nooo....

it will be Riccardo on his car rental website

seriously

http://app.til.it/opi/

Mañana, mañana ..................

Brian Gaze, any thoughts on this? 

As the page doesn't display a posting date it's hard to tell I guess, hence my comment .............right now all I can think about is Neil's soggy popcorn

It could be tomorrow as in..........

Here we go;

http://app.til.it/opi/

I'm going to have a good look over this work tomorrow and give my view on my Blog.

So, it's the MET vs. the OPI.

Given how much wolf has been cried already of winter weather that hasnt happened... i wonder where the mail or the express could take this?

Theyve already used all the best superlatives going on weather that didnt happen.

"Super tornado hurricane vortex to hit the uk for the next 6 months"?

There will be some eggs on faces if the OPI wins out. Think about it... millions of pounds, super computers, goverment & military contracts vs a small team hosting their data on a car rental website.

Very, very interesting.  Dont get me wrong - i have massive respect for Met.  But I always go for the underdog :)

Accuweather and Weatherbell both going for exactly the same forecast too.  Theres some weight in this forecast idea...

What an odd rationale. 

Personally I'm absolutely certain this is just another LRF. No magic formula and no more likely to be accurate than any other, so with that in mind I guess your underdog backing isn't so odd after all. They're all underdogs in a field of forecasting that is light years from sustained, scientifically proven accuracy. 

i meant underdogs in the terms of organisation and budgets etc.  not forecast.  Agreed no one has the perfect model yet.  

Im sure it isn't, but it may or may not be a part of what ends up being the future. I remain sceptical for no other reason than we are so very far away from perfecting it. And when it is perfected (I don't think it ever will be BTW) how many winters-worth of data are required for an acceptable sample size? Even if we nailed it tomorrow, we would still probably be decades away from realising it for sure. 

Interesting OPI forecast, well written, level, honest and well presented. Fascinating to see how this all plays out....  

You really are a miserable git

And will be for decades to come is my point. 

Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 

It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 

Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 

In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 

Considering that a fair % of people only visit this site in the winter months purely to ramp up talk of winter weather, it should come as no surprise that a larger number of posts will be of the positive spin towards wintry weather.  Brian could probably attest to this when he looks at site traffic and can see when the temperature plummits, the hits go through the roof.  Therefore being deliberately negative about such behaviour - to an extent serves little benefit to the site.

Saying that, a healthy dose of realism to LRFs is useful.  Experienced winter weather followers know when to post and when not.  And - based on the fact that everything in this game is a forecast, nothing is certain, and that shouldnt need to be reminded, its a given.

Looking forward, we could or could not be on the cusp of a sold LR forecasting tool that actually works, not you or anyone else can say so.  Its something that we will only know in hindsight.  So being excited about it doesnt really matter.

Ill put a  because im not having a go.   

If seasonal forecasting ever did become possible I wonder if the likes of Brian would actually appreciate it. If a cold, snowy winter were forecast this place would cost him a fortune in bandwidth. On the other hand, if mild and wet this place would be like a morgue, lol. 

As I have said on may occasions a LRF is 7-10 days , even then at the end of that period the finer details will be incorrect .

Absolutely impossible to say what the weather will do over the UK in the next 3 months