Hi folks. Here is todays review of the 00z outputs this morning.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Looks decent next week for many of us, temperatures a little uncertain but maximums in the range of high teens to low 20's generally.

ECM and UKMO develop a notable LP to the SW of the UK which ECM then takes slowly NE, resulting in several days of long fetch southerly winds - that would be warm indeed at the surface, perhaps mid-20's in the south.

GFS has the system heading NE faster without much development at all, crossing the SE as a slack area of LP. Behind it a ridge attempts to build from the SW, but the lower-res charts (beyond +192 hours) are too flat with the jet stream to allow that ridge to be sustained in the face of strong Atlantic storms.

At this early stage, I get the impression that a ridge of some form will tend to hang on toward the SE through mid-month, with a changeable westerly regime for most, and more along the lines of unsettled for the NW.

Hi all,

Here's today's video uodate:

JMA Friday + Huug Van Den Dool Winter Update

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Still looks like September should see a breakdown to cooler/unsettled weather in second half.

ECM and UKMO develop a notable LP to the SW of the UK which ECM then takes slowly NE, resulting in several days of long fetch southerly winds - that would be warm indeed at the surface, perhaps mid-20's in the south.

I'm not really sure where that low pressure comes from. At 72 hrs it all looks benign to the south west to me:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Yet just 3 days later the low presuure you mentioned has popped up as if from nowhere::

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

It's fair to say the models understand the physics a lot better than I do, but I would still be a bit surprised if that warm air does get drawn up from the south in this manner next week.

Fine weather is a given for many over the coming week or so but how do the models look for the longer term. I attempt to decipher their 00z outputs here in my daily analysis.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Just to complete the analysis the ECM Ensemble pack follow the trend of a gentle fall of pressure from the SW leading to the most likely outcome of a trough somewhere just to the SW or west of the UK at Day 10. Nothing alarmist though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

some nice warm weather to come from the likes of that.

There has been strong support for a change during the second half of Septmeber. This HP is too little, too late in my opinion. Would have been more useful during August 

Plus the Autumnal Equinox is looming, let's bring in Autumn 

Quite right. And if last winter is anything to go by it wont relent until about March 2015!

JMA shows a predominantly benign outlook with high pressure near or over us for the foreseeable, very little rain for most of us too towards and up to mid month.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014090612/J144-21.GIF?06-12

Seems typical for September. A month which I class as the most 'boring' for UK weather. 

Some very decent cold building over Greenland at the end of JMA's run  whilst most of the UK still basks in relatively warmish air.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014090612/J192-7.GIF?06-12

JMA doesn't handle the Greenland 850's well I'm afraid - there's a cold bias for some reason or another. It sometimes causes errors in the synoptic charts too, as an excessive thermal gradient causes sudden or enhanced storm development.

Anyway, it seems clear that there will be a marked LP to the SW of the UK next week, and a ridge of some form across us, but with no firm idea as to how that ridge aligns itself and hence what surface cloud amounts and temperatures we experience.

Curiously, while the majority of the models are persistent in modelling a 'dartboard low' to the SW, GFS keeps on coming up with elongated troughs. On the 12z run, the elongation occurs as a result of a second LP system interacting with the one to our SW, and happens to produce a trough elongated north to south, which pulls hot air up from a long way south days 9-11, producing a run of days hitting the mid-20's in England.

This favourable alignment is absent from the other model runs so is considered a wildcard at this time - but the behaviour of that second LP system, present on the ECM and GEM runs as well as GFS, needs to be watched in case it does have more of an impact on the trough to the SW. As far as I can tell, it's the same weak storm system that's been bringing excessive rain N/NE of Florida today, and has the potential to be warm-core in nature (i.e. a tropical cyclone, albiet a weak one) if it tracks over the nearshore waters along the East US Coast in the near future.

That makes it a highly uncertain feature and, for me, the one source of much interest in next week's model output 

If it behaves like Autumn should, that is by getting steadily cooler and more autumnal as we go along, then that WILL make it a classic month in my book!! The Septembers which don't are the ones which don't get cooler, as that's what they're meant to do!

Good morning folks. My Sunday extended thoughts on this morning's output can be found on my website here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Agreed it was and never had a September HP days being overcast and well polluted.  It was very polluted in the last few days as if we are in Beiling and again this morning.  If was clouds they would burn off and join the rest of others areas that are enjoying clear skies and no pollution.

Not interested in this week HP dominated charts if they are going to bring more pollution days.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/archives/2014090712/UN144-21.GIF

It looks like a strong trough complex will establish over Greenland during the coming week, and aligned in the right way to keep the jet on a SW-NE track that passes well north of the UK.

With an unusually persistent cut-off low to the SW coinciding, a decent ridge across the UK looks to be maintained for the forseeable. At times some decent warmth looks to be transported across Europe towards our shores, which - provided there is a fair amount of sunshine to be had - appears likely to bring low-20's temps widely, approaching mid-20's in favourable spots.

The main enemy does look to be low cloud again, as there isn't much in the way of incoming frontal cloud in evidence on satellite imagery, away from the far NE. We could do with a good import of clear, dry air, but that'll take a bit of luck with the air mass origin.

GFS seems to be seeing a fair amount of sun throughout its 12z op run, but the model didn't see so many issues with low cloud Wed-Fri last week until the last minute, so nothing to count on I'm afraid.

As it is, the run shows sustained warmth right out to day 16 and would leave the CET in an impressive position baring in mind how much it usually falls as the month progresses.

Maybe that's something that doesn't often happen with our climate, but it still "should" happen if the 4 seasons are to steadily wax and wane, it should get cooler as its heading towards Autumn/Winter! May, on the other hand, should get warmer... (thankfully it usually does)! I jut like all the seasons to do what they're meant to do 

Well I hope we don't get that pollution we got earlier this year Jiries, that was terrible