Is that seriously the best comment you can make about that chart? 

It is interesting to see you are going against the Met Office outook and suggesting a milder solution. I have no idea re. the CET, as it is not something I look at very much and the NW this month have not been overly cold (in terms of source) although they have been cold enough for many in NWern parts, especially Scotland to have seen snow.

My point is not that the outlook is very wintry (although it could still turn out that way) but that this mild flatter pattern you seem to mention regularly is by no means certain given the range of options. It is also not widely supported by the experts or a a consensus in the models. 

I am not after windy cold rain for a couple of day so thankfully that's not what the charts show for my location.

GEM is all over the place. We get some undercut which saves the day

Shame about GfS after METO looks better. No cross model agreement for a while yet

GFS seems to want to power up the northern jet with no undercutting. Lets hope this is wrong but it has been performing well so its a shame. No way to get away from that

On the positive side, I'm almost certain the 18Z will be better; regression to the mean and all.

If it has been performing well does that mean the 06z GFS op run will also be correct.  It cannot be "performing well" and totally inconsistent between runs (like all the other models).

If there is one flaw the GFS has (according to what people have said in the past), it is that sometimes at this time of year it overcooks the strength of the atlantic. I've been following the model output regularly for nearly 10 years now and I have seen this time after time with that model, especially at this time of year.

Did JACKO hack into the server?

Potentially the best chart of the season and we have to wait!

By popular request I'm changing your username to yoyo 

LOL

:-0

The problem is it has backup from all of the minor models. The scary thing is the GEM is actually an upgrade on the horror of this morning though! If the ECM backs the GFS then I think the end is nigh 

This is GFS ptb 1  at around 126: The point is, it is akin to the UKMO. 

Surely, as it is a weather forum, bi-Polar would be better? 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-126.png?12

GFS control so far

Better, but the northern arm will still collapse the ridge. The entire ens suite will probably follow a similar trend. Oh dear, lets hope ECM is completely the opposite!

Yes, the razor is coming out of the drawer tonight (but I'll wait for ECM)

Sorry, fat finger moment.

and to the point, what would happen if the Northern arm did collapse the ridge? Perhaps you could give me a clue Doc... 🙂 LOL

If the GEFS are good then I'll be less worried about the ECM, good ensembles and bad OP means it will probably change by 10pm anyway.

The GFS ENS suite offer a huge range of solutions again - so in essence still inconclusive after the 'storm'.
The headline just now is the UKMO solution in respect the shift south of the weekend low.

I'll resist the urge to over-analyse one ensemble member from one model of one run thanks. Overall the picture remains very uncertain with th chance of a potent storm at the weekend and perhaps some snow and some cold. That has always been the picture and the details have never been certain.

"What happens after" you ask? I have no idea what is going to happen on Boxing Day never mind beyond. If you are confident good luck to you but I'd love to know upon what that is based. The 06z GFS op run? 

I'm actually on the verge of putting a duvet over my head and giving up.

I think the problem is that the weather is at a point of unstable equilibrium like a haystack balanced on a needle, any slight perturbation causes it to fall off but which way we have no idea. If the GEFS on the whole still support a cold spell then I recommend binning the 12Z OP runs.