So much talk of a pattern change recently.

What I see in the output this evening is a continuation of the relentless cycle of ridge, trough, ridge, trough. 

Alas no sustained wintry weather anywhere in sight.

It's a better situation than a static Euro high, or Bartlett though. 

Variety is the spice of life.

You are correct that NAVGEM 18z offers the UKMO 12z some support. Perhaps a glimmer of hope for coldies.

Have we arrived back at Jan 2014 again?

Major backing off from any cold tonight :(

Heavens, I hope not.

A very typical and average sounding winter for most of low-lying England. So yes, must be a good chance. 

Lets not jump the gun here, the 12Z was very poor but I think we need a few more runs before we can say we are going down that line. To me the pattern always looked good for a GH but over the last couple of days it has downgraded to the point of a knife edge, it would take very little to push us back on the other-side as the 18Z NAVGEM and even the 18Z GFS demonstrate (its poor but its very different to the 12Z). If the 0Z backs up the 12Z then things could well fall apart very quickly, but perhaps uncertainty will not go down until after that 'bomb' low pressure system has passed, 'bombs'  are hardly the easiest things to predict.

Reminder: The UKMO 96hr Wetterzentrale and UKMO Dec 23 2014 Follow last few examples they can temporarily hide away from us, While we may Might see just The GFS and ECMWF reveal that event Storm Low to be impacted by Sudden NE USA SnowStorm Nor'easter Low ( I HOPE we get one rather than New York  Nor Easter Low... The Upgrade is worth it!!.

I await Tomorrow's GFS and UKMO run deals.

I admire the optomism Q.  But you have to admit, there has been a steady erosion of the cold over the past few days, with a gradual swing by all the models to the point the GEFS has now an air of mildness about it for the period after xmas into the new year.  

I think you are right though - once the bomb - if it will actually develop into one (at the moment, thats doubtful), develops it might add some confidence into the models as for the past few days micro developement it has spawned has resulted in very different outcomes.

However i do feel even that is starting to sure up now.

Yes I do think there have been downgrades (the 6Z today excepted) but not to the point where we have chosen quite yet. The cat is still dead and alive, or to put it less figuratively the models still really haven't plumped for one or the other.

18z vs 12z for the same timeframe, 18Z is notably more amplified than the 12z.

BTW if you want larger versions of any of my charts right click and an option to open the image is there. 

The milder solutions from the models are almost always the more likely outcome but the whilst models show the possibility of colder weather, there is always a chance that we may get some wintry stuff.

Whatever actually happens it is quite funny reading some of of the posts, you would actually think the model runs ARE actually what is happening or that the models cause the weather.😊

ECM and UKMO both bring in a brief easterly.

UKMO 120 is snowy for some in S England.  

One to watch.

Just a hint of some seriously cold air moving westwards in week 2, for those who like clutching at straws

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Both ECM and UKMO take the low off to the south east therefore introducing colder airmass into the mix creating a period of snow for Midlands, central southern and south east England,

Definitely something to watch!

It will be short lived as I don't see anything colder beyond new year, yet, i think we need to look to the second/third week of Jan to see any longevity in any cold weather IMHO.

I said yesterday that the trend had been to build HP further N than had previously been forecasted.

This may continue, and if you take the ECM 144 (which is in FI, the boundary of which stands this morning at t96), then a northward adjustment of a mere 200 miles would usher in a Polar continental for the South.

Fine margins.  The unusual bout of RaCy is causing huge uncertainty in model land and I think the GEFS are making an error in the modelling of the storm, therefore I am dismissing the entire suite this morning.  The GFS P is less wrong.  All IMHO of course!  Have a good day!

A clearer picture is now emerging in that the 27th December deepening low pressure takes a rather unusual SE'wards track close to or over the UK on route to somewhere in continental Europe.

As has been mentioned there is also the potential for a brief snow event  for some as the system engages some drier continental air on its departure.

Thereafter High Pressure rules the roost bringing us into a cold, frosty and pleasant new year. Longer term at the moment it would appear to be a Sceuro High meaning that the southern third of the country could remain rather cold with a weak continental influence, whereas the northwest will run the risk of atlantic frontal systems at times in slightly milder air.

Yes. Only have time to read the posts on here this morning, but that ECM 144 chart you've posted looks like a continuation of the trend on last night's 18z GFS, with the low pressure in the Atlantic further south and the high over the UK more solid. A good direction for a wintry feel.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Significant shift in GFS ENS with the OP, P OP and control all sinking the high that follows the weekend storm and bringing the Atlantic back in, along with the main cluster.
ECM and UKMO however still sink the low down SSE and introduce a brief continental flow before high pressure takes up residence.
In summary, it's GFS v ECM/UKMO with regard the weekend and the track of the low. Before that is resolved, no conclusions should be made for next week.

Pretty much sums up this morning's output gusty.

Also interesting to note that the Meto have stuck with their MRF overnight and are predicting snow in the North moving South during next week. Although this morning's model output is very different from yesterday's, there is still nothing I can see which would support that MRF. Next week looks dry with a block sitting close to our shores. 

If the Met stick with their MRF this afternoon it will be interesting to see if the 12zs offer any support.

A wintry ECM this morning with the weekend low dropping south and snow in its wake followed by a week of cold, frosty weather and a UK high, GFS totally different going zonal.

Andy

GFS does try and build HP to east post 240h. Any respite from the Atlantic does offer the opportunity for HP to develop in a colder position so,in the absence of any sign of  sustained northern blocking over Greenland still looking east for a real cold spell. 

0z ECM ensembles (with last night's 12z for comparison). It's gone back firmly towards the cold cluster, after a bit of uncertainty yesterday.

0z EPS postage stamps for day 5 (click for full-size version):

Anticyclonic cold by the looks of the rainfall totals