Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

High Pressure Holds Sway

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Turning into a great start to summer and no sign of the dreaded deterioration yet.

Enjoy.

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Details next week will remain highly uncertain until short range I reckon. The reason for this can be illustrated by the day 5 charts from GFS, GEM and UKMO:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2014061212/gfs-0-120.png

The GFS 12z has the high sitting far enough north and rounded enough to produce a flow from the NNE which has a long track across the North Sea. This supresses daytime maximums across the eastern half the UK to between the mid and high teens, improving as you go west.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/archives/2014061212/gem-0-120.png

GEM has more of a 'sausage' high which doesn't position quite as far north. The surface flow is more N or even NNW across all but the far SE, reducing the westward extent of low cloud generated by the North Sea. The GFS 06z showed this sort of thing in more detail.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014061212/UW120-21.GIF

UKMO has a similar high to GEM, but it extends just a little further east, with a N to NE flow across much of the UK, more easterly in the SW of course (as it also is on the GFS and GEM solutions). This version of events would likely bring fine conditions to the majority of us, with maximum temperatures in the low to perhaps mid-20's Celsius.

 

The trend over the past few GFS runs has been to increase the low cloud impact, which is of some concern, although with the way June as been so far, a few cloudy, cool days would be just about tolerable for the likes of myself, provided conditions picked up again by the weekend 

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY JUNE 13TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure remains centred close to Southern and later Western Britain as a weakening cold front moves South across England tonight and tomorrow morning.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today are maintaining High pressure close to the UK for the majority of it's 15 day period today with only cracks in the armour of it's persistence showing towards the very end of the run as some ingress from the Atlantic brings the risk of some rain at times then. It's centre remains the crucial part in determining surface temperatures across the UK and once more today it is more favoured to sit close to the West maintaining the risk of a cooler drift from the North and NE at times and therefore maintaining the sunniest and warmest conditions towards the SW.

UKMO UKMO shows much less of this Northerly feed with High pressure anchored over the UK through the middle of next week with fine, sunny and warm weather for all as a result with the SW maintaining the highest temperatures and most prolonged sunshine.

GEM The GEM operational today is up to it's tricks again by throwing a spanner in the works by pushing UK based High pressure away to the West and NW late next week and allowing a more unstable Northerly feed to take hold for several days with an increased risk of showers and cooler temperatures. It does redress High prressure back across the UK by Day 10 however with fine and bright weather returning in average temperatures.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is also very High pressure based with the centre up to the NW keeping a gentle North or NE flow over Britain with the best conditions in the SW where temperatures and sunshine will be at it's most dominant. It would be dry nationwide from this pattern.

ECM The ECM operational today is also showing High pressure dominance throughout it's run. With the centre most often to the NW with the highest uppers across the SW and West of the UK here will be the highest temperatures and sunniest skies while Northern and Eastern parts could be more prone to variable cloud cover, cooler but still dry weather.

MY THOUGHTS  Today's output continues the dry theme shown over recent days as this early Summer High pressure remains in total control of the UK weather from all models but GEM. It's the position of the High's centre that is testament to what conditions will be felt at the surface across the UK with the vast majority of output showing it's centre close to northern Ireland and western Scotland maintaining a drift from the north and NE. This will encourage the very best conditions to be reserved for South Wales and SW England where some very warm days are likely while other areas though pleasant will remain at risk of more variable cloud but dry conditions under a cooling breeze from the North and NE. GEM and the latter part of GFS are the only operationals today that do show High pressure receding far enough away briefly to allow for some cool showers from the North before recovering at the end of GEM's run but this is the minority solution. So in a nutshell fine and settled weather is the name of the game nationwide over the next few weeks and while never exceptionally hot temperatures will be close to normal or above everyday especially towards the SW.

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Thank you Martin. Fine Output..  West is best...

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Looking very good for this area 👍

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Looks fine for the next 10 days at least.

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Indeed. Stunning output across the models today. ECM is particularly stunning, with no end in sight to high pressure.

Long may this continue. God knows we deserve it after the winter we've endured.

Never particularly hot, which is a bit of a shame, but temperatures comfortably into the 20s throughout will do me (and a lot of others no doubt).

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The ECM 00z seems like a reasonable blend of the various model output this morning.

UKMO has managed to find a stronger Atlantic LP, hence the HP ends up further east and conditions turn very warm for many of us, while GEM on the other hand has a more notable development to our N that slides to our east and temporarily pushes the HP quite a bit to the west (it's all set to head back east again from the day 10 chart).

 

The GFS 06z appears to have tried to blend the ECM and GEM versions of events, only to then get carried away with the Atlantic westerlies beyond day 8.

 

With the seemingly stalled trough activity both to our east and west, it appears that it will take a long time for our ridge of high pressure to move anywhere!

This is not a long way off how 1976 managed it's insanely long spell of mostly settled weather under high pressure:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1976/archivesnh-1976-6-15-12-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1976/archivesnh-1976-6-21-12-0.png

 

That year did then see the Atlantic tracking further and further north, with a ridge from the Azores coming to dominate:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1976/archivesnh-1976-6-27-12-0.png

...only for the pattern similar to what we have now to re-emerge:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1976/archivesnh-1976-7-5-12-0.png

- and it wasn't entirely plain sailing either:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1976/archivesnh-1976-7-9-12-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1976/archivesnh-1976-7-30-12-0.png

 

Interesting food for thought - and it shows that the way some of the older generations remember that summer (endlessly sunny and mostly hot, in the case of my grandparents) is a bit scant on details 

 

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Hi all,

Here's today's longer range video update:

Breakdown At The End Of June?

www.gavsweathervids.com

We've got the longer range models showing a breakdown before month end, while the shorter range models are high pressure all all the way, so an interesting contrast between short and long range.

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I just knew that was going to be the case. How did I know that? My Birthday is on the 29th June and I can't remember the last time I had experienced proper summer-like weather on my birthday - well, I'm sure there has been a few in this life time but since it does seem to coincide with the final European Monsoon, which is usually the weakest before high summer starts proper. With that to mind, it may be the reason why decent weather on my birthday is often the exception rather than the norm.

Until then, indeed, we have an extended spell of dry and settled weather lasting between 7 to 10 days to look forward to, but it's doing the exact same thing as this time last year - as in the core of the high pressure being positioned in the "wrong place" (to the north west of the UK). So, as a result winds at this end will often be coming in from the north, north east or east, hence it won't get that particularly hot around here. That will suit me fine, as long as it all comes with a nice drop of sunshine and not too much in the way of North Sea clag coming our way.
  But, it would only take small tweaks in the positioning of that blocking high to make it grow hot here.

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Hey Ian,

To be honest I think this could go either way. While the GFS and ECM coontinue to look so good we should just file the longer range stuff as "interesting, but highly uncertain."

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I remember that summer very well. I wasn't very old at the time - but it really stood out from all other weather events I remember.

I was reading a detailed assessment of it about 2 years when it quoted that the summer of 1976, " was one of the two most outstanding weather events of the whole of the 20th Century. The other one was the winter of 1963".

That's how much the summer of 1976 is perceived.

 

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Local radio in London and elsewhere implied cloudy and potentially rainy conditions into the evening for the London area. Currently wall to wall sunshine and 24 degrees here in Fulham and perfect summer weather. I begin to wonder if the forecasted cool and cloudy weekend with max 18 degrees on the BBC Waeather site for London will materialise. They always downplay the temperatures and so often we land up with better weather than forecasted.

I never remember 1976 not so much for the heat as the drought - govt adverts to "share a bath" etc  (a common theme of carnival floats that year), parched parks and playing fields and going crazy in class one day because we heard thunder and there was a few spots of rain ...  (I was only 10)


Edit: oh and because when we went on holiday to the Isle of Wight at the end of August it rained .......  as it always did on holiday in the 70s

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Edit; 80s, 90s, 00's and counting.

It seems that the models are taking it in turns to hold the 'more trough development into Scandi' batton...

Tonight it's GFS having a go, while the other models are more restrained - even GEM, though not by much.

UKMO continues to show nothing much travelling over our high and hence the Scandi trough has little to do with the UK.

ECM does have the feature, like GFS and GEM, and follows the latter quite closely.

 

Not only does GFS have the more marked Scandi trough, it has a stalled low in the W. Atlantic, a feature that has support from JMA but not the other models. ECM and GEM have quite an active Atlantic westerly developing well upstream of the UK, which acts to push a ridge of high pressure across us, although GEM then flattens it right down into Europe.

 

GFS gets that eastward push from day 8, and JMA is starting to move lower heights into Greenland on day 8 (though it's subtle!), so it seems the tide is still in favour of the ridge moving away from W/NW of the UK at some point in the next fortnight... but I do say 'at some point' as, with the output as it stands, there is little reason to be at all sure about the timing of events  next week.

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Pattern matching for a laugh always appeals, and is always wrong. But for what it's worth, to me this feels most like early summer 2003 so far. Very hot weather to our South in France and Germany, generally warm here but nothing remarkable, and occasional break outs of high pressure over the UK.

After breakdowns, pressure is building from the South rather than the North or East, and the Greenland High is struggling to take hold (good).

France so far this month has been largely dry and very warm indeed, especially in the East and into SW Germany. Just like 2003.

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Cheers Tim - Now that is a post I really like.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY JUNE 14TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure lies close to Western Scotland and Northern Ireland with a NNE flow across Eastern and Southern Britain.

GFS The GFS Ensembles today are showing High pressure dominant out to the West and NW of the UK over the coming week with a lot of fine weather around the UK with a light cooling Northerly drift especially across the East. There are then indications of a declining of the High from next weekend with the chance of more unsettled and changeable weather developing from the SW eventually, though this is late in the less reliable part of the run.

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure covering a large part of the North Atlantic immediately West of the British Isles with a strong ridge across Britain. Dry and fine weather would predominate with variable cloud, moderately warm weather especially in the South and SW.

GEM The GEM operational today pulls High pressure away out into the Atlantic Ocean later this week and while a ridge is maintained across the UK with plenty of fine and dry weather for all some troughing is eventually allowed to invade UK airspace from the NW as the High in the Atlantic sinks further South towards the Azores.

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds High pressure close to Western Ireland or thereabouts throughout it's run this morning maintaining a feed of light Northerly winds on the Eastern flank of the High. Variable cloud cover and some warm sunshine would be the most likely weather across the UK from this setup.

ECM The ECM operational today also joins the trend of a declining High pressure area late in it's run today although the ensembles need to be viewed later to indicate this as a sign of a trend. In the meantime it's proximitty to Western Ireland maintains a week or so yet of fine and dry weather with variable cloud and moderately warm weather before indications of it declining away SW are growing with the chance of showers also growing ahead of a collapsing ridge SE across the UK by Day 10 and possibly opening the door to the Atlantic beyond the term of the run.

MY THOUGHTS  High pressure still features strongly in this morning's output although not quite as wholeheartedly as recent runs. The centre of High pressure continues to be placed in a position just West of the UK with a light Northerly feed capping any real chance of any significantly high temperatures but giving rise to pleasantly warm conditions through variable cloud cover and sunny intervals. There is though a stronger theme this morning between the output that High pressure may recede away from the UK in Week 2 though models showing this theme differ somewhat in the way this is achieved and as a result should only be viewed with open scepticism at this range until all the ensemble data is correlated into the calcualtions later. In the meantime we can all enjoy plenty of dry and fine weather with very comfortable conditions away from North sea coasts where it may feel a little chilly at times.

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Thank you Martin..  A good output with warmth..  May well change around the 23rd   for Wimbledon.....

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Still very good output today although the ECM 12Z scorcher seems off the cards. What is it with that model and it's ghost cold spells in winter and hot spells in summer? I have learnt now to ignore its wild swings.

As usual the MetO offers the most realistic outcome with high pressure over Ireland and the best weather in the south west. The SE could be the coolest part of the Country next week but having spent Thursday being boiled alive on the Tube I am hoping my visit to the Capital next Wednesday is under somewhat cooler conditions, why can't one of the riches nations on earth afford air conditioning on its Capitals transport system!

My sympathy goes out to all you Londoners that use the Tube regularly in summer, it's bloody awful.

Andy

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