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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 August 2014 21:13:13

We can't possibly forecast that far ahead and we even struggle to get it right beyond five days.  However, my gut feeling is that we're in another run of mild winters.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Russwirral
22 August 2014 09:18:36

Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


Not too sure about shortlived.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzeZJUsT0UU  was a great event in the way it developed IMBY.  Though it didnt deliver huge amounts, it was just nice the way it caught me a bit by surprise.


 


I had spent the night out in manchester on the Saturday - knowing there was snow on the way for ~Tuesday.  Infact the snow showers arrived on the Sunday morning ~11am.  Took me totally by surprise.  Very dry ground let to a lovely dusting.  The snow was on and off for about 24 hrs.


 


 


Russwirral
22 August 2014 10:16:57
@ Gavin P

Just looking at your pre winter forecast using the Beijing model. the anommally you were looking at for 2014-15 looks alot more like the annomally we saw for last winter rather than a cold one. With LP heading out of the eastern seaboard and darting to the UK. Though like last year - could end up being another stella year for the scottish snow resorts.


Russwirral
22 August 2014 10:35:11

Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


Jan through to late march 2013 produced the best Scandi high winter in a long time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xmt1qgIQ24  was one such event, which if i recall correctly landed in the uk every Friday for about 6-7 weeks.


 


LPS were forced up and over, with slider break off lows interacting with the Scandi high and darting off to the Med.  Wales had 50cm of snowfall from one such event around the 21st March.


At one point I remember snowfalling every day for about 8 days on the wirral.  something which i dont recall happening before. 


 


 


 


 


Gavin P
22 August 2014 13:56:10

@ Gavin P Just looking at your pre winter forecast using the Beijing model. the anommally you were looking at for 2014-15 looks alot more like the annomally we saw for last winter rather than a cold one. With LP heading out of the eastern seaboard and darting to the UK. Though like last year - could end up being another stella year for the scottish snow resorts.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


2014/2015 predicted anomaly is more like 2012/2013 than 2013/2014, I think.


Though keep in mind it's hadn't got the correct anomaly for 2013/2014 at this time.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
KevBrads1
22 August 2014 14:36:51

Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Jan through to late march 2013produced the best Scandi high winter in a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xmt1qgIQ24  was one such event, which if i recall correctly landed in the uk every Friday for about 6-7 weeks.

LPS were forced up and over, with slider break off lows interacting with the Scandi high and darting off to the Med. Wales had 50cm of snowfall from one such event around the 21st March.
At one point I remember snowfalling every day for about 8 days on the wirral. something which i dont recall happening before.



Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



Yes but what I meaning is this type. Not had a decent one in the heart of winter for some time.




MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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22 August 2014 14:56:40


Matty H came up with the best reply to this thread, "utterly pointless". Why start a thread about winter on 13th August? Oh I forgot, Sriram started it. 


 


Originally Posted by: bradders 


 


Perhaps because whether Matty H likes it or not winter is going to come and as such it is as valid a topic for discussion as any other on this forum.

manofllan
22 August 2014 15:06:27



Matty H came up with the best reply to this thread, "utterly pointless". Why start a thread about winter on 13th August? Oh I forgot, Sriram started it. 


 


Originally Posted by: blizzard of 78 


 


Perhaps because whether Matty H likes it or not winter is going to come and as such it is as valid a topic for discussion as any other on this forum.


Originally Posted by: bradders 


Indeed. And why not talk about winter?  After all, summer appears to be over...     

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
23 August 2014 07:04:09

 





My winter forecast will be guaranteeing that large parts of southern England do NOT see less snow than last winter. It's not often possible to offer such certainty in long range forecasting. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


i'd have thought that was a given as it's impossible to see less snow than last winters no snow


Originally Posted by: Jayni C 


Yes that was wht I meant.  Not one flake of snow fell here last winter.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


I will wait for The Sun, Daily Mirror etc to issue theoir forecast and then I will assume the opposite.


 


I have 90%+ chance of getting it correct. I cannot remeber last time teh formular failed. Not very scientific but very accurate which works for me!


Kingston Upon Thames
Brendon Hills Bandit
23 August 2014 20:20:04

Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



Jan through to late march 2013produced the best Scandi high winter in a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xmt1qgIQ24 was one such event, which if i recall correctly landed in the uk every Friday for about 6-7 weeks.

LPS were forced up and over, with slider break off lows interacting with the Scandi high and darting off to the Med. Wales had 50cm of snowfall from one such event around the 21st March.
At one point I remember snowfalling every day for about 8 days on the wirral. something which i dont recall happening before.



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Yes but what I meaning is this type. Not had a decent one in the heart of winter for some time.



Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


Having been lurking and occasionally posting on this forum for some years, I have noticed a tendency for forum members to see the Scandi High type cold spell as being 'the bees knees'. Not being an expert in weather science, I have always wondered why. How is an easterly better than a northerly (Greenland/iceland high) ? Greater chance of really low temps, snowfall?


220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
Russwirral
24 August 2014 10:11:42


Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season. Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit 



Jan through to late march 2013produced the best Scandi high winter in a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xmt1qgIQ24 was one such event, which if i recall correctly landed in the uk every Friday for about 6-7 weeks.

LPS were forced up and over, with slider break off lows interacting with the Scandi high and darting off to the Med. Wales had 50cm of snowfall from one such event around the 21st March.
At one point I remember snowfalling every day for about 8 days on the wirral. something which i dont recall happening before.



Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 



Yes but what I meaning is this type. Not had a decent one in the heart of winter for some time.



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Having been lurking and occasionally posting on this forum for some years, I have noticed a tendency for forum members to see the Scandi High type cold spell as being 'the bees knees'. Not being an expert in weather science, I have always wondered why. How is an easterly better than a northerly (Greenland/iceland high) ? Greater chance of really low temps, snowfall?


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


Scandi highs tend to bring us easterly or north easterly winds - in some unlucky periods they can stretch out to central eurpe and suck in milder southerly winds.


They also have less chance of Modiffication from the sea.  Northerly's also tend to be shortlived.  Addtionaly Northly showers tend to only effect a very fine strip of land of eastern UK.  and the north wales coast.  In an easterly More or less all of the UK can get snow, though west of the pennines tend to get less.


Plus - in early winter when the North sea is "warmer" it can often tend to improve shower formation similar to lake effect snow.  So anyone on the eastern side of britain buzzes of this for a period of November through to early Jan before the sea chills down, leading to a smaller temp differeence and so the effect is less powerful.  Still - Cold air from the east will always boss all of the other cold sources IMO.  Often we tend to get LP over Central and southern europe which allows fronts to move in laden with Med moist air.


 Scandi Highs tend to act as a blocking high aswell, and can be quite stubborn to move.  In some cases the cold gets washed away before the high re-asserts itself and we get the cold back.  Reloading the cold so to speak.


 


 


Brendon Hills Bandit
24 August 2014 11:31:46
Thanks for the reply, now I understand it better!
220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
Solar Cycles
24 August 2014 12:04:39
This is all about where you reside, for me you can't beat a Greeny high as that always guarantees the white stuff IMBY. You can keep your Scandinavia highs as 9/10 they fail to deliver for the majority of us.
Russwirral
24 August 2014 12:08:53

This is all about where you reside, for me you can't beat a Greeny high as that always guarantees the white stuff IMBY. You can keep your Scandinavia highs as 9/10 they fail to deliver for the majority of us.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


Only on the first few days before the winds turn NE - and then you can say good bye to any snow in Northwest england apart from the odd weakening front, or passing cloud.  


 


Better chance of stalling fronts etc when the HP is positioned more to the east.  


 


In my experience they both go hand in hand though, and often start as a Scandi HP moving to Greenland or vice versa.


 


 


Medlock Vale Weather
24 August 2014 17:24:33

I notice some people over on Netweather feeling very upbeat about the possibility of snow in Siberia - they had a great early season last Autumn (probably the best early snow cover in about 10 years) and what was it's impact on the UK the following Winter??!!


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Matty H
24 August 2014 17:43:02
There have been countless "this is brilliant news for UK snow" messages on here over the years. Correlation is tenuous at best.
Solar Cycles
24 August 2014 17:57:23

There have been countless "this is brilliant news for UK snow" messages on here over the years. Correlation is tenuous at best.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



There is no correlation that's the point as we are no nearer to producing an accurate seasonal forecast now than we were 50 years ago.
Matty H
24 August 2014 18:01:05

There have been countless "this is brilliant news for UK snow" messages on here over the years. Correlation is tenuous at best.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 



There is no correlation that's the point as we are no nearer to producing an accurate seasonal forecast now than we were 50 years ago.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Agree entirely. It's quite possible we will never be able to forecast seasons with any degree of accuracy whatsoever. There are so many variables.

It's possible this may have an influence, but it won't have an influence on it's own, and as things currently stand no one has a clue what the influence may be.
Gooner
24 August 2014 19:20:03

There have been countless "this is brilliant news for UK snow" messages on here over the years. Correlation is tenuous at best.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


There has....and on most occasions I end up disappointed


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hungry Tiger
24 August 2014 19:50:00


According to the non-solar SLATless antipodean forecasting system:-


Very mild start.   December may well be snow and frost free in most parts.    Ski resorts worried.   Year ends warmest on record.

However a spell of quite cold and snowy weather setting in around end of Jan or first half of Feb 2015 - which could even produce some record lows in one of two spots and/or significant snow falls in places that rarely see much snow.

Overall though, a milder than average winter - despite the late cold snap.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Sounds very realistic to me. Also I think that would please most people as well.


With heating bills at the rate they are now - Most right minded people are in no hurry for a 2010 type of cold spell.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hade Edge Snowman
24 August 2014 20:02:07

This is all about where you reside, for me you can't beat a Greeny high as that always guarantees the white stuff IMBY. You can keep your Scandinavia highs as 9/10 they fail to deliver for the majority of us.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


You've hit the nail on the head there SC.


 


Scandy highs deliver big time IMBY


Hade Edge Snowman
West Yorkshire
1060 feet/323 metres ASL
Chiltern Blizzard
24 August 2014 20:05:59



According to the non-solar SLATless antipodean forecasting system:-


Very mild start.   December may well be snow and frost free in most parts.    Ski resorts worried.   Year ends warmest on record.

However a spell of quite cold and snowy weather setting in around end of Jan or first half of Feb 2015 - which could even produce some record lows in one of two spots and/or significant snow falls in places that rarely see much snow.

Overall though, a milder than average winter - despite the late cold snap.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Sounds very realistic to me. Also I think that would please most people as well.


With heating bills at the rate they are now - Most right minded people are in no hurry for a 2010 type of cold spell.


 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Realistic perhaps, but with the start of winter over three months away, this is surely as 'realistic' as a virtually limitless range of potential winter scenarios.... 


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Hungry Tiger
24 August 2014 20:15:37




According to the non-solar SLATless antipodean forecasting system:-


Very mild start.   December may well be snow and frost free in most parts.    Ski resorts worried.   Year ends warmest on record.

However a spell of quite cold and snowy weather setting in around end of Jan or first half of Feb 2015 - which could even produce some record lows in one of two spots and/or significant snow falls in places that rarely see much snow.

Overall though, a milder than average winter - despite the late cold snap.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Sounds very realistic to me. Also I think that would please most people as well.


With heating bills at the rate they are now - Most right minded people are in no hurry for a 2010 type of cold spell.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Realistic perhaps, but with the start of winter over three months away, this is surely as 'realistic' as a virtually limitless range of potential winter scenarios.... 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


To be perfectly frank - you can never tell what winter is going to be like here at all.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Medlock Vale Weather
24 August 2014 20:31:40

This is all about where you reside, for me you can't beat a Greeny high as that always guarantees the white stuff IMBY. You can keep your Scandinavia highs as 9/10 they fail to deliver for the majority of us.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


In my locale we can be nicely effected by both pressure systems as I am near the border of east and west. So I'm not fussed what we get as long as it's better than last Winter.


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Solar Cycles
24 August 2014 21:06:25

This is all about where you reside, for me you can't beat a Greeny high as that always guarantees the white stuff IMBY. You can keep your Scandinavia highs as 9/10 they fail to deliver for the majority of us.

Originally Posted by: Medlock Vale Weather 


In my locale we can be nicely effected by both pressure systems as I am near the border of east and west. So I'm not fussed what we get as long as it's better than last Winter.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 



Agreed, bloody Oldham gets the best of both worlds. Those extra few miles inland and being surrounded by the Pennines makes all the difference.

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