you wait until tomorrow at 17:50

Which one of us will be even more depressed 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif

Critical moment now. We need that trough to develop asap and dig south

Maybe, but not half as depressing as last winter though, IMO. At least we have seen some moderately interesting model charts in times in the last couple of weeks or so, even if they haven't then come to fruition. We didn't even have that at any time a year ago.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122006/gfsnh-0-162.png?6

Yep, LP nowhere near as deep as previously predicted , wonder what this will do further down the line

Believe it or not a full-blown SSW in the next few weeks took a back seat for a few days as signs of a wave 2 warming event in the right place at the right time became the main source of excitement over the past week.

For that, the strong U.S. low in 5-6 days time needs to coincide with a decent high over Greenland while having the right angle (S to N or SE to NW) to drive warm air right onto the plateau. ECM and GEM meet this criteria, ECM days 6-7 and GEM days 8-9, but UKMO and  GFS have the low angled more SW-NE which pushes most of the warmer air across the SW tip of Greenland - not good enough for the warming event.

This also has big impacts down the line, as the SW-NE angled low acts to flatten the Atlantic pattern days 7-10 while the S-N or SE-NW angled low maintains a more amplified Atlantic flow.

The results are clear to see when contrasting ECM and GEM with GFS for the 7-10 day period.

As for the shortwave shenanigans in the Atlantic, we still see a wide spread of possible outcomes, with UKMO and GFS showing the more southerly track with a quicker northerly but ECM and GEM showing a more northerly track which takes longer to deliver any results... but increasingly it appears that the more amplified upstream pattern connects with this slower evolution, so we are left with a choice of fast but short-lived results or a slower but longer-lived reward.

Yes, it is a bit frustrating when the models initially find a faster route and then it turns out to be far more complicated, but that nearly always happens, and we are still working with only the first of the really significant opportunities for a cold spell to develop that we've encountered this season.

This run seems to show a much less amplified and exaggerated pattern. 

Everything looks so feeble and 'can't be bothered' on this run, the low pressure doesn't intensify at all and the Atlantic high is like shall I ridge north.......naa I will just slump right here lol

edit I have seen enough of the op run 

Gfs p is better but still looks like everything is going to sink south quickly as the east coast storm moves away.

infact there is a brief snow storm in the south as the cold air catches and undercuts the precipitation. That would be a nice touch!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=2&runpara=1

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122006/gfsnh-0-174.png?6

It is better, but as you say brief

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122006/gfsnh-0-180.png?6

It seems some semblance of normality has resumed, although it still took me 3 attempts to download the 6Z data so something still isn't right. But anyway, here goes.

That low coming through on boxing day is clearly the interesting factor here, and there could be significant snow or rain on it, so its interesting to watch what is going to happen. It would seem my own personal snow probability paramater is landing on its feet here, with snow indeed suggested on its northern edge.

This is despite 850hpa temperatures being rather disappointing.

And nicely illustrates the fallibilities of the 850 temperatures.  Sorry about the image crop, I have no idea why it saved it like that - but all kinds of stuff has been going wrong recently, I'm surprised this loaded at all.

GFSP gets close to something from the East

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122006/gfsnh-0-288.png?6

Pass me another straw

Cheers

Well that was enjoyable

Pub lunch calls I feel

Differences so early on, might not be until Monday before anything gets pinned down

Extended ECM ensembles continue to paint a cold picture...

Yes if and a very big if the HP settled onto Scandinavia rather than slip way south then it could kick off a proper cold spell.Chances of happening -10% max!

I'm still skeptical of how the models handle the low after xmas, think this could change a lot, in fact I expect an upgrade to a more favourable scenario. Personally I'm far more dissapointed about this:

How did we end up going from beautiful red brown, to a horrible blue, even purple in such a short time. 

Hey Dean. Good to see ya. You've always been pretty sure of a cold spell.  Glad to see you are still Mr Positive. Balances me out nicely as I feel the complete opposite and can't really see any prospects for several weeks at least.

The ECM keeps pumping out mild outliers run after run.

I know where my money is and its not on a cold spell bar a brief cold snap which of course is different to an actual cold spell.

These should keep you going for a while

Again, very interesting.  Its impossible to deny the risk of something colder is still there from around 28-29th.  But all the while the Op says no, and all the while the cold stays well out in FI,  it is also worth paying attention to the operational output and keep checking on what the experts at the Met O say will transpire.