http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif

GEM may have the right solution....here's hoping

That looks good.

Thank you Martin for your output..     A speedy recovery is well wished for with the weather...

Fits well with the GFS output for Wednesday and Thursday, then on Friday it depends how far SE you look if going by the 12z. The 00z was widely in the mid-20's, though.

With UKMO now quite close to GFS and GFS having adjusted a bit towards what UKMO was showing, there's now more of a consensus on a very warm Wednesday and Thursday across much of England and Wales, followed by a change to cooler conditions advancing SE on Friday but perhaps taking until some time Saturday to reach the far SE.

The main brunt of the Atlantic storm looks to spare much of the UK now, and we could even see reasonable temperatures returning Sunday if GFS is to be believed.

After that, it all depends on the timing of the Atlantic storms. As soon as one 'peaks' near Greenland, a strong ridge from the Azores is likely to build through the UK. Until then, low pressure systems could slide SE into the North Sea, which is unfortunately what the GFS 12z op run comes up with with system number two. The third one then performs nicely for us, and by the end of the run the pattern is superb for an extended spell of fine and increasingly warm/hot weather - but that's way outside the reliable.

The way the broad-scale pattern is setting up in terms of the heights in the high latitudes is encouraging, though - trough activity across the eastern half of the U.S. pushes into Greenland and is forced to set up shop there as blocking builds from Svalbard to Siberia. With this in mind, the sliding low option seems a rather unlucky one, but you know how it is! 

To avoid the sliding low, it would help immensely if the blocking high was more of a Svalbard-Scandinavia feature... not entirely out of the question, so I'm choosing to be cautiously optimistic 

ECM shows us that the Atlantic storm could still be located further west by Friday than has been shown of late by most models.

That appears to result in the widespread mid-20's across England and Wales on Friday that GFS had this morning (based on like for like comparison).

The Atlantic also behaves more favourably for that ridge to affect the UK days 7-10, though not without a glancing blow as LP passes to the N on the Monday.

Interesting to see the first hurricane of the season being predicted by ECM tonight, running up not far off the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. and then transitioning to a powerful extratropical storm in the mid-Atlantic by day 10. The position works out nicely for the UK, boosting that ridge from the Azores further across.

Time for the evening's entertainment: what happens if the jet is too slow to throw all the energy into the one system?

GFS explored this on the 00z op run today, and now NAVGEM is taking it even further on it's 12z op run:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014062912/navgem-0-120.png?29-18

There's the energy being distributed into two seperate troughs rather than one strong system.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014062912/navgem-0-156.png?29-18

Here's the troughs only managing to meet once the first of them has peaked and started to dissipate.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014062912/navgem-0-180.png?29-18

The momentum of the second trough throws the combined system to the NE and the UK escapes with only a very faint trough sliding south to worry about!

A remarkable option to have on the table, but sadly, not the form horse.

Even so, things could get interesting if the trend between ECM runs - to tone down the jet - continues. It's not uncommon for what was supposed to be a single mighty storm system to end up being a flabby mess with two or more systems trying to dominate.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY JUNE 30TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A depression will move slowly SE across the Bay of Biscay with a ridge of High pressure developing across the UK through the next 24 hours.

HEADLINE  Some rain at the weekend but then becoming more settled, dry and warm for most.

GFS The GFS operational today shows the main feature of the weather still the Azores High. The ridge from it this week will give way to Low pressure close to Northern Scotland late this week and over the weekend with  spells of rain and showers for all for a time Through next week and the rest of the run further incursions of showery Low pressure is shown but the ridge from the Azores remains a dominant feature with plenty of dry weather as a result. The Ensembles go further bringing the High close to Western Ireland and giving most of the UK a warm and settled spell of often sunny weather after the interlude of rain and showers at the end of this week and the coming weekend.

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure to the North of the UK with showers and outbreaks of rain from Friday and Saturday continuing across the UK to end the weekend.

GEM The GEM operational today is rather less supportive of a quick improvement next week as the Low pressure scheduled for the weekend is slower to move away next week with the developing ridge more restrictive to Southern Britain while the far North maintains an Atlantic Westerly flow with occasional rain.

NAVGEM NAVGEM goes somewhat the other way in indicating a slightly less spread of influence of next weekends Low pressure with the emphasis of rain and showers more likely towards the North before a showery trough crosses South over the UK early next week followed by a strong rise of pressure from a ridge to the NW at the end of the run and the middle of next week.

ECM The ECM operational today is also showing next weekend as unsettled and breezy with rain at times in association wth Low pressure to the North of the UK. Next week then shows a strong build of pressure from a strong Azores ridge building across England and Wales and bringing warm and sunny conditions with it. Only the far North is shown to keep something of a Westerly flow with a little rain at the end of the run.

MY THOUGHTS  The end of the week and the weekend still look quite unsettled across the UK from all the models this morning. Low pressure is then shown to move away North as pressure builds from the SW under a strong ridge from the Azores High. The axis and positioning of this ridge is the only thing that separates the output spread this morning with the South more or less guaranteed that it at least will become sunny and warm by the middle of next week and beyond. The North too has a reasonable chance of sharing in some of these conditions but there are a handful of runs which show that the extent of the ridge may be held further South to permit a Westerly flow and occasional rain to reach the far North at times while on the other hand runs like NAVGEM show the ridge further NW with the resultant dry weather eventually affecting all. My own view is that the UK could be on the verge of a fine and very warm spell of weather from the middle of next week with only the far NW rather less settled at times. It is often extensions of the Azores High in Summer that can give the UK it's warmest and most prolonged spells of summer weather and things seem to be setting up quite nicely for that to at least have a good chance of evolving in the next 10-14 days after this weekends hiatus.

With charts like this recurring for the second week of July, I agree:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

IIRC it was a cell of HP moving N/NE from the Azores that led to last July's fortnight long heatwave; would be great to get something along those lines again this summer.

Looking forward to tomorrrows review.

The Met/o 12z is rather unsettled;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

As is the ECM 12z so far;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

GFS 12z isn't far off either until FI that is.

The London area getting as high as 25C by this Thursday.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014063012/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?30-19

Yes those charts aren't too alarming. It's what happens after that that gives us a clearer direction to how July will shape up.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY JULY 1ST 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A depression will move away slowly SE into Southern France today with a ridge of High pressure slipping slowly South over the UK.

HEADLINE  Some rain at the weekend. Perhaps somewhat drier later next week especially towards the SW.

GFS The GFS operational today Low pressure close to or over the UK at the weekend gradually weakening and moving away North later next week. The rest of the run then shows an Azores High occasionally ridging towards the UK with occasional interruptions from Low pressure creeping down from the North. As a result the rain and showers of early next week will slowly lessen to drier and brighter weather with some sunshine with frther interventions from shower Low pressure at times afterwards with the greatest risk of this towards the North and East. The Ensemble data today endorses this overall picture too with temperatures close to and occasionally above average.

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure to the North of the UK at the end of the weekend lasting into the start of next week. As a result the weather will be unsettled with rain and showers on a cool and blustery West wind well into next week.

GEM The GEM operational today is rather poor compared to recent runs with this morning's effort illustrating a much more stubborn and slow moving Low pressure at the weekend lasting well into next week with fresh winds early next week dying down as isobars open out but pressure remains relatively low and slack with showers continuing for many out towards the end of the run.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is equally poor this morning with Low pressure becoming slow moving while filling slowly early next week. An unsettled, cooler and breezy weekend for all would be followed by further showery oubtreaks well into next week in lighter cyclonic winds by then.

ECM The ECM operational today completes a disappointing set with much less resilience to Low pressure as the Azores High is less influential following the weekends unsettled and breezy phase. The Low pressure bringing this weather doesn't cleanly clear away leaving a legacy of West and NW winds with occasional showery troughs enhancing the risk of showers at times almost anywhere in temperatures close to average for most.

MY THOUGHTS  My thoughts this morning have to hinge on much less optimism I'm afraid than yesterday as this morning's charts from all output fail to develop High pressure down to the SW towards Britain as much next week with Low pressure remaining in some form or another close enough to the UK to maintain an Atlantic feed of winds and carry the risk of showers at times to most if not all areas. If anyone area remains more at risk from rain at times it will be the North and East of the UK with a fair amount of dry and bright weather at times in the South and West. With an Atlantic feed of winds temperatures will be close to average with rather cool conditions in the North while SE areas could see some warmer days mixed in. It is a shame that the models have decided to dilute the chance of the Azores High moving strongly towards or even over Britain that they had shown as a growing theme over the last few days with the main reason being a stronger risk of pressure remaining High over Northern latitudes aiding the pull of Low pressure further South and East to the North and NE of the UK, a pattern that has been quite repetitive so far this Summer. Nevertheless, nowhere looks like being particularly wet and there will be a fair amount of dry, bright and very useable weather for most outdoor pursuits between the showers.

Oh god thats not what i wanted to read , these models take the wee wee out of us(especially the tease ECM) , always for the worst in this cesspit country . so much for the EC32 dayer nonsence , im inclined to nuke that tripe

Emmigrate?

On topic - like so many winter scenarios there will be chopping and changing in the forecasts for after the weekend disruption. I wouldn't right off the potential for the Azores high to build in just yet.

Some splendid summer weather for many Brits over the next 4 days, typified by this chart:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn605.gif

 a breakdown for the weekend and Monday with a rapid rise in pressure on Tuesday from the SW as the Azores High muscles in.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif

Heres the SLP and temp profile ens. from the GFS 0z suite:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

5th - 9th looks like the period to get through before the dry and settled weather can hopefully re-establish.

Worth remembering that these wetter interludes in what is shaping up to be a very respectable summer (check out the June stats) is what prevents hosepipe bans, fires and dust and keeps our land green and pleasant.

WI

I said a couple of days ago there was nothing to get excited about and I still stand by that.

All looking rather average to me with some warmer, drier days, cooler days and some wetter days between.

Your average British summer I guess.

Well Above average so far: (June)

  Met office Hadley  15.5c.  Anomaly  1.4c.  Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck        15.28c.      Anomaly       1.14c.

N-W               15.97c.      Anomaly       1.88c

Mount Sorrel    15.83c.     Anomaly       1.73c.

My Mean          17.3c.       Anomaly       2.1c. (ArtzeMan)

If you are referring to the future weather then all we can say with any certainty is today - Friday looking warmer and sunny and dry for many.  Saturday to Monday look cooler windier wetter; beyond that the weather should settle down from the SW.

WI