LOL Classic!

aye - im trying to find what hes referring to and when.  His screenshots must be of an internal Weatherbell form.  The ones on netweather point to a suttle warming over Alaska and East Russia.  But its very suttle, and i a different area to what ******i is reporting.

What do you make of that forecast!?

I, personally have never been a fan of weatheronline's long range forecasts as they are rarely right. Then again who's are? the weather makes fools out of us all from time to time.

Waste of time Tally

As soon as everyone acknowledges that pattern matching alone is bollox, the sooner we can all accept LRF forecasting is also bollox at this current time, and I'll sleep easier. 

People often talk about November 2010, but November 2005 was pretty good too, at least here......quite a few days of snow lying at the end of the month. 

Its been a while since Brian made a call for a mild winter at this stage !! Can anyone remember when the extreme cold events of 2009-10 started to develop on the charts as they are poor reading for coldies just now? Was it within 72hrs or was the potential there for weeks?

Scott

Penicuik 188 ASL

Pattern matching "alone" IS bollox. It's not at all an accurate way to forecast in solidarity. Having said that, even with other factors it can't really be called accurate, but that's the same as any other LRF. I accept that trend forecasting is far more likely to succeed than specific weather-type forecasting. Anyone who pins specific weather types to specific days months out is as big a muppet as those that bother to read it and then get excited if it shows their favourite weather

A LRF is really and only should be 7-10 days after that and you might as well get a 5 year old to write it IMO

I think we need to be patient too, Winter 2012-13 got off to a slow start with most places seeing no snow until mid January, most people in this forum were worried about it being a mostly snowless Winter. But it turned out to be a decent Winter and it lingered into the Spring. 

"So what about winter 2014/15?
I'd be very surprised if it's as mild and wet as last year's! That's not really saying much of course as 2013/14 was exceptional. At this stage of the autumn if I was forced to make a call I'd go for milder and wetter than average season"

Richard Desmond might have to call in an Administrator......... 

Blimey, very daring of you John 

I do think expectations are high looking at posts in the model thread and over on Netweather talking about later in the in month - most probably because of November-December 2010. Pretty much a once in lifetime event in our maritime climate. I would be very surprised if we had something similar again any time soon. I think when something like late 2010 happens people think it will repeat most years. Move the UK 800-1000 miles east and it would.

But certainly I would not discount it happening completely, that would be foolish. There is always a chance.

I'm not overly optimistic, the only reason that people seem to be excited is the OPI and I have a few issues. It is possible to construct a model that perfectly fits past data if the degree of freedom is sufficiently reduced, so the 0.9 Correlation might be misleading, I'm not saying it is; but I suspect its a little optimistic. And also a -ve AO like I say is useless if we have a +ve NAO which was exactly what happened last year (january), and yielded one of the mildest and wettest winters on record. 

To be fair the jet was to the south of the UK but only just. Anyway you can see the cold air did indeed spill well out of the arctic, but in the wrong places. While E America and Eurasia saw the jet well to the south, W america and the mid atlantic saw it well to the north. The radial pattern was right, but the angular pattern was very wrong. When you get a -ve NAO aswell both the angular and radial pattern works.

some very interesting comments from Steve Murr (if you can read the font...) on the other channel, lets hope he is correct in his projections, equally wonder why the contrast between SM and the Meto 30 dayer, fact or fiction?

 Quantum think you are right to be cautious about the correlation.You mention the problem of different NAO and AO signs in the same winter In practice the AO and NAO are closely correlated-the figure is r= 0.82 for the 50/51 to 13/14 data series.There were only 9 out of 64 years where the signs were different.In 6 of the years the NAO + over ruled the AO- and warmer than average winters resulted

I take notice when the Meto say something like this - like they did in previous Winters: "There are some indications later in the period of temperatures becoming below or well below average with the increasing chance of snow on high ground, but at all levels at times."

Snowing in New England. http://www.crownofmaine.com/camsky.php

they are carrying on where they left off in March.  We meanwhile continue frost free though perhaps Wednesday night will be the first air frost for a year in some paces in England?

I cant recall having frost on the car at last winter