I'll do another snow risk map tonight, probably around 10pm-midnight.

The soundings are showing snow

It becomes less favourable towards the afternoon as that system moves in, thats going to be annoying to take into account. Also the winds are going to be lighter and shelter is going to be offered by the pennines and grampians for eastern areas. 

A bigger problem is the less aggressive convective activity. 

There are lots of people in this area who live on 'high hills', many of them farmers to whom severe winter weather is rather more important than those who working in offices.

Nothing too dramatic so far, just blustery showers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xc0mbxDUgxk

The temperature has risen to 4c. The problem is everytime a shower comes the temp rises so even if it gets to say 2 its back up to rain territory.

Don't think I will see snow tonight either even if the weather says so. The temp would need to drop to at least 2c and that is the best.

thank you :)

here the temperatures actually rise in the rain.

only a few people live above 800 feet here.

That's quite common in very blustery conditions like this. It's why you often see initial snow/sleet turn to rain in showers. 

Well anything above 200m has a decent chance of seeing some amount of snow, but most cities and major towns are below 100 even in Scotland.

Yea to be perfectly honest it looks like we were due snow but wind mixed it out. Reading on netweather even in Scotland its raining, the only people reporting snow are in aviemore and really high up.

The temp is refusing to drop. We drove to 250m earlier and at 2.5c it was sleeting so the dp must be messed up. The Met office keep referring to lying snow above 200m but there ain't none here. 

I have to be honest, that although most people in southern areas in the UK are hoping for some kind of back edge snowfall etc. I think the main concern should be the forecast rainfall overnight Thursday and into Friday for southern areas of the UK. it was only a fortnight or so ago where between 20-30mm of rain fell, particularly across east Anglia, and did pose some flooding issues. if current predictions of 20-30mm were to materialise, I'd imagine that flooding would once again be repeated in these areas and maybe across some other southern areas of the UK. Coupled with gales/severe gales, brings the threat of leaves, branches and trees restricting/blocking water flow in rivers and increasing the flood risk further. something to keep in mind and watch out I say....

Anyone live just to the north of the Humber? EURO4 going for a few cm by morning in that locality. Be interesting if it is right.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/12/10/basis12/ukuk/weas/14121109_2_1012.gif

Ok so i finally got snow. It hailed then turned to snow (got down to 2.4c) and now is back to sleet at 2.9c.

Not sure whats going to happen tonight? Hopefully temp drops to give all snow. 

The 18z GFS(P) run develops the low more than the operational GFS giving a closed circulation low still actively developing as it moves across England.

I can't paste direct links to the specific charts I am referring to from my iPad but if you click the 33h button on the left of the charts shown at the links below you will see what I am referring to.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs-para/royaume-uni/pression/3h.htm

Wind gusts at 03z on Friday are quite severe even inland with up to 60mph widely and locally 65-70mph possible.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs-para/royaume-uni/vent-rafales/3h.htm

Could be some disruption from this system in the south East if it develops as shown above.

Here is my crayloa snow risk. Please note as usual this is meant for low ground including towns and cities. Anyway the picture is snow is much more likely for some areas tommorow, watch out for it particularly in the showers at about 9am, I expect snowrisk to gradually decrease thereafter. As always the probability represents a low ground viewer from seeing unambiguous snow during the 24 hour period of today.

Adendum, expect an area of 40-50% snow in the E yorks/humberside region. 

Adendum 2: High snow risk contour region should extend slightly further west. 

it was supposed to come here first then it went south and now its heading north so I am not really sure what to think.

both gfs have pushed it north but not enough for here or Scotland. Lets hope this continues.

Looks that way, seems to be a slim chance of snow cover for ground lower than 250-300m or so. The latest EURO4 downgrades the snow amounts even for the southern part of the Pennines. Looking great for the Yorkshire Dales though.

You would think that at 135 meters in north Cumbria I would see snow tonight but it's still 3.2c and raining with a little hail and sleet, the temperature just refuses to drop.

i saw a lot of snow on the M74 through Southern Scotland today but that was above 250meters and the snow line doesn't appear to have dropped since.

i think it's just too early in the season for lowland snow on a north westerly even in the north.

Andy

Just done my usual Cloud Master forecast for my facebook group, did find it a bit painful but at least I've done my bit for society.

Oh well, just have to keep a stiff upper, jolly good show ol' chap, what, and hope we get through late tonight and tomorrow morning with little trouble, I have experienced far worse than this but still sucks all the same.

That forecasting in these type of atmospheric conditions is really difficult - even for the pros.

Got a little bit of a wet snow shower on the way into work. It way laying on the high level roads (above 200m) but as I came down in Edinburgh it cleared to sleet pretty quick.

Today I'd expect much of the north to have a series of very wintry showers predominantly sleet or rain, but with a wee bit of wet snow in the mix. Anything that lies on the ground will melt quickly as the westerlies keep temps stubbornly just a knife width too warm. The showers will during the day tend to become more confined to exposed westerly slopes, but we will see a few more organised bands of rain moving Northwards over Northern England. As night falls the risk of showers will increase again over lower ground.

Higher ground (>300m), especially westerly slopes have the best chance of getting some decent snow cover and in the wind some drifting, rapid melt can be expected in the 200-300m range.

Tomorrow's low looks to have shifted slightly further South again, the risk of snow remains for the southern side of the penninines and exposed higher ground in Yorkshire, but it's becoming increasingly marginal, todays update on the Met's snow warning will be interesting.