Out of interest was 1994 mild because of persistent southerly winds rather than south westerly. I,e a block formed but encouraged subtropical air from north africa rather than beasterly air from siberia. Was 1994 cold for scandanavia/E europe?

I don't remember 1994 being mild - we had freezing fog all day for Christmas Eve and a snowfall in the evening on Boxing Day!

That would suit me fine this year too! 

Good morning. A new working week and rapidly darkening evenings and mornings confirm we are dipping deeper into Autumn now but has anyone told the models. Here is this morning's account of how I see them.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Excellent as always, looking at the way in which late summer/early autumn has been, you certainly wouldn't bet against the high ridging back in for a period towards the end of next week and month end.

Thank you Martin

Nearly half way through Autumn. Wonder if winter will go this quick too?

I cant't believe it's mid October already!!!

Feels like time has speeded up!

Without taking this thread off topic too much ( it is quiet in here though ) I agree, time is flying and I'm loving it. I usually hate this time of year as the nights draw in  and clocks changing the end of the month  etc but with small glimpses of low 20's possible for this weekend i think it's fantastic. 

Yes i do love snow and some cold temps BUT would happily take one week of proper winter and the rest of Autumn and Winter can be as mild as it wants ...aslong as it's not too wet 

Does anyone have a link to archives of old charts please so I can compare to the current ones? I think it was early 90s there was a very mild end to October into the start of November, I remember a mild bonfire night...off the cuff i think it was 1993 then by the end of November we had a decent cold blast.

EDIT: Found a link in the thread above, and can change the year/dates in the browser/url 🙂 will have a browse

P.S Thanks Gibby :)

ECM 12z looking warm but parentally very wet at times.

It's starting to look ripe for some unusually intense rainfall events next week as a succession of Atlantic disturbances engage with a plume of unusually warm, moist air across the UK. This occurs due to an unusually amplified jet stream pattern, which limits the ability of each individual disturbance to push away the warm, moist air mass.

The setup has trended towards something more extreme over the past few days, indeed it was only yesterday that the models had the Atlantic storms blasting NE without much hesitation.

Amplification also brings extreme conditions downstream of us, as HP is able to build across Scandinavia and work with a trough over western Asia to pull some very cold air for the time of year - in the range of minus 15*C to minus 18*C 850 hPa temperatures - down into the western reaches of the latter region.

That ought to have the snow cover across Asia making quite a big jump westward.

and that, SC, is what is grabbing my attention. In autumns past, we have seen pressure building to our ne (generally more Russian than scrussian) but there has been no cold air anywhere near. Now we see a chunk of vortex the other side of this building block and plenty of WAA being shoved into the arctic on our longitude.  of course, there is no likelihood of wintry conditions for Western Europe but at this time of year, we should be looking at how the building locks are being laid down for the months to come.

Both October 1992 & 1993 were unusually cold, I had a lot of frost in both years, most likely it was 1993 as there was a milder end, October 1992 had a cold end.

Personally I have seen these early embryonic symbols of Winter in Eastern Europe shown in many years past which have had no bearing on the increased coldness of Winter over the UK. As I have said before the main driving force to our weather is tha Azores High and if that's there at anytime through the Winter it matters not a jot on what's happening in Russia or elsewhere in a Eastern Europe. As a result of the Azores High being there the Jet Stream ( a semi, permanent ribbon of air moving West to East across the Northern hemisphere) will always bottle such cold air to Eastern Europe and even push it back at times.

That's not to say of course the UK won't have a cold Winter this year but it does indicate that the Jet Flow behaviour and synoptics to the West of the UK have far more bearing on UK weather at anytime of the year than anything happening a thousand miles or so to the East. In Winter we need a Jet flow exiting the States well South of normal and its continuation on this Southerly course over the Atlantic under the absence of the Azores High and the presence of Northern blocking. This would keep the UK on the cold side of the Jet Flow and encourage pressure to rise over Northern latitudes with relatively lower pressure over the UK possible within this setup increases our chances of snow significantly.

in my experiences of cold Easterly patterns born from Russia or Siberia they can be frustratingly dry and end up falling short on the incidence of the one thing many strive for in cold weather and that is snow. So imo they end up being not the be all and end all for UK Winter weather and it's often more local small scale synoptics that deliver the UK some of its best snow events.

For Winter 2014-15 its still very early to be even contemplating what Winter will be like even in Eastern Europe yet alone the UK but what I can say studying all the info and charts available to me daily at the moment there remains nothing shown to me that indicates the UK is going to suffer from cold weather anytime soon. In fact it all looks to the contrary with the more concerning parameter rearing it's ugly head being the large rainfall totals likey to amass across parts of the UK in the coming weeks as the Jet flow ratchets up with warm moist air over the UK and Low pressure coming together to deliver the potential for very wet and windy conditions at times for the coming 10-14 days at least.

Typical Autumn weather is the theme from the models this morning for the next few weeks. Here's my website interpretation of this today.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

...and the ECM 240hr Mean Chart supports the theme of Atlantic driven Westerlies on Day 10 well this morning

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Unsettled really bar the warm up for a few days with rain never far away.

Tis Quiet!

Good ain't it? Means there's no cold weather projected 

Pretty miserable outlook none-the-less. Mild though. 

Mild but wet is my pet hate tbh as it's pointless, prefer it to be cold & crisp without rain as can do more in the weather.

As most of you are aware, I do get nervous about this time of the year as the Atlantic is like a loaded gun what with the sharpening temperature gradient over the Northern Hemisphere, etc.

Good morning. The Atlantic loaded gun as mentioned above is likely to pull the trigger it seems next week. Here's this morning's report.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Thank you Martin for the output. No doubt the levels will Watch, Wait , Worry...  

At the moment the timing of ex-Gonzalo actually seems to do us a favour in terms of potential rainfall, because the jet gets the extra kick it needs to shove the warm, moist air aside early next week without much trouble. 

This means that while a heavy rain event is likely, it looks to be one swift event rather than multiple, slow moving events such as was looking possible based on model output a couple of days ago.

Having said all that, it does look like there will be a stalled front somewhere across the UK this weekend. A fairly narrow feature but one that keeps being reinforced by waves running along it - if it stays around the same region throughout as GFS shows on its 00z op run, weekend totals could be quite high along a thin band aligned N-S.

October is rapidly becoming my least favourite weather month, after the relentless wind & rain of 2013.. and now we seem to be experiencing a repeat run.