HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY 20TH MAY 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure is positioned to the SW of the UK filling slowly and moving slowly back towards the SW. Two troughs straddle the UK, each weakening as they move North and NW over Northern Britain.

GFS The GFS Ensembles show weakening Low pressure under slowly rising pressure as we move through the Bank Holiday Weekend. The weather likely would be a mix of sunshine and local heavy showers but a fair amount of dry weather too in average temperatures. Longer term indications suggest a continuation of quite quiet weather with light winds and occasional rain but a lot of dry, bright and reasonably warm weather too especially in the South and East.

UKMO UKMO has moved towards rather higher pressure this morning over the Bank Holiday Weekend. As a result I can be more optimistic that such conditions will give rise to a decent spell of weather over the weekend for many with some showers too, local but heavy where they occur.

GEM The GEM operational is more bullish about holding somewhat stronger Low pressure to the SE of the UK with a cool NE breeze and showery rain at times while the best weather holds out to the NW, close to a ridge extending NE from the Azores.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows shallow and showery Low pressure over England to start the weekend gradually lifting out of the UK as pressure builds gently from the SW.

ECM also indicates rising pressure at the weekend meaning the weather as a whole may not be that bad for many over the Bank Holiday as the shallow Low over England fills up. Showers are possible in decreasing numbers day by day before a re-establishment of showery low pressure occurs later next week.

MY THOUGHTS  In general this morning there is good cross model support that the Bank Holiday Weekend weather may not be as bad as first thought. Pressure from most output is shown to rise, perhaps to in excess of 1020mbs at the weekend meaning any showers from the unstable upper air will be less widespread than indicated by yesterdays charts. Temperatures will be close to average generally but it will feel warm in the sunshine. Longer term and the models still show rather changeable weather with no definitive pattern indicated on this morning's chart. However, taken as a whole the weather will probably end up being non disruptive with plenty of dry, bright weather mixed in with cloudier and more showery periods and temperatures never straying far from the seasonal average.

Thank you Martin. Glad the output is for better holiday weather. Just right for Kilmersdon Village Day.. 

I can assure you that the last 4 summers have not been endless BBQs. I have already had more meals outside this year than I had during the whole of 2012.

No BBQs here in the SOUTH WEST..  Met  Office   Yellow warning for Heavy Rain  on  Thursday..

 If it is correct it would be great news for us long suffering northerners who have spent the last 4 summers watching Londoners having endless BBQ,s while here it never stopped raining.

However, I will believe it when I see it!

eh? currently several degrees cooler here than cumbria with light rain showers . i should get on with your bbq now

You must have missed last July! Plus I don't remember London having a particularly great summer back in 2012 when everywhere it seemed was getting continually deluged.

Where were you last July Andy? Northern parts of the UK enjoyed the heatwave that month every bit as much as southern areas. And last summer was, although not a classic, much better over the piece than any summer from 2007 up to and including 2012.

12z GFS seems to have got rid of most of the unsettled look by week two.

A ridgetastic offering from the Met O   http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

JMA at end of it's run has the Azores high ridging into the UK, away from Scotland, NI and far North of England it looks dry with warm sunshine.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014052012/J192-21.GIF?20-12

Warmish uppers return, who knows the cooler blip this week may well be a short affair 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014052012/J192-7.GIF?20-12

With a very weak jet stream and a weak cut-off low in place, the models look a bit lost for the weekend.

They vary in terms of how strong the residual low is, with GFS strongest and UKMO weakest. The weaker, the better in terms of air temperatures, as the LP has less of a circulation with which to draw in the polar maritime air to the W and NW.

ECM, UKMO. JMA and GEM then lift the trough quite a way north between noon Sunday and noon Monday. This occurs due to a weak ridge to the E of the UK. A ridge of sorts then arrives from the SW... but to what extent is unclear, as the models struggle with the residual energy from the trough and how it interacts with a more marked system developing over France/Germany.
UKMO and JMA seem to have a cleaner version of events, with the ridge having less trouble getting across the UK.

GFS sees that ridge too, but brings the Atlantic trough further east by Monday, causing it to combine with the lifting UK trough. Despite this, the trough slips to our SW and dissipates, allowing a ridge in from the SW.

Really then, the main form of disagreement tonight is on how far north the trough is on Sunday, and how much of the cooler Atlantic air it has drawn across the UK.

Odds are it will be fresher than much of the working week has been, with temperatures average at best when considering both day and night combined.

GFS going for a thoroughly unpleasant Thursday here, single figure max temps and heavy rain most of the day, a shock to the system after the last few days.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014052012/48-778UK.GIF?20-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014052012/48-779UK.GIF?20-12

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140520/18/117/h850t850eu.png

The 18z GFS op joins UKMO, ECM etc. and shows us the difference in surface conditions that arises from having the cut-off trough both weaker and notably further SE than on the 12z op run:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140520/12/123/ukmaxtemp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140520/18/117/ukmaxtemp.png

The cooler Atlantic air is wrapped in a lot less on the 18z, giving 2m temps some 2-6*C higher depending on where you look at (biggest changes for the western half of the UK).

Here's hoping that this version of events either holds or adjusts toward the LP being even further SE... we could still manage a half-decent BH weekend or better; the 18z goes on to bring light winds and 2m temps into the 20's widely on BH Monday 

The models appear to be firming up on an increasingly warm and humid week next week with the most settled conditions in northern and western areas with the risk of thundery showers further towards the south and east. Great growing weather and not too bad if you ask me. .

I did a double-take this morning upon discovering full cross-model agreement (significant models only i.e. ECM, UKMO, GEM and GFS) regarding the positioning of a trough across NW Europe with the UK on the periphery, this then locking into place with little movement for many days.

There's a serious frontal boundary issue that comes with that - somewhere or other is likely to get stuck under persistent rain of substantial magnitude.

These cut-off lows are nearly always overcooked at the 5-6 day range (just look at how things have evolved for later this week compared to what was seen at range!), but GFS shows that even a weak feature could still bring a lot of cloud and spells of rain our way, leaving us in a regime of mild nights (double digits widely) but days in the mid-teens at best under the cloud.

Across the NW, it could be quite fine, under high pressure and reasonably warm air - a taste of summer there perhaps? Or at least late spring... which would be appropriate!
Meanwhile, unless the trough is modelled further south with the high pressure more dominant, the NE may face a lot of onshore wind issues... not great at all.

Over the same period, with upper air temperatures in of 8-12*C being modelled further south, any sunnier regions could see temperatures rise markedly. Given the huge area of clearer skies currently across a large swathe of the UK despite being right under a trough, somewhere in England and Wales could get lucky each day next week... we'll see.

Indeed.

Quite a messy outlook with that Continental thundery low never far away from the south and east at times throughout next week.

A messy FI to.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY 21ST MAY 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure is positioned near Iberia. This will drift NE towards SW England tonight and tomorrow. A thundery trough will move North across England and Wales later tonight with a residual front lying SW to NE near NW Scotland weakening slowly.

GFS The GFS Ensembles show Low pressure over Southern Britain weakening slowly over the Bank Holiday Weekend. While there all areas can expect some showers, with some heavy, thundery showers in places but with some dry and brighter spells too, especially on Monday. A NE breeze then is shown to affect Southern Britain next week with cool weather and further showers here while Northern areas become dry and bright under slack pressure. Late in the run winds fall light for all under continuing slack pressure with bright spells, normal temperatures and scattered showers.

UKMO UKMO shows Low pressure from Europe affecting Southern Britain early next week with a cool Easterly breeze and some showers Northern Britain have the best chance of staying dry and bright under slack pressure and light winds.

GEM The GEM operational is also showing quite a stiff NE breeze developing across Southern Britain next week with some showers thrown out over the South from Low pressure over nearby Europe. Further North High pressure close to northern Scotland will make for dry and bright weather here with normal temperatures.

NAVGEM NAVGEM trends towards keeping a slack pressure gradient over the UK with a 'col' area between Low pressure to the west and East and High pressure to the North and SW. Plenty of dry weather will be experienced but with scattered showers at times almost anywhere too.

ECM has also backed the theme of developing Low pressure to the East over Europe meaning Easterly winds across the South next week. This means it too would likely make for showers at times across the South on a cool breeze while Northern areas are much less breezy with some sunny spells and just well scattered showers.

MY THOUGHTS  Todays model output shows a continuation of the generally showery theme across the UK with the increased likelihood of Low pressure developing over Europe and setting up an Easterly flow across Southern Britain which could feel rather chilly. In addition to this it appears that as a result of that Low pressure showers will be pushed across the South from Europe on most days. Further North it looks more likely that there will be some lengthier drier spells though with no definitive pressure system close by to here the provision for at least well scattered showers exists here too. Then at the extreme end to the runs it looks like benign pressure gradients across the North will extend to all with light winds, bright spells and well scattered showers plus average temperatures for late May/early June.

Thank you Martin.. Sunshine and showers and average figures are fine.

Agreed as it very nice outside now despite is not HP and it stayed dry so far as yesterday London ensembles went for rain spikes that failed to occur.  Been there before when forecast for lot of rain and showers in a week of May some years ago and ended up a lovely week.  I only look at 0z runs every morning for car boot sales forecast and this Bank Monday look great with low 20's with more HP influence than yesterday 0z runs which was around 20C.  Last week models went for a bit of unsettled weather here but downgraded on every run and eventually I got a 27C recorded on Sun and 28C on Monday.  I think 24-25C would be reached on BH Monday since with lot of heat in Europe are not far away.  Will see tomorrow 0z if they continue to upgrade the warm and pressure pattern.

With Spring nearing to the end it had been very good with many useable days and decent weekends bar few wet ones.

It seems that in the past couple or three runs on GFS, they all showed an easterly component for the next fortnight.
  With that to mind, it looks like being a fine line between us getting low cloud and drizzle if the wind is more as a NE, or fine and clear conditions where temperatures would soar under low humidity if the wind has a longer fetch in from the near Continent.