HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY NOVEMBER 10TH 2014.
NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY NOVEMBER 11TH 08:00
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A strengthening Southerly flow will carry a pair of fronts East into Western and Central areas later today, tonight and tomorrow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with rain at times across the British Isles with strong winds too and temperatures near to normal. perhaps becoming a little colder and drier from the North later.
THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow maintained in a complex form but with the main core held to a position to the South of the UK for much of the period with varying strengths from day to day.
GFS OPERATIONAL Today's GFS operational run shows the UK under bombardment from Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic and becoming slow moving close to the West and SW of the UK with repeated spells of rain and showers affecting the UK especially the South and West with mild Southerly winds for all. Through week 2 Low pressure edges further North for a time which only serves to bring more SW winds and quicker moving troughs running East and NE over the UK with sunshine and showers in between with temperatures close to average.
THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run carries the same sequence of events throughout with the northern High pressure to the NE collapsing later with a more direct hit of Atlantic wind, rain and gales for all as a result with Low pressure allowed to cross the UK directly rather than being held up just to our West.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are rather different through Week 2 as they allow High pressure to remain and in fact build to the North later in the output with the Low pressure areas afflicting Southern Britain in particular through Week 1 weakening and allowing a colder and drier Easterly flow to develop across the UK by the end of the period.
UKMO. UKMO today shows deep Low pressure over the Atlantic steadily slipping SE towards SW England at the end of the week with rain and heavy showers continuing as a result especially across South and West Britain while the North and NE could become rather drier next weekend with much cloud and sea mist rolling into Eastern and Central parts in the East and SE flow.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of slow moving occluded fronts with disturbances running North along them delivering copious rainfall across Western and Central Britain over the coming 48 hrs or so before a more gentle SW and showery flow crosses the UK for a time before renewed complex troughing attached to another deep Low West of Ireland moves into the UK from the SW by next weekend.
GEM GEM shows Low pressure in total control of the UK weather over the next week to 10 days repeatedly moving into the UK from the west while filling slowly. Rain and showers look maintained across all areas over the period with little change in temperatures values to currently and strong winds at times.
NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps Low pressure domination across the UK and as other models show having reached UK shores they stall and fill slowly with rain and showers scattered about on most days. Some chillier air is shown to infiltrate Northern regions late in the run with Low pressure then in a belt across the Atlantic the South of the UK and into Europe with the cold air in the North edging further South with time.
ECM ECM this morning shows little respite from the current pattern of Low pressure to the west and SW of the UK with stalling fronts running into Southern and Western Britain in particular with heavy rain at times here. Northern and Eastern parts could become somewhat drier as pressure is high to the NE. Little change looks likey to this overall pattern this side of Day 10 with temperatures holding near or somewhat above normal in mostly Southerly or SE winds.
THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ensembles point to a continuation of broadly unsettled weather with rain at times across the UK in average temperatures and a SE flow as Low pressure continues to stretch from Southern Greenland to the SW of the UK. Some of the rain will be heavy and winds look like continuing quite strong at times. Pressure remains High to the NE of the UK at that time.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today shows a somewhat reduced chance of High pressure developing to the North and NE bringing drier conditions to the North and East in Week 2 with slightly colder weather.
MY THOUGHTS The pattern of a Jet flow blowing further South than it's normal position continues to offer the complex mix of Low pressure just to the West of the UK feeding decelerating troughs into the UK from the West and this looks like continuing for a long while yet. This means that rain will be heavy and prolonged at times as the troughs move in, slow or stall and this looks most likely over Western, Central and SW Britain for the next week or so. Beyond that things do complicate somewhat as there is still a variety of output still having a desire to enhance High pressure to develop from the North and NE later to at least bring drier and somewhat chillier conditions to the North and NE whereas it looks unlikely that this makes it''s way down to Southern Britain as the feed of Low pressure from the Western Atlantic continues to approach the SW at times with further rain as a result. In fact the GFS operational and Parallel runs show Northern blocking colllapsing entirely later with major Atlantic storms close to the NW oof Britain as a result. The amount of output showing any cooler solution has reduced somewhat and where it is shown it is in quite a diluted form with probably NAVGEM flying the chilliest resolution for the North a week from now. The GFS Ensembles don't look bad either for cold lovers down the line with a Scandinavian High developing but cold air is held at arm's length and just outside of the run term. However, with not much support from the ECM operational and it's Ensembles who maintain a cyclonic feed from a Southerly point across the UK it looks unlikely that we will see much more than a split in the Weather in a week to 10 days with the South and West continuing to see the risk of quite large amounts of frontal rain at times from slow moving troughs while the North and East gradually see drier conditions develop with time closer to High pressure to the NE with temperatures remaining close to average overall.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset