Well Mr Fergusson still says that there is a chance of a pattern change but not till towards the end of January. Before then he says we have some stormy weather to put up with, suppose it's more interesting than a boring bartlett slug.

Out of curiosity, could someone answer me a little ponderance that popped into my head:

There is talk that good snow cover over Siberia & Scandinavia encourages the formation of high pressure there, connected to the cold airmass above being more stable (have I got this right?)

If that's the case, when then does the theory not work equally across Eastern Canada & Greenland?

Well there's always a chance of pattern change. You can say that any day of the year and it's accurate. 

In the meantime it looks rather tedious, albeit at least it's not cold. I do realise I leave myself open here to Gooner posting a line of numbers and telling me it's not beach weather like it usually is in January 

Happy New Year  to all TWOers!

Ive done a bit of "karten arkive" trawling and the early 1970s winters bear some resemblance to this year, but as so much has changed in the intervening 40 years I'm less well disposed to pattern matching than I once was.

Looking at things another way, there are about 13 weeks between the solstice and the spring equinox.  We are 1 and a half weeks through that 13 week period.  There remain about 11 and a half weeks of winter weather opportunity for severe conditions (March 2013 was a wake up call for many as to just what March can deliver in this respect).

The next 2 weeks are a zonal write off to my eyes, that then leaves us 9 and a half weeks til the equinox.  My view remains that February this year will offer the best opportunity for some widespread lowland snow. Edit - I'm starting see 1983 as a best fit analogue FWIW.

Its going to be another fascinating period of model watching, Im hopeful that a close by Azores high or even Bartlett High over the next couple of weeks can spare me the same battering from gales that I had last winter, as it is looking potentially quite violent, 8-11 January on all the models looks nasty.

So with near record global temps (due to hot oceans) and DMI80N showing low Arctic temps would that hint at more energy in the weather machine as it fights to even things out?

Until the Arctic is ice free over winter ( and shrouded in fog keeping it warm over the sunless months) a warming planet must surely spawn energetic weather as the difference, pole to equator, increases?

I will save you from that Matthew

You're probably more of an expert than I am, but I thought that it has long been said that the arctic is warming faster than any where else on the planet, possibly reducing the temperature difference pole to equator.

But maybe things have changed recently, pretty sure that the arctic ice extent has risen in the last 2-3 years. Odd.

I don't think I was far off the mark with my December forecast.  It looks like it ended up a close to average month for temperatures (slightly mild depending on which CET series you use).  It was an average month for rainfall in my location, although it looks like it was a little below average in other areas.    The end of of December cold period perhaps came a little earlier than expected, and finished a little earlier than expected.  So overall, fairly pleased with the forecast so far.  Will just give a reminder of my original prognosis for January & February 2015:

Milder Atlantic air encroaches into the UK at times for the middle two weeks of January.   However, I think there will be much more significant period of cold towards the end of January and lasting until the middle of February. Certainly a strong risk of snowfall associated with this. Probably drier and less cold in the second half of February.

January 2015: Rather cold, near normal rainfall
February 2015: Rather cold and dry, (drier further north, colder further south-east)

I often wonder if humans have, or once had, a gut instinct for weather, like some animals do.  Maybe we do still have it deep down but it's overpowered by our much stronger feelings of wishful thinking. 

It's been a strange feeling winter. It doesn't feel like it has been wintry even though I have seen more frosts than last winter thus far and the field behind me was snow covered from Boxing Day night to New Year's Eve, the longest period such period since December 2010

Please could someone direct me to a solar monitoring website?  There was an excellent solar cycle thread in the now non-existent climate forum on TWO and I don't know if there is a thread any more.

I'm thinking that solar activity might still be high as we are just past the peak of this current cycle, and this might be contributing to our relatively mild winter (although it is colder than last year's mild fest).

Thank you

David

Northallerton

The 5 great winters of the 20th century (1916-17, 1928-29, 1939-40, 1962-63, 1978-79) , 3 of them occurred near a solar maxima.

I don't know what has happened to me recently but my scepticism has deepened. People are blaming solar activity for this winter not delivering so far. Solar activity is lower than a number of recent peaks. Low solar activity alone doesn't explain the great winters above.

We are told sudden stratospheric warming events increases the chance of northerly blocking and cold episodes.

I go along with that but it doesn't explain a number of cold outbreaks. Where was the SSW that resulted in late Nov-Dec 2010? The coldest part of winter 1976-77 occurred before the SSW. 

I would say  that a SSW gives you a chance of breaking out of a weather pattern but if you are in a cold pattern and you want to maintain it, would you want a SSW to occur?

Then there is OPI and SAI. It seems that things are not going according to plan here. The trouble seems to be the low pressure anomaly over the Barents-Kara region. 

NAO, AO, OPI, SAI, PDO, AMO, SSW, MWW, ENSO.....it's an alphabet soup of complexities.

Current Solar Data: NOAA data 

Maybe handy.

SpaceWeather.com

Solarham.net

Solarmonitor.org

tesilebeder.ru

All have solar charts.

A sub 2C day today around here - could be one of the coldest maxima of the year! 

Does anyone remember the year when Winter was poor for snow & cold but then as soon as early spring arrived we got a fair bit of snow in the South?

What odds on that happening again this year 

Was that 2008 when we got a heavy fall in Easter?

I am actually becoming quite worried that the coldest patterns will be developing later in February and persisting through March this year, similar to 2013.

March 2013 was interesting as a case study but delivered nothing more than a bit of wet snow that melted on contact with the ground. The impact on SSTs then made warm conditions here in the far south rather restricted until late June that year. I also think they held back July 2013 a bit and prevented it from being close to 2006 in terms of the heat... admittedly a silver lining for those who don't fare well in such conditions.

If the cold comes towards the end of Feb and persist through March then, IMO, all well and good.  If nothing else, it will potentially be the first period (of more than a few days) of colder than average conditions since August (or possibly earlier). If the cold does come, it might hopefully be the beginning of a cooler few months/year, although I'm probably stretching my imagination a bit too much here!!

David

Northallerton

I think your right stormchaser and from memory it was a Sunday night, I remember sitting in my lounge and noticing something out the window, it took a good minute or so to sink in that it was actually snowing, I can't remember the actual 2007/2008 Winter though so not sure if the April (Sring) snowfall was all we had??

With the charts out to mid-Jan showing nothing cold & snowy, that's half of winter gone with no decent cold spell*

Another winter turning into a dud?

* the post-Xmas spell here gave a snowfall that was half-melted by drizzle/rain afterwards, followed by a few frosts - distinctly underwhelming

Another overnight snowfall of an inch on 6/7th April, a Sunday night again.

We also had some snow showers on the evening of 1st February. The winter overall was fairly mild here.

Had about 4 inches of snow here that night, was quite unexpected as it wasn't forecasted for more than a cm or so. We've had a few snowy March's over the past 10 years or so, most notably 2006, 2008, 2013. Can we get another one? I wouldn't bet against it. It would seem early Spring is more favourable to get cold to our shores as the Atlantic traditionally settles down. 

March has long been snowier than December for many areas and I think that trend has intensified over a long term average of 30 years.