Hi folks. Couldn't make a report last night so sorry for that but I have managed one tonight on my website. Should be back to normal tomorrow.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Back to normal this morning so here is my more in depth Sunday view of the model output using data from the 00z outputs of Sunday Sept 14th 2014.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

In a nutshell, after a very warm setup Tue-Fri with mid-20's maximums across an increasingly large portion of England and Wales, most models have HP extended west to east through the UK next weekend, keeping the UK with a fairly slack easterly flow and warm air in situ, maximum temperatures continuing in the mid-20's across much of England and Wales.

ECM is the odd one out, with a more amplified flow producing a northerly down through Scandinavia which then wraps into the UK around the SE flank of a HP cell passing over Scotland and then setting up very close to the NE for day 10. That means a marked cooldown in temperatures for many of us, but it's lacking in support as of this morning - just something to watch out for really, at least if you're planning a late-season BBQ or something, as it takes a very warm setup to bring warm evenings in the second half of September.

GFS and GEM continue the general output theme tonight; a HP cell across Scotland this weekend with the warm air lingering across the south, then that HP cell drifting to Scandi next week with another block possibly setting up there (never mind how GFS shoves it away).

UKMO... might have had an error in the data? It seems to be completely missing the ridge in the mid-Atlantic from the Azores to just west of Iceland on day 4, and day 5 sees a broad (and oddly slack) trough in a location where there should be a ridge according to all of the other models.

Either that, or the entire model suite has been incorrectly modelling the existence of that ridge, which seems rather unlikely given the 5-6 day range that its been at.

High Pressure dominates until the end of the month most likely.
Increasingly potent incursions of cold air into Scandiavia and Western Russia later.
All classic Autumnal fare, will soon get quite interesting as Eastern Europe chills down.

Yes that is seen on the Moscow 12z output.

-7 uppers towards the end of the month on GFS model

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Moskau_ens.png

Good morning folks. Back to normal this week. Here is this morning's deciphering attempt at the 00z outputs today.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

How much of a low pressure system will there be west of Iceland in 3 days time?

That is something the models are currently unable to agree upon!

This then impacts on the ridge through the UK, potentially getting in the way a bit and preventing the HP from extending east until 7-10 days time as opposed to during the weekend. If this happens, some cooler air is likely to get into the mix next week.

UKMO makes the most of the low, but transfers it quickly to Scandinavia by day 6, with the Atlantic ridge arriving fast, so the cooler air is mostly confined to the NE'rn third of the UK as it tracks SE.

GEM makes less of the low but shows a greater impact as it merges with the LP to the SW of the UK, which tracks NE in response. It then stalls out and slowly dissipates in the North Sea, but it's only a small feature, and a second small feature west of Ireland produces a contrasting air flow which leaves the UK under a modified version of the air mass from this week - so a bit cooler but not drastically so, perhaps close to average temperatures.

ECM and GFS both make very little of the low. The former is more amplified with the pattern so we still see a marked ridge in the Atlantic extending east and bringing some cooler air around the SE'rn flank, which the very weak low does help with a little.
The latter has the ridge extending nicely east with the LP staying to the north of it and not really interfering. This results in the warmest option, but as winds turn more easterly, temperatures fall towards average values, or a little above in the west.

It does seem that the massive Euro High that GFS kept suggesting at the longer range until yesterdays runs has been dropped in favour of yet another Scandi block holding its ground. Still worth watching what happens when the Atlantic finally squashes it south, though - could be a last hurrah for the temperatures before an autumnal regime sets in... however long that takes.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Hot Temperatures This Week + BCC Winter 14/15 Update

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Think Beijing update will be quite highly anticipated after last month.

After standing against it this morning, UKMO has now shifted to match GFS regarding the low west of Iceland in 3 days time, so it appears that we should see the very warm air hang on across England and Wales through the weekend 

It may then slowly ease away next week, but that remains open to speculation, as UKMO starts to push the HP towards the SE of the UK while GFS has it building NE instead.

GEM continues to have that low west of Iceland tracking SE and then quickly on into Europe, freshening the air across all but the SW, where the warm air remains in place thanks to a new ridge of high pressure arriving from the west before the fresher air has a chance to track that far along the NW flank of the low heading into Europe.

Currently GEM stands alone, but I do wonder if ECM will side with GFS and UKMO, as it tends to favour more amplified solutions such as GEM continues to show.

The thing is, this disagreement now lies within 2-3 days range, so if ECM's worth its money, bias should be low or non existent at such close timeframes - a few important charts coming 7-7:15pm today.

Hi folks. I see signs of a possible change in the longer term prospects this morning but it's a long way away yet. Here's my morning analysis.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Thursday looking toasty for some of us. 27C in a few spots 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091606/nmmuk-0-56-0.png?16-13

Looks like with the very warm weather thunderstorms may break out for some of the country. These are difficult to predict but some may happen on Thursday. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091612/nmmuk-1-57-0.png?16-19

And then into Friday, could be some torrential downpours http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091612/nmmuk-1-70-0.png?16-19

Could Autumn proper be just around the corner. In my Daily 15 Day model output analysis on todays 00zs I attempt to answer these questions.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

ECM looking very autumnal in fi.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

Just in time for the Ryder Cup

Atlantic Westerlies look the favoured option in 10 Days time from the ECM Ensembles this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Yep, I may have to rethink my on-course wardrobe options.

The BBC Week Ahead forecast last night was also hinting at a similar set-up, with the best of the weather down south, with Scotland having stronger winds and rain at times in a more Atlantic driven regime.

Will the high pressure build back in though.

That's a good point and one that I think the models will show at times over the coming days as the point of change draws nearer. I would think that for the South at least there is an evens chance of something along those lines happening.

28C in parts of the south east on Friday 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091712/nmmuk-0-50-0.png?17-19

The heat still hanging on across the south east into Saturday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014091712/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?17-19

The 12Z run of the ECMWF shows the +10 Isotherm moving away quite swiftly late Saturday into Sunday 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm482.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm722.gif

The models seem to have now settled down on the idea of the Atlantic having enough energy to flatten the persistent ridge over Scandinavia and relegate it to Europe. There has been a trend today toward a bit more in the way of high pressure hanging on close to the south of the UK, keeping the worst of the wind and rain away from that region. With a lot of tropical-maritime air in the mix, it looks like some classic (for southern England in autumn) blustery, muggy weather with relatively high overnight minimums but not a lot of gain during the daytime.

Once the storm that achieves this has moved into Scandi, attention then turns to the next one in line.

A number of days ago, GFS persistently showed this system peaking in the western Atlantic, which has the effect of amplifying the flow at just the right time to produce a strong ridge across Europe in the wake of the Scandi trough. GFS then dropped this in favour of the second storm powering on eastward, and kept that going for a few days of runs.

Today, though, the Euro ridge scenario has made a comeback, and ECM is also giving the idea some consideration.

It's something to keep a close eye on if you're a fan of a true 'Indian Summer', as I don't think you can really declare such a thing in September - though the exact defination has always been a little sketchy to be honest, and I've seen it defined as a warm spell following the first widespread frosts of the season, for example.