Well it has in fact been a slightly cooler than average start to July. As ever the Hadley provisional figures are way too high. As of the 11th my mean was only 15.99C compared to the Hadley figure of 16.43C so quite a difference.
Yesterday's warm weather bumped up the CET significantly. Today will be another warm day particularly due to the very high minimums this morning. Tomorrow looks cooler but then we can expect the warmest spell of the year so far with the CET likely to exceed 20C on both Thursday and Friday. Even after the breakdown next weekend the CET should remain slightly above average with the mean for the month levelling off at that point.
So by the 26th I currently expect the CET to be around 17.2C which is much cooler than this time last year but still would at that point be more than 0.8C above the 1971-2000 mean. So after a fairly average start to the month we are looking at another significantly above average month by the time we get to the end.
If the July CET does finish around 17.2C then 2014 will comfortably have the warmest first seven months of the year on record. The warmest first seven months of the year in the CET series are:
2014 10.66C (prov.)
1846 10.55C
2007 10.52C
1990 10.50C
1733 10.50C
1868 10.43C
The way things are going at the moment there has to be a very good chance of seeing the first ever 11+C CET mean this year.
Originally Posted by: Global Warming