ECM has also adjusted the Atlantic trough westward... good progress this evening towards avoiding a large transfer of energy from the Atlantic to central Europe 

Still need to see JMA and GEM on board before I can relax a bit more though!

There are two distinct options; the jet stream in the Atlantic will either take a flat track eastward and combine with the Euro trough, or it will curve northward and entice the Euro trough to lift out NW or N.

For the curve northward, the slower Atlantic trough should do the trick, because as the associated dip in the jet becomes larger (i.e. amplifies), so does the ridge ahead of it, increasing the odds of the jet curving north.

There are some tight margins involved here, and I get the feeling we'll see a few of these situations over the coming summer. I'm hopeful, though, that the Atlantic trough will tend to be further west for a good part of June, helping to avoid these tense periods of model watching.

The ECM spreads are suddenly showing a lot more runs taking the trough to the SW of the UK with high pressure closer to the east/northeast. This is very reminiscient of what happened with regards to modelling that trough a week ago, except this time there appears to be a bit more room for adjustments west - fingers crossed for a bigger westward shift this time around.

With many long range models signalling for recurrent high pressure to the NE over the next month or two, a feature that the models typically struggle with a lot, I am bracing myself for very little model consistency for the forseeable 

Mods! Please excuse I know it's off topic.

With this almost constant rain all ba a week of two of dry weather since last December

I'm seriously considering investing in some sort of covering for work areas. This weather has played havoc with parts of the

construction industry

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY 27TH MAY 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack Low pressure area lies over the near Continent with an occluded front straddled East to West across Eastern England slow moving.

GFS The GFS Ensembles show a strong build of pressure under a ridge from the Azores High at the weekend before pressure falls again from the NW into next week with rain, showers and eventually a stiff breeze too as Low pressure resides close to the South for a time late next week before another attempt at a build of pressure from the SW is indiacted again at the end of the run. The operational run is more focused on maintaining Northern blocking late in it's run ensuring showery weather is maintained around the UK even by then.

UKMO UKMO shows a strong ridge of High pressure over the UK next Sunday before pressure is shown to slowly leak away to the SW next week with slack pressure re-invigorating the risk of showers almost anywhere.

GEM The GEM operational looks a lot like UKMO this morning with slack pressure early next week following the ridge of High pressure at the weekend. It then moves forwards through next week with a complex structure of Low pressure developing over or to the SW of Britain with rain or showers returning, especially towards the South.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is a little different to the rest though the weather at the surface will be moderated only somewhat differently. The ridge at the weekend is a much shallower affair but holding it's axis to the West of Britain with a Northerly in the far East keeping the risk of the odd shower.

ECM today shows the ridge of High pressure and attendant better weather over the UK at the weekend short-lived as it too shows pressure leaking away early next week with Low pressure sliding SE to the SW of Britain to lie to the South of Britain at the end of next week. Showers and outbreaks of rain will return to the UK next week before becoming restricted to more Southern areas by the end of the run with drier and warmer weather over the North while Eastern coasts could become plagued by cool and misty low cloud.

MY THOUGHTS  The pattern remains a very changeable one this morning and not reflective of what we would like to see as we enter June. With pressure looking like staying relatively High to the North and NE of the UK Low pressure areas look like continuing to feed under it towards the UK or to the SW keeping the Azores High in check as far as it influencing the British Isles is concerned. While a ridge from it does offer some respite briefly at the weekend it looks like collapsing quite quickly early next week in response to Low pressure coming down from the NW. The net result looks likely that we will end the period with a North/South split with the North looking like it could become drier and warmer late in the period while the South remains at risk of rain on an East wind in association with Low pressure somewhere to the South with temperatures suppressed as a result.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140527/00/ecmt850.144.png

Signs of a brief split-jet scenario in the nid-Atlantic are emerging this morning, which carries some of the Atlantic energy NE (to pass NW of the UK) while the rest heads SE.

Both ECM and GFS quickly reduce the northern arm to almost nothing, however, with the southern arm of the jet taking over.

On the face of it, this might not sound very good, and for the far south, there's certainly a real risk that it won't be... but on the other hand, a split jet often sees the southern arm dive right down to the Med. or even N. Africa, sparing the UK the worst of the troughs, and sometimes allowing high pressure to dominate our weather.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140527/00/ecmt850.192.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140527/00/ecmt850.240.png

Signs are, this one doesn't dive so far, keeping things unstable in the south, though very much on the warm side overall, either from relatively warm nights or very warm days, depending on whether you're under cloud and rain or some clearer air and sunshine.

A look at GFS reveals that it steers troughing along the northern arm of the jet a bit longer than ECM, before changing it's mind as the southern arm takes over. That means the trough slides through the UK, making for a less warm - but still near average for the most part - version of events.

UKMO at day 6 appears to have treated the trough behaviour much as ECM does, offering support for that version of events.

GEM manages a messy version of the ECM run, which is a big gain as it was the most bullish about driving a large Atlantic trough through the UK yesterday.

Overall, then, it appears that the tendency to adjust a sliding trough SW has struck yet again, this time also combining with a (less common) tendency to divide energy up a bit more rather than just pile it all into one low pressure system.

IF this new solution of the trough sliding to the SW of the UK holds and verifies, it will start to seem as if we should always expect such corrections this summer... 

Wow! On the very rare occasions when the weather systems arrive from the east, it makes a huge difference to the experience here in the normally arid flatlands. There was none of the usual "fizzling-before-they-get-here" about last night's approaching fronts - 20mm since midnight - and a lot more rain to come from those wriggling serpent-like occlusions by the look of the charts.

Some short respite at the weekend but beyond that I am not encouraged by the current output.

Rather complex the output from Martin this morning.. Possible chilly nights which is not a nice thing to have... Seems no change until Middle of next month. 

Very changeable than.

If these systems bring thunder/convective activity I don't mind, but if they bring persistent rain for days on end than no thanks.

 I think having to give a blanket approach for the UK as I do in my reports first impressions of my text can be deceiving when you consider events in any one place. In actuality in these slack pressure scenarios conditions in any one place can end up not being too bad but that attained in a broadly unsettled setup and certainly should be taken into consideration when reading my UK wide thoughts this morning. The chances are Duane there is some potential for some more of those lumbering thundery slow moving showers in the next 10-14 days but as always not everyone will see them. 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update - Showery Conditions Extending Into June;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Not a great start to summer.

If only  it  was  winter

I understand your pain as normally that is the type of weather I have to endure but in Cumbria easterly winds in summer usually mean warmth and sun and while this May the easterlies have seen throughs embedded in them from time to time Cumbria has enjoyed a lovely month.

Just been out and cut the grass, its 18.4c with 3/8 cloud cover so I was sweating a bit under the sunshine, yesterday was good as well and the rainfall total for the whole weekend was just 7mm.

I love easterlies

Andy

A North/South split with the best weather in the North, that must be a first!

If it verifys then well done to the MetO who mentioned this pattern developing in June a week ago.

Andy

Aye, this sort of set up in winter would have given my neck of the woods nearly .....

........ 0.2mm of snow by now!

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014052712/UW144-21.GIF?27-19

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014052712/gfs-0-180.png?12

This is getting very interesting indeed now; the trough dropping south while well to the west of the UK is the catalyst used by various GFS and CFS runs in recent times to bring about the 'heat from the east', just as the 12z GFS op run does today, albiet from a whole fortnight ahead of now.

Another good sign is for a stronger steering flow running east to west, which has the potential to bring about a gradual retrogression of the mean trough position as time progresses.

Of course, these features are by no means a given, and with such a rapid shift towards them having occured over the past 48 hours, there's room for plenty more wobbles yet.

UKMO has come up with a much quicker route to the 'heat from the east' than GFS and GEM have done, largely through dropping that trough even further west. All eyes on ECM to see if it offers any support - at 96 hours it's more like GFS so perhaps UKMO is showing us something a little too optimistic (or perhaps a glimpse of tomorrow's consensus... who knows eh?) .

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014052712/ECM1-168.GIF?27-0

Ah well. ECM sure does love to ramp up those sliding lows for some reason. I'd love to understand why exactly 

Anyway, the setup is good for building those heights to the E and NE, and the door is well and truly open for that trough to continue sliding on down to Central Europe.

The trough moving into the Eastern Med. from N. Africa could be a key player in that happening... which unfortunately is seldom a reliably modelled feature.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014052612/ECM1-192.GIF

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014052712/ECM1-168.GIF?27-0

24 hours ago compared to the current 12z run -  just look at how much adjustment has occured to the NE of the UK, with much less energy travelling that way and as a result a much stronger block there.

It never ceases to amaze me how much the models struggle with that region.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014052712/ECM1-192.GIF?27-0

Extreme Atlantic progression alert! Very similar to the GEM 12z op run actually, and about the only way that the trough across the UK could have been prevented from carrying on to Central Europe .

Based on recent trends to slow down the jet stream, this evolution seems highly questionable now. Never mind, try again tomorrow...

ECM seems to be all over the place just now; no two successive runs seem to be the same.

I know what you mean Rob.

Good description there.

One thing most of the model have in common this morning is epic northern blocking!

As to the most likely outcome over us......

A Great North /South divide is not welcome in June.

Yes not good and an alarming trend (if you like hot settled weather) I see repeated this morning from a previous GFS run late Monday night is retrogression to Greenland in FI:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

Couldn't be 6 months earlier! 

Seems to be if GFS repeats something at the moment in FI quite often it comes off down the line.

Of course all FI and JFF as we are still in May, but for the immediate future does look like northern blocking is taking hold - but for how long?

Indeed, I would be wary of the longer range models demonstrating wall to wall high pressure and warm uppers; it has been demonstrated in the past the resolution fails to pick up these 'polka dots' of low upper heights that have blighted recent summers. I think the bigger clue is in the consensus for low heights over southern Europe - look at the precip anomaly anticipated for June -   http://i.imgur.com/qCUGKu2.gif

Perhaps a thunder fest for the south but equally possible that sunshine levels are low due to convective debris.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY 27TH MAY 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Shallow Low pressure over the Low Countries will move slowly West then SW towards Southern England tomorrow with an occlusion sinking slowly South across Souther England tomorrow.

GFS The GFS Ensembles show a ridge of High pressure affecting the UK at the weekend with dry and bright weather for many. Then as we move through next week pressure steadily falls somewhat with the South in particular returning to the risk of showers and outbreaks of rain at times throughout the remainder of the run. There is High pressure in weak for relatively close by to the North with some dry and fine weather biased here with some warm sunshine in sheltered parts. Winds will be generally light overall.

UKMO UKMO shows a strong ridge of High pressure over the UK next Sunday before pressure is continuing ro show the slow release of pressure from the UK with light winds and showers becoming an increasing risk again as we move through the early part of next week. Having said that a fair amount of dry, bright and luke warm weather is likely in any one place.

GEM The GEM operational shows next week as increasingly showery again across the South after a better weekend. The North will see the best of any prolonged and dry weather, all this as a result of slack Low pressure developing over the South maintaining light winds overall it will feel pleasantly warm in between the showers.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a decent weekend for many leading into some further dry and bright conditions across the North next week. However, Southern areas continue to be at risk of showers again as slack Low pressure areas develop over or to the South of the UK easing away slowly South late in the run.

ECM today shows the ridge of High pressure and attendant better weather over the UK at the weekend short-lived as it too shows pressure leaking away early next week with Low pressure sliding SE to lie to the South-west of Britain at the end of next week. Showers and outbreaks of rain will return to the UK early in the week with the most extensive rain and showers likely towards Southern and Western parts while the North and East see some brighter periods with a cool East breeze near the North Sea.

MY THOUGHTS  There seems little overall change in the long term prospects shown by the models this morning. There seems little enthusiasm in the models to migrate Azores High Pressure or Northern blocking High pressure to a favourable enough position to ensure the UK becomes dry, settled and warm. Instead for much of the upcoming period we lie in the void between the two with Low pressure squeezing down from the NW either over or to the SW of Britain maintaining the risk of showers, especially over Southern Britain and suppressing temperatures to close to average with cool uppers over the UK for the most part. Nevertheless, there will be some dry and brighter spells for all and being as it's June the sun will feel warm when it breaks through and winds should be mostly very light.