Only 3?

Pah, we've had 4 here just down the road from you., Kev 

This December's got a 2009 feel to it. I can't remember the exact synoptics from back then, and I'm certainly not saying this December will turn out anything like as good as that one, but the weather feels similar - repeated attacks from the NW, getting colder each time as the month wore on. I think it was around this stage of the month when some tempting charts stared appearing in the GFS low res.

Instead of me spoiling the MO thread with a post like " oh well a freeze before xmas looks highly unlikely now "

...I'll put it here instead 

Think people forget that it is actually rare for the majority of the UK to have a cold snowy spell before Christmas as we seem to have to keep on saying this year and last.

If by Mid Jan it's still looking snow free then I shall start to worry, till then what will be will be and we will have to sit tight and hope for a change in pattern a little later down the line....

If at first you don't succeed ...and all that 

A very good post Jonesey, it would do some our more depressive posters good to remember that the snowiest winter of the last 200 years, that of 1947 didn't actually get going until the 20th January

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPkJRJdkZ90&feature=youtu.be

A phenomenal 3D representation of the polar vortex (mostly blue part) coming under attack from increasingly strong warming (green, yellow, orange, red and purple colours) which propagates steadily downward from the 1 hPa level (i.e. the top, where it's at it's most extreme).

This is as far as I know the first time that 3D representations have been made publicly visible like this. Hopefully a good stage on which to observe the king of the warming events - a sudden stratospheric warming.

It was at this stage that those interesting charts were appearing but the synoptics are not the same, Saint. The start of December 2009 carried on from the November, mild, winds with a southerly component and unsettled. If anything it is more similar to the start of December 2008 that had a NW to SE tracking jet pulling in polar maritime air. 

When some of the long ranger forecasters gave there view they did mention about a significant wind event in December, looks like that got that correct with what's on offer this week.... going to plan so far?

This December is resembling 2011 so far, cold Polar Maritime air leading to a rather chilly first half before tropical maritime air took over.

We may have to be patient as there is little blocking forecast across the northern hemisphere.

El Nino winters tend to have a higher chance of cold come January/February anyway. Either way the suspiciously high correlation for the OPI doesn't seem to be playing it's hand yet.

2012/13 was very much like that. Before, Xmas 2012, things did not look great for coldies and the weather over that festive period was very unsettled and not particularly cold. However, January and February (and March!) made up for it though in terms of cold weather.

This is my favourite place for snowy webcams http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html 

The start of December 2009 was indeed mild but had still produced more in the way of frost by this stage of the month here, proving how awful "cold zonality" is. Just vile bringing cold winds and not a lot else. As boring as anticyclonic gloom but less pleasant. A total of 8.2 hours frost and a low of -1.1C this month compared to 11.3 hours and a low of -2.3C for the mild first 10 days of 2009.

Reminds me more of the start of December 2011 although even that was far more frosty and wintry (33.0 hours frost and low of -2.9C up to the 10th) than this dire month has been so far due to there being some respite from the wind. That particular dose of "cold zonality" eventually led to "mild zonality", as always seems to be the case, giving us a record breaking mild Christmas, and one of the most snowless winters on record

Only two years I can remember being as comparatively lacking in wintry weather by this stage: 1994 and 2006. Neither were in any way as unpleasant as this year with the relentless gloom in November and the relentless cold wind in December so far

Can't work out the exact hours of frost here, but I do know that one night it was sub-zero by 9pm, and didn't get above 0c till around 12 hours later. And we had three other air frosts on top of that.

Dec 2009 started with 'cold zonality' (sort of), before the GH took hold.

Reindeer traffic jam! 

This is the pattern I would like to see:

Looks too dry for my neck of the woods. I prefer this more recent one (gave very widespread snow cover, so more people could enjoy it):

A thought that I mentioned on netweather.

If you are in a current cold weather pattern and you want to maintain it, would you want a sudden stratospheric warming to then occur?

I reckon such events would knock you out of a cold weather pattern. 

Winters 1976-77 and 2008-09 both had cold first halves, they both had SSW events. The mildest parts of those winters came after the warming event.

The coldest part of winter 2009-10 came before the SSW event. 

With the demise of the Met O's "possible new year cold spell", it looks to me as if the first 1/3 of winter will pass without so much as a flake being seen for many.  That leaves the climatologically colder 2/3rds of winter a chance to deliver something cold and white, though set against the back drop of a persistent Azores High and many months of above average temperatures, it is going to be challenging. 

I am looking forward to the days lengthening and the sun climbing higher in the sky once again in a weeks time

I will hope for some deep cold at some point, and for that I favour a week or so in February, from the north or north east.  January is the great under-achiever for cold in recent decades, and I can see its awful track record persisting in 2015, though  I hope to be proven wrong.

WI

Me too! This time next week the evenings will be getting longer

I also have a sneeking feeling the persistant azores high will be around for a considerable time and will be the biggest influence on the uk weather for many many months to come,as for cold this winter,rekon its going to be a case of so close yet so far.Note how December is becoming milder after a cold start.

For the last time... the Azores High has no power of it's own, it's at the mercy of wider developments just as much as a Greenland Ridge can be.

As for a SSW being unfavourable when the pattern is already cold... well it's really the luck of the draw, as every SSW is different in terms of where the residual lobes of vortex are most favoured.

Sure, if you're in a flat zonal pattern, then a SSW is a worthy gamble as you have nothing to lose.

If you're in an amplified and cold pattern for the UK, the SSW can either take it to the next level, maintain it, deplete it or remove it entirely. Having something to lose does make it less desirable in that respect but there's still the potential for us to gain instead.

Speaking of the strat. here's ECM's day 10 output for 1hPa based on yesterday's 12z op run:

This is where events are led from, so to have such strong warming punching right into the heart of the vortex is a great development indeed. 

Down at 10hPa, the warming is picking up momentum as of day 10:

Taking the similar GFSP output as a guide, this warming should progress towards the U.S. and Canada as it descends to lower levels. It's certainly moving along pretty fast days 8-10 on this ECM run.

Because the warming above East Asia and the Western Pacific reaches lower levels first, it appears that it may cause the lower vortex to stretch and possibly split by the end of the year, with one lobe towards Siberia and the other Canada/Greenland.

In theory, the 10hPa warming should then propagate down above The U.S./Canada and take down the Greenland lobe.

That's the 'master plan' as far as I can interpret from the model output and analysis on other sites. It seems very promising as it currently stands, which is reflected well by the latest EC-32 and EC-Seasonal updates in which high latitude blocking is heavily favoured  

I'd say that is the case in the vast majority of winters. Snow before New Year is incredibly rare for the major populated parts of the UK.

Updated Jamstec show a stronger signal for a colder winter, a month ag the signal was a lot weaker

March to may is Very Cold - so potentially Cold into March

by the looks of the Precip forecast - it would seem its favouring Greenland HP as its drier to our north west.

Check out some past events...

The winter (1979-80) really is worth a look, (on Kartenarchive) I fear it could have some similarities to this year's winter but I comfort myself that we've had 35 years  of time elapse where the composition of the atmosphere has changed a bit, so analogues may no longer be applicable in the way they once might have been.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me1Mon.html

For what it is worth CFS now suggesting a close to average January and a  cold February.

Hold on a minute - it says the initial conditions are 17th-27th November which makes it considerably out of date... did they finally give up on running the model or something? 

Initial conditions 7-17 Dec.:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

Average for the UK until a below-avge May and June.

Thanks for the  correction  Stormchaser. Youo are right -I pressed the E1 button instead of  E3 So Feb has moved from below average to average.