HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY OCTOBER 7TH 2014.
NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 8TH 08:00
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An unstable West or SW flow covers the UK with a deep Low approaching Western Britain tomorrow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly becoming dry and quieter across the UK later.
THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently lying across Northern France continues to be maintained to the South of the UK for the next 5-7 days. It then shows signs of disrupting somewhat and splitting with a Northern arm becoming the dominant part andheading to a position North of the UK in week 2 while a much weaker Southern arm lies across North Africa at the end of the run.
GFS The GFS operational today offers two distinctly different weeks of weather to come with week 1 dominated by a deep low moving slowly NE over Ireland over the next 48 hours to lie as a slow moving feature close to Northern Scotland and filling slowly by the coming weekend. Pressure then gently rises from the SE as a mild SW flow develops for a time with some more rain in the North and West. By midweek pressure has risen strongly everywhere with a large Autumn anticyclone lying over the UK later next week with fine days and mist and fog at night and morning for many. A SE flow then develops across the South to end the run but dry weather would probably prevail.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are very supportive of it's operational this morning even in the further reaches of the run with a large UK based High pressure returning fine conditions for all by midway through Week 2 possiby with extensive overnight and morning mists and fogs in the very light winds.
UKMO UKMO this morning shows our deep Low currently moving NE over the coming days over Ireland and Scotland to lie as a slow moving and filling feature near Northern Scotland at the start of next week. Winds will fall light but the weak Westerly airflow will remain unstable and very supportive of further heavy showers or outbreaks of rain in places across the UK.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show Low pressure to the West and SW with a complex array of troughs gradually transferring NE over the coming 4-5 days with the main centre lying close to the far North at the weekend as a much weaker feature as pressure rises slowly from the South.
GEM The GEM operational today is dismissive of the GFS sequence of events as it goes the other way next week in suggesting a gradual return to deep UK based Low pressure with wind, rain and showers in abundance for all after a brief lull at the weekend.
NAVGEM NAVGEM does look a little more like GFS as it shows a gentle rise of pressure from the South next week as deep Low pressure slips deeper into the Atlantic and lies further Wet away from us pushing a milder SW flow up across the UK next week with rain probably more rstricted towards the North and West with time as higher pressure lies to the SE.
ECM The ECM operational shows a more integrated push towards the UK of deep Atlantic Low pressure next week with a deep centre lying not far to the NW of Ireland by midweek next week with a strong SW flow carrying troughs NE across the UK with wind and rain for all in temperatures recovering somewhat from current levels.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS GFS and to a lesser degree NAVGEM have turned more towards High pressure based weather pattern commencing next week but as yet this is not supported by the other output.
MY THOUGHTS Some interesting switches in output this morning mostly from the American viewpoint as GFS has gone all out in switching from an unsettled and windy period next week to High pressure sat across the UK bringing fine and potentially foggy weather night and morning with quiet and bright days. It is well supported within it's own ensembles but less so from the other output. While the theory that leads to this happening is shown by other models too their thoughts gear towards the Atlantic being much stronger through week 2 than GFS shows with the net result that the milder and High pressure based surge shown is much more muted and while the South and East might benefit from less rain than elsewhere with warmer winds from the SW the North and West will probably see quite a bit of wind and rain as High pressure shown by most other European and the Canadian model output remains over the continental side of Europe. We must not discount the possibility of the output of GFS verifying especially since it has support from it's own ensemble pack but until this extends in a greater way to the other models it is subject to change over the coming runs and days. So my own thoughts this morning are to go with the majority this morning in saying that it looks like there will be more wind and rain next week following that of this week and although the emphasis of this will probably shift more towards the North and West if the GEM theory is right we will all be under attack from gales or in places severe gales and heavy rain later next week. However, I think that the ECM version this morning may be nearer the mark come the time.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset