They'd only do that if there was an overwhelming cluster around one particular outcome and even then they'd be "tainted" by the other solutions.

Those ensemble mean charts are worthless at the moment.

Clusters are the way to go!

Post  next weekends depression at 240h New Years day wide diversity of options but grouping  together gives a 50:50 split Mild:Cold.

FI in t174 but interesting the GFS Snow Accu across the South

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=174&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Then further into lala land a NE'ly

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=uv85&HH=186&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Straw Clutching I know !! 

Talking of clusters, today's EPS has no fewer than 5 of them! Here's the 120 thumbnails:

Now PTB 1 is what I play for! Awesome run through FI!

Back to reality and a couple of colder options showing, but an array of mild options also on the table. Interesting model watching, also given changes in the strat. Check out its position towards the end on the Op - very peculiar

GEFS clusters are available here - far more useful than those overall mean charts.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=204&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Most promising news for some time - these strat forecasts are usually rock solid, once they show up.

More Jam Tomorrow.  

Models seem to be going for turnovers today. Like I say, it isn't over until the wind has a westerly component in it.

Thanks for that link - I didn't realize this analysis was available 

He forgot to add the year........ 2016

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Reaching The Crunch On Post Christmas Cold

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Still hard to call the weather after Boxing Day.

It's over! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

New type of chart tonight (hopefully the 12Z will continue the good trend of the 6Z - btw the parallel is pretty chilly isn't it!)

Here are ensemble 6Z snow risk maps anyway:

Midday xmas day - looks like a small chance of snow showers down the E coast.

Boxing day midday, looks like a very low risk of snow on the leading edge of the trough moving in for Scotland.

As the cold air finally truly digs in on the 27th the snow risk transfers to the NW, and is visible as a fairly widespread low-moderate risk.

It would seem that the ensembles favour a NWerly flow by the 28th, however this is clearly arctic air and the distribution of snow showers reflects that. 

I would take some notice of that- support for a shift to NAO -ve conditions (on average)

It seems normal service is resumed for both GFS variants on the 12Z run, although based on the last week or so who knows what 'normal' is?
It is perfectly possible that these runs are on the edge of the milder cluster so best wait for the ENS to stream out.

We'll know in a while.  Frustrating isn't it?

God this thread is becoming so predictable. I can tell - even before coming in here - how crap the operational is, because of who's posted.

I can't wait to see the ensemble data if this is one of the milder solutions 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.html

It may not be long-lasting but mild it is not. Seasonal at very worst. Anyway the big inter-run changes simply highlight the uncertainty.

Met O at 120.  Stormy, or to put it another way, Bullseye!

The GFS and GFSP are poor but the UKMO is the best it has been in a while. However if the ECM supports the GFS this would be the first time two major models have both gone for mild on the same run.

well a nationwide freeze it certainly isn't. If it's windy, cold rain your after for a couple of days then fine,  but a return to a flatter pattern looks almost certain to me, which looks to be a milder solution. Despite NW winds this month, isn't the CET currently slightly above the December average?

There's a fine line between impartial observation and subtle provocation, and you walk it very well Jason

'Hopefully' for the majority in this thread the MetO will build on a more southerly exit for the low and raise heights behind as per the 06Z GFS OPs and show the GFS 12Z to be one of the more inaccurate variations on the theme.