses how many fall to the west of the UK in a northerly blast. The later (at least in winter) I could probably count on half a hand (I'm talking about proper lows, not triple point waves).  Anyway vis a vis wintry showers:

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/04/28/basis06/ukuk/th85/14050306_2806.gif

With these sort of partial thicknesses it becomes virtually impossible to predict if it will be cold enough for snow. That said high pressure is not encouraging for shower activity anyway, but despite this we are likely to still see some pretty severe frosts (relatively speaking - for the time of year ofc) :

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/04/28/basis06/ukuk/tmin/14050406_2806.gif

Hi Guys. Though my personal circumstances continue to get in the way of my life at the moment I have been told that 'life goes on' and with that in mind I have decided to resume my daily analysis of the models with you, though only once a day in the morning for now. Hope mods don't mind me putting this here but I know some of you have missed my reports and I would also like to thank those that have offered support over what has been and still is a traumatic time for me. For now to keep things on topic here is my effort from this morning lifted from my website bearing in mind it is taken from the 00zs

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY 28TH APRIL 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. The UK lies in a slack flow around a weakened Low over Norther France. A weak upper Low near Northern Ireland will maintain it's own feed of light winds over Northern Britain.

GFS  shows a showery week to come as pressure is shown to remain slack across the UK as an injection of further shallow Low pressure crosses the South through this week. By the weekend High pressure is shown to move down across the UK settling things down into colder and brighter weather at the weekend with frosts at night. The trend thereafter appears to be a continuation of High pressure maintained close to the East or SW of the UK with a lot of dry weather, especially in the South.although incursions of Atlantic energy crossing East to the North of the UK at times could deliver occasional rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland as it becomes warmer in the South.

UKMO By the weekend High pressure is shown to have become established across the UK with attendant fine and dry weather with sunny spells but with the strong possibility of unwanted overnight frosts inland.

GEM This model shows the same trend as High pressure develops across the UK next weekend. Thereafter High pressure does slip away South a little allowing some Atlantic fronts to affect the North with rain in places. At the same time as winds back more Westerly milder air should remove the frost risk with somewhat warmer days too in the South.

NAVGEM keeps a strong ridge from High pressure over the Low Countries early next week with the weather set fair across all areas with some warm sunshine by days and although cool night still frosts should become less prevalent the deeper we move into next week as winds turn more Southerly.

ECM this morning shows High pressure well established across the UK through much of next week following a fine but chilly weekend. The resultant conditions would continue fine and bright with temperatures by day and night recovering somewhat with any rain unlikely anywhere.

MY THOUGHTS  It looks like the common denominator between the models this morning is that High pressure will become established at least for a time, coming down from the North before settling down across or near the UK over the Bank Holiday weekend and next week too from ECM, NAVGEM and to some degree GFS too. Any rainfall risk will look restricted towards any Atlantic incursion into the far North of Britain next week though taken as a whole a lot of dry, bright and pleasant weather looks likely next week though a heatwave looks unlikely at the moment.

Cheers GIBBY.

Nice to have you back.

Great to have you back Gibby. Always read  the word on your site every day.