theweatheroutlook

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Russwirral
17 December 2014 16:27:49
Interesting how much resistance there has been for cold air to plunge south. Seems to get to the midlands and just stop. Quite unusual. Perhaps these Northerlies just dont have enough Whoomph!

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Russwirral
17 December 2014 16:30:28

Turns into a pretty pathetic attempt at a northerly


 


Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
weathernovice
17 December 2014 16:32:02

Not a warm start to Xmas day on the op run, not brass monkeys either mind but at least seasonal I would think?


 


Gooner
17 December 2014 16:32:21

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-228.png?12


Look NE ..................maybe


 


EDIT


 


As I said


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-264.png?12 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
17 December 2014 16:33:01

Interesting how much resistance there has been for cold air to plunge south. Seems to get to the midlands and just stop. Quite unusual. Perhaps these Northerlies just dont have enough Whoomph!

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


It's simply because we still have a belt of high pressure across Europe. Guaranteed to kill a northerly. You very rarely get a decent cold spell here when the pressure is >1020mb around Italy.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
17 December 2014 16:34:41

Edit - not a bad run actually! But the action never gets to the south properly

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
17 December 2014 16:36:46

Looks very wet for the south. Real shame as the cold air doesnt get enough time to bed in.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
17 December 2014 16:37:48
To be honest up here in the north I would settle for any of the recent GFS runs (including this one). Some form of colder period looks likely now IMO. It is just a question of how cold and for how long. A day or two of coolish weather or much longer and much colder. Either is possible at this time scale so it is definitely worth watching developments.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
17 December 2014 16:38:27

Looks like battleground snow/rain events. Someone could get dumped on badly. Hopefully we will get more undercutting nearer the time

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Russwirral
17 December 2014 16:39:28

as my parents would say 


 


"fandabbydozey"


 


Lots of Snow laden kinks in that LP.


 


Netweather GFS Image


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Jonesy
17 December 2014 16:39:44

I know it's the wrong thread but might be worth a look before getting to deep into things..


Meto 22nd-31st


Temperatures generally slightly above average in the south, with colder temperatures falling below average in the north.


Meto 1st Jan-15th Jan


Temperatures generally slightly above average in the south, with colder temperatures falling below average in the north.


Updated at: 1401 on Wed 17 Dec 2014


Full update here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Quantum
17 December 2014 16:40:30

Think this is the 'reddest' run yet!



 


Still going for mostly rain showers on xmas day though, I think it must be underestimating it here though.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Arbroath 1320
17 December 2014 16:42:42

To be honest up here in the north I would settle for any of the recent GFS runs (including this one). Some form of colder period looks likely now IMO. It is just a question of how cold and for how long. A day or two of coolish weather or much longer and much colder. Either is possible at this time scale so it is definitely worth watching developments.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


FI on the GFS 12z op looks like being a humdinger for coldies. An awesome Greeny/North Atlantic High by t240

GGTTH
doctormog
17 December 2014 16:44:39


 


FI on the GFS 12z op looks like being a humdinger for coldies. An awesonme Greeny/North Atlantic High by t240


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 


The parallel run might be shaping up quite nicely too. Interesting times.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
weathernovice
17 December 2014 16:46:09

To be honest up here in the north I would settle for any of the recent GFS runs (including this one). Some form of colder period looks likely now IMO. It is just a question of how cold and for how long. A day or two of coolish weather or much longer and much colder. Either is possible at this time scale so it is definitely worth watching developments.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


This was my thinking as well so glad someone with more knowledge is on a similar page .....

Gooner
17 December 2014 16:50:12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-240.png?12


Stunning from GFSP


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-1-240.png?12

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
17 December 2014 16:50:46

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014121712/gemnh-0-186.png?12


GEM goes a bit mad for Chrismas Day

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
17 December 2014 16:51:11

Ice day for many by Monday after Xmas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28817.gif


 


And this has battleground all over it - 12C in the SW, 0 in the Midlands! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn31217.gif


 


Doesn't look like any joy for the south yet, though.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Solar Cycles
17 December 2014 16:52:18

Nurse, Nurse, I need my medication as the Azores High has gone AWOL!

Robertski
17 December 2014 16:52:33


I know it's the wrong thread but might be worth a look before getting to deep into things..


Meto 22nd-31st


Temperatures generally slightly above average in the south, with colder temperatures falling below average in the north.


Meto 1st Jan-15th Jan


Temperatures generally slightly above average in the south, with colder temperatures falling below average in the north.


Updated at: 1401 on Wed 17 Dec 2014


Full update here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


It does also state that there is no clear signal and there could be cold periods too.

The Beast from the East
17 December 2014 16:52:54


I know it's the wrong thread but might be worth a look before getting to deep into things..


Meto 22nd-31st


Temperatures generally slightly above average in the south, with colder temperatures falling below average in the north.


Meto 1st Jan-15th Jan


Temperatures generally slightly above average in the south, with colder temperatures falling below average in the north.


Updated at: 1401 on Wed 17 Dec 2014


Full update here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Yes, it is a concern. Perhaps reflects what we see in the 12z operational. Cold air is pushed back from the South


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
17 December 2014 16:54:10


 


Yes, it is a concern. Perhaps reflects what we see in the 12z operational. Cold air is pushed back from the South


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Yes charts like this in far FI look tasty, but in actuality the 850s are above average in the south!


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
17 December 2014 16:54:14

A dream set up for the north with snow spreading southwards on Christmas afternoon.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Arbroath 1320
17 December 2014 16:57:48


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-240.png?12


Stunning from GFSP


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-1-240.png?12


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Agree Marcus. If that 240t chart was to verify, and a very big if I suppose, those winds to our West would be frigid as they are coming right over the pole

GGTTH

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