likewise, can I endorse this very well expressed sentiment completely....oh and great to to Retron posting here too...completely off topic..but in Chichester like many places today, it's a glorious winter day with that gorgeous soft winter golden sunlight...if we can't have snow then may this weather type continue for some time to come...and a very Happy Christmas to everyone on this great weather forum and thank you too to everyone involved in'behind the scenes' work to, including the moderators who have to deal with off topic posts like this one😛

The GFSP is an absolute stonker as we move into FI!!!!

The SH builds a little further north, propped up by a cute low over Poland (this is crucial)

Ridges toward Greenland - and the low moving in from the Atlantic (already on a southerly trajectory) starts to disrupt as it meets the British Isles.

Stronger ridging, more trough disruption. Likely much frontal stalling, giving some lucky western areas big snowfalls

Channel Low!! Blocking continues to the north

That is close to perfection for a great winter spell.

Trouble is, given the flip-flopping by all the models in recent times (GFS in particular), I doubt any model has a good handle on how the weather will pan out. Still, a bit of excitement on Xmas Eve!

When was the last time we had a genuine channel low? I've seen dozens of them modelled most winters.

Could it be enough to produce a fleeting Channel streamer/Kent Clipper, given the dewpoints and 850 hPa's by that time? Very borderline for that, I'd say.

Mind you, it is all at 100 hours away - not set in stone given how details are now chopping and changing more wildly than usual at the moment.

I was just saying over on the other site that this chart, despite being all the way out in fairy land, is more interesting to me than the particulars of any given synoptic setup - at least at this point. Positive height anomalies are forecast (at least in the 06Z) all the way across the entire polar region, setting up the possibility of too many options to countenance here, but many of which will present us with at least a bite at decent winter weather. Well worth watching the output with charts like this. Given the warming forecast on the Op (and, i'm lead to believe, other models too) for the stratosphere, the opportunities for cold weather in January are surely increasing. Of course, as ever, caution is required and it wouldn't be a great surprise to see nothing come to fruition for us at all - it remains only possible not probable at this point, at least in my view.

Quite right Ian. Things could look quite different come the day with some quite large changes run to run.

GEFS banging out a 40% between 27th/28th ... Highest % of this Winter so far 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Not counting any chickens though as we know how these things can go 

There are a number of excellent posters on here, but its great to have Darren back again. Would it be out of sorts to offer congratulations to him for (a) deciding which tea leaves to concentrate on from at least last Thursday 18th, (b) reading said tea leaves so intelligently, and (c) coaching some of us so well in what he was seeing.

(Off topic, but the mountains I look onto are getting quite a pounding of snow today, with the snow line steadily dropping and sitting around 1500 feet at present)

Its been a while since I've seen the North Sea convective snow machine being modelled.

Them Snow risk charts are not that good as a guide 

most just show some patchy rain/sleet

As does the NMM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014122406/nmm-1-88-0.png?24-12

And it looks like this morning was the last time I'll get to see temperatures being in double figures for quite a long while . .

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Folkestone_Harbour/long.html

It's a tad off topic, but someone - Darren I think - said at least it will be frosty. What do people enjoy about cold weather or frosty weather without snow? Genuine interested question. 

Frosty weather usually means sunshine, for one, and sharp, crisp cold air. Plus a heavy frost makes the landscape look nice.

What I hate is cold, raw grey days (like you usually get under an easterly!). If I can't have snow then I'd like sunshine and frost as a first preference, and very mild as a second choice.

For me, it's something different. Winter generally means a lot of grey, overcast, damp and mild conditions down here.

Sparkling blue skies with weak winter sunshine make a nice contrast and I generally find it more pleasant to be out and about in. The sight of hoar frost on the hedgerows and frozen puddles epitomises winter for me; it's certainly far more seasonal than the gunk we've had over the past few days. Snow, whilst lovely, is rare down here. Frosts on the other hand are more common, last year excepted (we had all of 2 frosts here last winter and they'd both lifted by mid-morning).

On another note, we can get dreary dull conditions with temperatures in the low double figures to low teens any time of year (albeit it's uncommon in July and August), but frost lasting all day can only happen during a handful of weeks - so when it's overcast and gloomy it feels like winter's slipping away.

I know frost should be common during winter but even so it is still an abnormal weather type which makes it interesting. Personally I like the clean feel of the air and walking over crunchy grass. The frost formations are fascinating too and not unlike snow can transform the landscape. But most importantly it means no mild damp gunk!

Aside from being at +384 hrs the only thing that chart really highlights to me at least the large uncertainly at that time scale, especially to our west and at some high latitudes? 

In the more realistic time scale it looks like an anticylclonic picture, chilly for some mild for others with possibly persistent fog or frost in areas away from onshore breezes. I dread to think what it will mean here but I could hazard a guess at nothing pleasant and almost certainly nothing wintry unless things change.

I think the far southeast (say from Yorkshire southwards ) may do a little better in terms of chilliness.

Edit: re. frosts, Rob's post sums up my thoughts on it too. I have just been out for a walk in the sunshine and through the frost, it was chilly but bright and fresh - very nice and helped by seeing my first wintry precipitation of the season (albeit a sleety mix rather than pure snow)

I've been thinking I should have a webcam on the roof, but haven't done any research yet.

Here are some links worth looking at tomorrow:

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover/
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover!aircraft!00!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/

You know how I've always mentioned a lack of data coverage over Christmas? Well, we'll be able to see if it really is the case with those links. At least it'll show one way or the other - and if there isn't any noteworthy drop it'll put an end to any Christmas data issue questions.

Time  Aircraft  Ship/Synop obs
23/06 113141 73720
23/12 112318 65868
23/18 192319 73024
24/00 193542 63402

Cold and frosty would generally mean nice crisp sunny days, personally am not a fan of dull cold days  as it might as well be mild etc.

Agreed , though a good all day long hoarfrost is also excellent

Freezing fog, if I can't have snow. We're very prone to it here in VoY, and it often gives some very low daily maxima and wonderful formations of rime. I like the other-worldliness of it, although of course that's accentuated if there's a nice cover of snow on the ground already (e.g. Dec 2010) 

I don't. Much sooner have a long fetch SW and temps of 10 to 12C meaning less heating costs. For those of us who haven't had a pay rise in the last 5 years that's more important than a frost. Besides, I can't be arsed scraping my car windscreen in the morning.... Bah humbug ... Grumble .... Groan 

;-)

Oh dear

In our house even with temps of 10-12 the lounge ( front of he house ) is still bloody cold, so the heating is on...................might as well be -22