NAVGEM also doing something really odd. Tbh of all the model runs the only remotely natural solutions for the 12Z have been the GEM and the normal GFS. For the sake of consistency I feel obligated to point out that the GFSP solutions offered earlier today were also very unnatural, and jumping on that bandwagon was a huge mistake.

Agree with you there definitely. What I don't get is how the models can come up with some truly bizarre solutions. The NAVGEM and UKMO in particular don't seem to have a clue what to do while the GFSP seems bipolar.

Goes without saying  but yeah sorry since this winter started 

Focusing on the main trouble period...

GFS: LP coming in from NW days 5-6 slows and then just stalls near Iceland. LP over Azores positioned close enough to interact with the jet and move NE. Basically a double-slam in the gonads. The broad pattern remains favourable for recovery thanks to the U.S. pattern remaining amplified, and it comes within a whisker 10-14 so not all doors are closed there.

UKMO: that LP from the NW also slows but doesn't stall as GFS goes for. LP west of Azores is far enough away to avoid interaction with the jet for the time being at least. So the run can still erode away that Euro High but it sure is cutting things close.

GFSP: LP from NW is faster, phases with LP over Scandi so much better for getting the jet to dive towards Europe, bringing the cold air during Christmas Eve. LP to the west of the Azores even further away than UKMO has it so no chance of interaction - back to the well-supported mid-Atlantic ridge scenario.

GEM: similar to GFSP 06z out to day 6 (but doesn't evolve the same way down the line).

On the face of it GFSP and GEM seem very promising within that range, UKMO raises questions and GFS has a good go at throwing our hopes of a seasonal festive period out of the window.

Days 7-8, GFSP has changed to a flatter low over the Eastern U.S. which, instead of pumping WAA to support the mid-Atlantic ridge, allows the jet to just blast the jet right through it with catastrophic impacts on our pattern.

An ironic kick in the teeth is that the momentum then subsides just as LP has made it as far as Iceland, the amplified pattern then being set up in precisely the wrong configuration for a recovery of the situation. Had the LP stalled S. of Greenland, the amplification would have supported a high developing to our NE, much as we finally get to see right at the end of the run.

GEM hasn't got that flatter low and follows along the lines of the GFSP 00z i.e. a properly cold and snowy run of days.

GFSP is the only operational run to feature such a flat low in the U.S. but it is a real shame as I was enjoying its consistently cold output up to today's 06z.

I'm not going to hide it - this analysis took some determination to write in a level-headed manner! What's most unusual is the fact that there are different reasons for the downgraded outlook on each model output.

With so many different ideas, that could reflect some serious uncertainty and yes, confidence in these latest runs has to be rock-bottom, but I fear what the GEFS will get up to when presented with so many spanners to work with 

The latest expert opinions seem to suggest that the upstream pattern on all but the GEM 12z (and this morning's ECM 00z) doesn't fit with what the background drivers should produce.

Maybe, just maybe, the models are detecting a signal for a slight adjustment and getting really carried away with it. Whatever the reality is, the dominant word is uncertainty, in fact it's probably about as high as it can possibly get for any given range starting 4 days from now.

...but beware that even if the colder solutions regain dominance soon, they may not be the same in structure or timing.

Apart from viewing the ECM, I'm hoping to take it easy this evening as that's better than trying to figure out all the reasons behind what is basically a chaotic set of output largely inconsistent with recent modelling and, up to the 00z output, trends.

If we had a time machine, go back to the run up to Christmas 1968 and put the data in from that period into the models I suspect we would have got similar headaches. Hint of high pressure to the NW, low pressure coming in from the west southwest threatening to cut off any potential cold air from the north.

Ahem.

Off, on Off, on and Off.

The GFS and UKMO continue to show that next week it looks likely to be a few degrees above average day and night, We will see West SW winds, and no singing chances by T144hrs for a change to this as to our Northeast say bye to our Cold chances for winter, and a Weaker PV Low SW of Iceland at t144 on GFS and UKMO.

West Europe to Azores see Large Anticyclone and mild conditions with lot of clouds grey skies with some sunny spells W Europe half.

Slow moving High over Greenland surrounded in West NW and the SE of it by Shallow to greater Low Pressure and a Large NW Atlantic High that helps feed the PV Low developed to its South and SE SW and that gets in the line next for our flow Westerly, then SW flow, then Cool NW followed by High over to our West and Central SW by the Week after Xmas Week's Weekend maybe, that looks like bringing Cold and frosty weather for a few days, the timing of it's arrival is not yet clear- it could be the Western NW Atlantic High that I saw GFS 12z heading to UK, in 12-14 days time ahem.

And it may help bring some Low Pressure to North Europe- again by same time, which could drape the East and North UK, with a few days and nights of much needed clear night sunny days and cold frosty spell for a few days- though the GFS and UKMO seem to be very flip flopping but this theme is very normal for us in NW Europe hmm.

The GEFS are fence sitters, trying to deal with a Greenland high and an Azores high is like keeping two cats in the same basket. Perhaps the ECM can bring this ridiculous situation down to planet earth and offer a sane and non-ambiguous solution.

If you want a run through a winter from the past when the charts had they been available would have seen disappointment after disappointment, where the end product always ended up pretty mild and snowless, look no further than 1979-80 on kartenarchive.  The number of times the Synoptics snatched defeat from the jaws of victory is stunning!  Nothing this year can do will match 1979-80.  Had TWO been around it would have been known of as The Winter of the Razorblades.

It's the usual suspects: Beast and one or two others. As we recently discussed in the mods forum, the sensible and informative discussion has largely outweighed the one or two line nonsense of late. Long may it continue. 

It still is on the cards, apart from the GFSP all the models are still going for an excellent pattern at the 500mb level, really that was the only downgrade today - like Joe says not much has change. My beef was with the models coming up with completely unbelievable surface patterns that almost certainly will not verify.

Todays 12zs this far is a prime reason why I stopped doing twice daily analysis on this and the other forum as well as my website. I will make no comment until the morning runs before I throw the towel in on the cold.

Which is more reliable?

Both very different but for the same day!??

The NH 500mb pattern is arguably the only thing we should be looking at at this range. 

North/North Westerly winds or South /South westerly?

I think the ECM solution is the one to watch, its not coming up with Drivvel like some of the other models. 

In terms of how good it is for a cold spell, its mixed but we could see a reload, on the whole I think its something to be optimistic about.

Seems like a combination of the GFS/ECM/GEM might be the most plausible solution. Low at 192h I think is overdone.

I'm watching the ECM 12z come out just now (out to 168hrs when I last looked) and already it seems to be diverging from what the GFS 12z went for.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif

One thing I learned a while ago is that it takes a brave person to bet against the ECM.

I reckon the Fax out to t120 is the best.
Anything further is but modeled speculation.imo.

Although, lots of fun.

There is just something so odd about what it does at 192hr, surely there has to be a less contrived way about things, I've never seen anything remotely like that before, and I'm pretty sure I'm not going to! Either the greenland high or the Azores high has to win, this stalemate type situation just doesn't seem plausible to me.

There's certainty nothing wrong with the ECM from a cold lover's perspective, its just a little late. Overall a very good if still rather ridiculous run.

... Although it does show a whopping great Greenland High. 

A rather frustrating setup if it does evolve like that. Good job that's not necessarily going to happen... 

I'm afraid I don't see where you're coming from there, WM. The ECM 12z, while not as good as this morning's run, seems to show a LP originating over Greenland then moving gradually south towards the UK, and pressure looking to rise over Greenland afterwards. I sure don't see any lows heading to Iceland as per recently on that run, unless my eyesight is failing me.